US
USD is building on last week’s advances. This week’s set of US private-sector data will offer clues about the employment and inflation backdrop. Positive labor data would fuel further USD gains above the August high, while softer figures can trigger a partial USD pullback. Check-out our Drivers for the Week for all the details.
Crude oil prices are drifting lower despite OPEC+ plans to pause output hikes next year. OPEC+ matched expectations and agreed to raise output by 137k barrels a day in December. Beyond December, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to pause the increase in crude oil production in the first three months of 2026. The widening glut in crude oil remains a major headwind for crude oil prices. According to the IEA, global oil balances have seen a 1.9 mb/d surplus since the start of the year and are expected to reach a record surplus of 3.3 mb/d in 2026.
US October ISM manufacturing takes the spotlight today (3:00pm London, 10:00am New York). The headline index is projected at 49.5 vs. 49.1 in September, consistent with a slower contraction in manufacturing activity. Watch the prices paid and employment sub-indexes for signs that inflation risks are receding and job losses moderating.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the economy and monetary policy (7:00pm London, 2:00pm New York). This is her first speech on the economic outlook since the Trump administration’s attempt to have her removed from her post in late August. Ahead of her speech, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (non-voter) takes part in a moderated discussion (5:00pm London, 12:00pm New York).
According to Fed Chair Jay Powell, “there's a growing chorus” supporting skipping a cut ahead. Indeed, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (both 2026 FOMC voters) said they would have preferred to hold rates steady last week.
SWITZERLAND
CHF underperforms across the board. Swiss inflation unexpectedly cools in October, raising bets of additional Swiss National Bank (SNB) cuts. Headline CPI printed at 0.1% y/y (consensus: 0.3%) vs. 0.2% in September and is tracking below the SNB’s Q4 projection of 0.4%. Core CPI dipped to 0.5% y/y (consensus: 0.7%) vs. 0.7% in September.
The swaps market raised odds of a 25bps rate cut to -0.25% in the next twelve months to 70% vs. 50% previously. Regardless, CHF’s status at the ultimate store of value among fiat currencies offsets the drag from the likelihood of negative rates.
CHINA
USD/CNH is firmer above 7.1200 on USD strength. China manufacturing activity remains soggy. The private-sector RatingDog manufacturing PMI slipped in October to 50.6 (consensus: 50.7) vs. 51.2 in September. Encouragingly, the US and China trade truce improves the outlook for China’s manufacturing sector and supports CNH.
