Marc Chandler joined Brown Brothers Harriman in October 2005 as the Global Head of Currency Strategy. Previously he was the Chief Currency Strategist for HSBC Bank USA and Mellon Bank. A prolific writer and speaker, Chandler's essays have been published in the Financial Times, Barron's, Euromoney, Corporate Finance, and Foreign Affairs. Marc holds a Masters in American history from Northern Illinois University and a Masters in International Political Economy from the University of Pittsburgh. He has taught classes on International Political Economy at New York University since the early 1990s. In 2009, his first book, Making Sense of the Dollar, was published by Bloomberg Press.
China's markets have been closed since the end of September and re-open tomorrow. It is interesting to note what has happened in the global capital markets in the interim.
Volkswagen and the Euro: Preliminary Thoughts
The emission scandal at the world's second largest auto maker, Volkswagen, has reportedly "rocked" the German political and business elites. Some have argued that it will rival the refugee challenge for Germany. Others have argued that it is a source of euro weakness.
Catalan Election and the Under-Performance of Spain
Catalonia goes to the polls on September 27. Although efforts to hold a referendum on independence was stymied by Madrid, many partisans are claiming the weekend election is precisely such a referendum. Even if this is not legally true, a victory by a coalition of those seeking independence would intensify the confrontation with the federal government, ahead of the national elections that will be held later this year.
Last Minute Thoughts on the Federal Reserve
The much awaited FOMC meeting is here. Discussions appear to revolve around two main questions. What should the Fed do and what will it do? And the two are often confused.
Fed Hike Moving into Focus
The Federal Reserve provided limited forward guidance in today's statement, but what they did say is key.
Greece and the Future of Europe
In this edition of MarketView, Marc Chandler takes a look at the impact of the Greek crisis and Germany’s role in the future of the European Project.
Are Bunds and Euro Decoupling?
The relationship between German bunds and the euro appears to be decoupling. Marc Chandler offers possible explanations for the decrease in correlation.
FOMC Sticks to Its Course
The FOMC has left interest rates unchanged and remains on course for a hike later this year. Marc Chandler explains the market reaction and what to expect from the Fed later this year.
Notable Developments in Gold
Although the price of gold has remained relatively stable since last year, China, India, and Russia have become increasingly prominent buyers.
Moral Hazard Taken Too Far
Marc Chandler argues that there is a link between the terrible human tragedy in the Mediterranean and the ongoing Greek crisis- Europe's over-emphasis on moral hazard. Read more here.
ECB Sticks with Strategy
The ECB has opted to stick with its successful strategy of using QE to boost the economy. We summarize Draghi's four key policy points here.
Oil prices continue to fluctuate in response to geopolitical factors and shifts in production. Marc Chandler illustrates these dynamics and their correlation with individual currencies.
The Dollar and Equities Revisited
Correlations between the dollar and equity markets have shifted yet again; Marc Chandler provides an analysis on one of the most important themes in the first quarter.
Push Back – Costs of Rising Dollar
With numerous companies reporting that the dollar's appreciation has been an important headwind on their earnings, Marc Chandler argues this reasoning should be further analyzed.
The Context for Yellen
Testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Yellen is one of the few highlights this week. Rather than articulate new policy, she will focus on explaining the existing policy and remind the market to have patience around rate hikes.
Keeping Greece in the Euro is about far more than money
When European leaders talk about Greece, they speak the language of economics. In this opinion piece, first published in the Financial Times, BBH's Marc Chandler argues that they have chosen the wrong lingua franca. Geopolitics, far more than economics, is what is at stake.
Still Fishing for a Bottom (to interest rates)
Central banks across Europe are going through yet another major crisis and, contrary to popular belief, zero is no longer the bottom bound for interest rates. Marc Chandler outlines the recent changes, including today's move by the SNB.
FAQ – ECB and Greece
With the ECB announcing they are ending their waiver for Greek bonds, the situation in Europe has intensified. Check out this FAQ to learn about the repercussions, potential solutions, and what it all means for the future.
For Want of a Nail, the Kingdom was Lost
With fierce negotiations looming regarding Greece’s Eurozone status, Marc Chandler draws parallels with the economic situation in Egypt and argues that negotiating with Greece will ultimately be the less expensive option for the EMU.
New Italian Political Drama is about to Begin
Italy’s longest serving president, Giorgio Napolitano, has resigned. In this piece, we discuss Italy’s electoral process and Prime Minister Renzi’s chances of succeeding Napolitano.
Maybe the SNB is the Only Real Buyer of the Euro
Data from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has confirmed what the market has suspected – the SNB intervened in size to defend its cap against the euro last month. Read more on the two key drivers of the increase in reserves.
Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar
As the year winds down, the Gordian knot tying Russia, oil prices and China together, is receiving a great deal of attention. In this piece, Marc Chandler unravels some of the confusing twists and turns.
The Russian Enigma Unravels
Churchill once described Russian foreign policy as "... a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." Read here to find out more about Russian national interests and how this might hold the key to understanding its foreign policy.
China will adjust monetary policy shortly
China is expected to adjust monetary policy in the near-term, as a recent string of economic data has shown a continued loss of momentum for the economy. Click here to read more about the key developments in China.
OPEC RIP? Not So Fast
While many are proclaiming the death of OPEC, we warn investors why they should avoid a premature judgment.
CNBC Futures Now: Oil's Minsky Moment
Marc Chandler speculates that oil's Minsky Moment is approaching, not because
of the risk that oil prices will drop significantly in price, but because the market will
no longer have access to cheap funding. Check out the video here, or read more
All about Debase: Not
Meghan Trainor tells us it's "All about that bass," but it seems many reporters and analysts have mistaken this for "debase," as in currency wars.
FT Markets: American Bulls in Charge
In this spotlight on the US recovery, Marc Chandler credits US policy decisions for the recent dollar strength but warns bullish investors of the strength in consensus.
Marc Chandler on Bloomberg Surveillance
BBH Chief Currency Strategist Marc Chandler covers the globe in his discussion with Tom Keene: from how the ECB should react to the current strength of the Euro, to when the Dollar may finally get some traction, and closing with ideas around the implications of the widening of the USD/CNY band for China's economy.
CNBC Trading Block: All about Bernanke
With the Fed meeting scheduled for the end of this month, everyone is waiting on Bernanke’s next move. The meeting comes just ahead of an announcement on second quarter GDP which may affect the decisions around QE3.
Currency War: The Metaphor that Took on a Life of its Own
Marc Chandler and Alexandra Jostrom discuss the new rules of international engagement and how the term currency war was, arguably, a useful metaphor to illustrate tensions between countries, but that the term took on a life of its own on the international stage.
Could We Have a Two-Euro System?
Marc Chandler, BBH chief currency strategist, discusses the outlook for the euro and whether recent developments in Cyprus could lead to a two-euro system.
BBH Investors Roundtable
Chief Investment Strategist Scott Clemons leads a “roundtable” discussion featuring some of our most thoughtful professionals at BBH. Participants in the discussion cover a range of topics including taxes, interest rates, concerns for business owners, Europe, China, energy and housing.
Second Verse, Different than the First
Marc Chandler and Alexandra Jostrom reflect on global liquidity, and the European economic situation – touching on the effects of growing polarization in French politics, continuing turmoil in Greece, unease over the situation in Italy, Spain and Portugal – and the risk to the global economy emanating from the confrontation with Iran.
Crisis and Instability: Searching for Terra Firma
In September 2011, Europe’s nuclear research organization, European Center for Nuclear Research (CERN), announced that it believes that it has found some sub-atomic particles (neutrinos) that move faster than the speed of light. By Marc Chandler.
The Ugly Contest Just Got Uglier
Summers are supposed to be fun and relaxing. Not this one. A combination of events in late July and early August 2011 caused market strains that have not been seen since those dark days in the fall of 2008 and winter of 2009.
By Marc Chandler .
Special FX: Bretton Woods, R.I.P.
Richard Nixon unilaterally closed the gold window 40 years ago today.. No longer would the U.S. permit other countries to exchange their dollars for gold and by breaking that link, he ended the Bretton Woods international financial regime and ushered floating exchange rates that characterize the modern era.
Special FX: Homeland Investment Charade
Republicans and Democrats in the US Congress are having a difficult time agreeing on changing a law that will allow the federal government to pay for what it has already spent.
Special FX: China Update: Strong and Fragile
Many seasoned observers exaggerate China. Some do it to demonize it; others to celebrate it. After all, they speak of China as the factory of the world when it is really an assembler rather than producer. Recognizing, as such, its $3 trillion of reserves (and growing), we are told that China is the banker of the world, yet its financial system is fragile. This fragility, in fact, appears to have begun to hamper the projection of China’s financial power in recent weeks.