The Fed continues to tilt more hawkish; U.S. rates market continues to adjust to the new Fed messaging; the week starts off quietly ahead of key inflation and retail sales data later this week; Brexit tensions are back
The dollar is slightly weaker on the day, but moves have been modest ahead of the U.S. holiday. The biggest headline came from Germany, with Olaf Scholz is set to become the next German Chancellor. Also, the RBNZ continued its fight against inflation overnight and raised interest rates by 25bps while signaling there is more to come.
October retail sales will be the data highlight; reports suggest President Biden has made his choice for Fed Chair; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November have started rolling out; BOC Governor Macklem is sounding more hawkish; U.K. reported solid labor market data
The U.S. Treasury will sell $56 bln of 3-year notes today; U.S. rates have fallen since the FOMC decision; Chile reported higher than expected October CPI; the ECB debate about inflation continues to rage; markets are still digesting last week’s shock decision from the Bank of England
The FOMC is expected to announced tapering when its two-day meeting ends this afternoon; ADP private sector jobs will be the data highlight; ISM services PMI for October will also be reported; ECB President Lagarde is pushing back harder against market tightening expectations
Democrats may be nearing a compromise that could unlock trillions in fiscal stimulus; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-October IPCA inflation; U.K. Chancellor Sunak will reportedly unfreeze public sector salaries next April; BOE tightening expectations are getting trimmed;
The hawkish wave continues to sweep more EM central banks, while isolating the remaining dovish few. In this report we elaborate on the recent changes in Poland, Colombia, Brazil, South Africa and South Korea.
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