The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; May PPI surprised to the upside; May retail sales data are worth discussing; Canada reports May CPI; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 4.25%

U.S. rates have rebounded a bit ahead of today’s key data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision; May PPI and retail sales will be reported; June Fed manufacturing surveys will start to roll out

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. We expect a hawkish hold stemming from a shift in the Dot Plots, upgraded economic forecasts, and potential tapering talk.

U.S. rates remain low as we enter a crucial week for the bond market; first and foremost is the risk of a hawkish hold from the Fed; ahead of the FOMC decision Wednesday, the market will get some key U.S. data tomorrow

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

The G-7 summit begins today in Cornwall; May CPI data surprised the upside; yet U.S. rates continue to fall; next week’s FOMC meeting is coming into focus; weekly jobless claims data show continued healing of the labor market; Peru left rates on hold at 0.25% last night, as expected

Many emerging market (EM) economies are also facing near-term inflation shocks, but there has been a wide divergence between how central banks are facing it. Some have reacted by frontloading hikes, while others have stuck to a strategy of talking down inflation risks.

May CPI data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; BOC kept policy steady, as expected; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; Brazil’s May IPCA inflation came in decidedly strong; the ECB is expected to extend its accelerated asset purchases into Q3

U.S. JOLTS job openings came in very strong in April; The U.S. growth outlook for Q2 also remains strong; BOC is expected to keep policy steady; last night, Chile delivered a hawkish hold and is yet another sign that the global liquidity story is at an inflection point; Brazil and Mexico report May inflation

U.S. fiscal policy remains a big unknown; today is a light day in North America; Chile is expected to keep rates steady at 0.50%; Peru’s electoral board has not yet announced an official winner for the presidential race; BRL continues to test the R$5.00 level even as fiscal headlines weigh on fixed income markets

We are at an inflection point with regards to global monetary policy and liquidity. Some major central banks have already started tapering asset purchases, while others are inching closer to doing so.

We do not believe that tapering discussions have been derailed by the jobs report; the other big unknown right now is fiscal policy; the ruling party in Mexico (Morena) suffered a notable defeat in the midterm elections and lost its super-majority in the lower house; initial tallies from Peru’s crucial presidential runoff elections show surprising gains for Keiko Fujimori

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

May jobs data will be the highlight; ISM services PMI surprised to the upside; weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing; Chair Powell is the only Fed speaker today; Canada also reports May jobs data; Chilean assets were hit yesterday by a potential bill allowing investors to fully withdraw their pension savings

ADP reports private sector jobs data; ISM services PMI will be very important; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; the Fed was upbeat in its Beige Book report for the upcoming June 15-16 FOMC meeting

Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming June 15-16 FOMC meeting; add St. Louis Fed President Bullard to the list of Fed officials that are tilting more hawkish; yesterday’s survey data points to ongoing strength in U.S. economy; USD/CAD traded at a new low for this move just above 1.20 yesterday before recovering; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report

ISM PMI readings will be watched to see if they mirror last week’s blockbuster survey readings; Fed manufacturing surveys for May will wind up with Dallas today; Canada reports Q1 GDP and Markit May PMI

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. core PCE has taken on greater importance as the inflation debate rages; May Chicago PMI will be reported and there are upside risks to the consensus 68.0; weekly jobless claims data are worth a mention

Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; we get the first revision to Q1 GDP; Banco de Mexico minutes will be released

The drop in U.S. yields continues; more Fed officials are talking about talking about tapering; Hungary left rates on hold at 0.60% yesterday but confirmed its hawkish stance; RBNZ unexpectedly delivered a hawkish hold;

Markets have to start pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed going forward; stronger U.S. data ahead should feed into further tapering talk at the June 15-16 FOMC meeting; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; the prospect of left turn in Brazil’s politics is rising

Markets have to start pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed going forward; stronger U.S. data ahead should feed into further tapering talk at the June 15-16 FOMC meeting; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; the prospect of left turn in Brazil’s politics is rising

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Higher U.S. real rates are not doing the dollar any favors; preliminary May Markit PMI readings will be the highlight; research by the SF Fed suggests anecdotes of enhanced unemployment benefits keeping workers home are overstated; Canada reports March retail sales; BOC Governor Macklem delivered a sobering message regarding the housing market

FOMC minutes show that the Fed is now talking about talking about tapering; Kaplan is the only Fed speaker today; the Dot Plots for the June 15-16 FOMC meeting will take on more significance; Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be closely watched

Key FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports April CPI; Banco de Mexico official signaled low likelihood of any more rate cuts

With Fed officials remaining dovish as data paint a mixed picture for the U.S., markets are taking the dollar lower; Kaplan speaks today; Fed manufacturing surveys for May have started to roll out; Chilean assets have come under heavy pressure with the strong performance of far-left parties in the Constitutional Assembly elections

The dollar remains under pressure as U.S. rates continue to fall.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

The dollar is giving up some of its recent gains as U.S. rates fall. DXY is down after two straight up days and is trading soft after being unable to break above 91.

US inflation data will remain in focus; heavy US Treasury issuance this week concludes with a $27 bln sale of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims data may take on more importance after the big miss for April; Mexico, Chile, and Peru are all expected to keep rates steady

U.S. inflation data come into focus; we think that risks to US yields lie to the upside; it’s worth taking a look at how U.S. core and headline inflation have behaved historically to supply shocks; the U.S. labor market remains in flux; more states are rejecting the enhanced unemployment benefits; U.S. Treasury issuance continues with a $41 bln sale of 10-year notes

The debate about unemployment benefits is heating up after last week’s big miss on jobs; heavy US Treasury issuance this week starts off with a $58 bln sale of 3-year notes today; Fed speakers will remain plentiful; Brazil reports April IPCA inflation

The markets are still digesting the much weaker than expected jobs report from Friday; the debate between markets and the Fed has tilted more towards the latter; today is a quiet day in the U.S. before the upcoming flood of UST issuance and U.S. data

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

April jobs data will be the highlight; the U.S. growth outlook remains stronger than ever; the Fed’s financial stability report warned that rising risk appetite is stretching valuations and creating weakness in the US financial system; Canada also reports April jobs data; Mexico reports April CPI

It’s clear from the strong U.S. recovery and falling virus numbers that the Fed will have to continue unwinding its emergency measures. The Bank of Canada and the Bank of England have already stated adjusting their stance without causing much disruption, but it’s the Fed that really matters.

Comments by Treasury Secretary Yellen are worth discussing; ADP private sector jobs will be today’s highlight; ISM services PMI will also be reported; the U.S. growth outlook remains stronger than ever; Brazil is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 3.5%; Colombia central bank releases its quarterly inflation report

The outlook for major Latin American markets continues to deteriorate, despite the favourable commodity cycle and relatively higher rates to support local currencies. Local politics and unfavourable pandemic outcomes are still our main reasons for concern, but external factors – strong dollar and higher U.S. yield – also create additional headwinds.

U.S. data yesterday were mixed but still point to underlying strength in the economy; despite the PMI reading, the U.S. outlook remains stronger than ever; Fed speakers remain plentiful; COP is under heavy downward pressure on the back of negative political headlines

The U.S. economy continues to sizzle; therein lies the crux of our strong dollar outlook; April ISM manufacturing PMI is the data highlight

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

We got our first look at Q1 GDP yesterday; therein lies the crux of our strong dollar outlook; keep an eye on two spreads that will support our bearishness on the euro; today’s data highlight is April Chicago PMI; Colombia is expected to keep rate steady at 1.75%

U.S. yields are climbing as markets continue to digest the FOMC decision; the Fed delivered a dovish hold, as expected; markets are starting to look for signs of tapering and that was the first question for Powell; we get our first look at Q1 GDP; weekly jobless claims will be reported

The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; we will be putting out a lengthy piece this week about the Fed’s likely roadmap for tapering; U.S. yields are rising ahead of the decision

The two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-April IPCA inflation.

The latest Bloomberg survey shows growing expectations of Fed tapering in Q4; yields are picking a bit ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow and ends with a decision Wednesday afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Senate Republicans offered a $568 bln compromise spending package; President Biden will reportedly propose a hike in the capital gains tax; weekly jobless claims data point to a solid NFP reading; preliminary US Markit April PMI readings will be reported

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists explore the upbeat global economic outlook as the U.S. eyes a return to normalcy. We also provide our outlook on developed and emerging markets in Q2 2021.

US bond yields remain depressed; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims are for the BLS survey week; BOC delivered a hawkish hold; other central banks may also be willing to start tapering QE before year-end; Mexico reports mid-April CPI; ECB is expected to keep all policy settings unchanged

US bond yields remain depressed ahead of a 20-year bond auction; BOC meeting ends with a decision this morning; ahead of the decision, Canada reports March CPI; BRL saw some relief yesterday after congress (finally) agreed on the budget

The Bank of Canada meeting ends with a decision Wednesday. Some expect it to begin tapering its asset purchases but we think it may be too soon and so a dovish surprise is very possible. The policy rate will remain unchanged at 0.25% while updated macro forecasts will be presented in the quarterly monetary policy report.

Bitcoin saw a roughly 10% flash crash over the weekend; US Treasury yields continue to tumble; the Trudeau government releases its 2021 budget

Bitcoin saw a roughly 10% flash crash over the weekend; US Treasury yields continue to tumble; the Trudeau government releases its 2021 budget

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Yesterday’s US data was simply stellar; the US growth outlook remains very strong; yet bond yields tumbled; data today are minor

We are likely to get signs today that the U.S. economy continues to roar; March retail sales data will be the highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will start to roll out; weekly jobless claims should show resumed improvement in the labor market; Fed Beige Book report is worth a mention

Treasury Secretary Yellen is scheduled to issue her first semiannual FX report this Thursday. Here, we outline some possible changes based on our calculations for the criteria. However, this will be complicated by reports suggesting Yellen will ease some of the thresholds.

US yields are crashing lower and removing some crucial support for the dollar; US CPI came in a tad higher than expected; heavy US Treasury issuance this week was easily absorbed; Fed Beige Book report will be released

US inflation data will come back into focus; US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; all of this comes on top of heavy US Treasury issuance this week

US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; US inflation data will come into focus; weekly jobless claims were disappointing; Canada reports March jobs data; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; US inflation data will come into focus; weekly jobless claims were disappointing; Canada reports March jobs data; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation

Market expectations for Fed tightening continue to move the other way; FOMC minutes are worth a mention; Fed policymakers continue to stress the new outcome-based strategy; weekly jobless claims should show resumed improvement in the labor market; Mexico reports March CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%

Despite string US data, US yields continue to edge lower; FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports March Ivey PMI and February trade

President Biden’s path to the next round of stimulus just got easier; the US economy continues to roar; while US long yields have stabilized for now, market expectations for Fed tightening continue to adjust

Last week’s jobs data confirm our view that the US economy is gathering momentum; ISM services PMI will be today’s highlight; the US growth outlook remains very strong; Colombia reports March CPI

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Risk appetite is returning ahead of the Easter holidays. Equity markets are broadly higher, with gains of around 0.8% for EM Asian indices, the Nikkei adding 0.7%, and the EuroStoxx 600 up 0.5%. U.S. futures are pointing to a small positive open. Fixed income markets are stable after U.S. President Biden announced his fiscal plan, mostly as expected. The 10-year yield is at 1.72%. The dollar is mixed, weakening against EM currencies but slightly firmer against majors. Oil is bouncing back ahead of the OPEC meeting, with Brent up 1.5% to $63.7 per barrel.

Reports say that Biden new stimulus plan is around $2.25 tln; more details later today; Euro area inflation increased in March, but Laggard talks down any risk; Brazil's president Bolsonaro has reshuffled his cabinet towards a more centrist configuration, a short-term positive; Turkish central bank has a new deputy head; the lira remains under pressure; Indonesia's central bank now owns more bonds than offshore investors

The next fiscal package is shaping up to be quite large and focusing on infrastructure. The EU has hardened its position towards AstraZeneca vaccines. Oil prices were under pressure from favorable news regarding the Suez Canal ship blockage. Geopolitical tensions surrounding China are set to worsen but probably not leading to disruptive action. BOJ minutes reinforced the bank's pro-active yet accommodative mode.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Equities across the APAC region closed the week on the front foot, following the U.S. close higher on positive vaccine distribution news. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp were both +1.5%. Oil resumed its journey higher as the container stuck in the Suez Canal showed no sign of moving (Brent is back to $63). Treasury yields were higher following the poor 7-year note auction yesterday, leaving the 10-year yields at 1.65%. The dollar is mostly weaker, down about 0.5% against commodity currencies (NOK, AUD, MXN) but slightly stronger against the yen. TRY is underperforming, with USD/TRY back above the 8.0 mark.

APAC equities were mixed with the Nikkei closing 1%, Chinese indices little changed, and the India Sensex down 0.7%. EU and UK showed signs that vaccine sharing could be achieved while FED Powel was bullish on unemployment and growth, and still looking through inflation. This helped stabilize equity markets in Europe, which are little changed to slightly lower. U.S. futures are slightly higher. The dollar is mixed but mostly trading in narrow ranges, same for sovereign debt yields. Brent crude declined 1% in Asia Efforts to dislodge the Suez Canal blockage continued with it likely being days before trade can resume.

Risk sentiment remains fragile across markets. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are stable at just over 1.60% after a large downward move yesterday. Global equity markets are broadly weaker, especially in Asia, though U.S. equity futures are slightly higher. The dollar is mixed, weakening against commodity currencies (NOK, ZAR, MXN) but broadly weaker against most major currencies. Oil prices are staging a tentative rebound after the sharp drop over the last few sessions.

The same underlying risks continue to dominate market sentiment: concerns about rising yields, the threat of a third wave of the virus globally, the spat over the AstraZeneca vaccine, and US/Chinese tensions.

Turkish President Erdogan shocked the market by replacing the central bank governor, sending the lira on a tailspin; The virus dramas continue to deepen with some E.U. countries moving towards extending lockdowns and threatening to block vaccine exports to the U.K.; Market pricing for the first Fed hike continues to adjust towards earlier tightening; The increase in global yields has been a global phenomenon, but it has been happening faster and earlier in EM than in developed markets.; The PBoC kept its lending rates unchanged, as expected.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

US Treasury yields are off their recent highs but the situation remains tense; market pricing for the first Fed hike continues to adjust; strong US data should keep pressure on US rates to move higher; Canada reports January retail sales; BOE delivered a dovish hold, as expected; Reports suggest the UK and EU may reach an agreement on financial regulation by the end of this month; Russia opted to kick off the tightening cycle

The FOMC delivered exactly what was expected; Chair Powell stuck with the party line; US yields continue to climb in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC decision; Brazil delivered a stronger tightening in its first move of the cycle

The Bank of Japan starts a two-day meeting Thursday. Given the massive fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, no change in the major monetary policy settings is expected. However, the policy review may result in some cosmetic changes that are likely to have very little market significance.

The FOMC ends a two-day meeting with a likely dovish hold this afternoon; markets are clearly not on board with the Fed’s messaging on rates US rates are at the highs ahead of the decision; February retail sales data are worth discussing; Canada reports February CPI; Brazil is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 2.5%

The Bank of England wraps up its meeting with a decision Thursday. It is widely expected to remain on hold whilst acknowledging an improved economic outlook. Recent comments suggest little official concern yet about rising yields and so we believe gilt yields are likely to continue rising, lending sterling some support.

The FOMC begins a two-day meeting that ends with a decision tomorrow; February retail sales data will be the US data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for March have started to roll out; Brazil’s economy expanded faster than expected in January, which should embolden the central bank to validate the rate hikes priced in

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. We expect another dovish hold, with Powell underscoring that Fed policy is going nowhere anytime soon. With the US economy surging, we suspect the Fed can do little to keep rates down and so the dollar is likely to continue benefitting from rising yields as a result.

Reports suggest President Biden is planning a major tax hike to help pay for the infrastructure bill; the US curve continues to steepen ahead of the FOMC meeting; Fed manufacturing surveys for March start to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

US Treasury yields are back on the upswing; US PPI data will be the highlight; Canada reports February jobs data

US inflation concerns have eased, at least for now; the 10-year Treasury auction yesterday saw enough demand not to rattle markets but was by no means strong; President Biden got his first major political victory with the stimulus bill passing the House; February budget statement is worth discussing; Brazil reports February IPCA inflation; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%

US inflation data take center stage; heavy US Treasury issuance continues; President Biden’s stimulus plan should be approved today in the House; February budget statement will draw some attention; Canada is expected to keep policy unchanged

The US fiscal stimulus narrative is by no means over; US 10-year yields are off their recent highs, now around 1.52%; volatility in the bond markets comes alongside US Treasury issuance this week; it was a perfect storm for Brazil; Mexico reports February CPI

The US curve continues to steepen to new highs; near-term inflation expecations in the US contiue to rise, but longer-dated measures have been lagging, which can be seen as a positive sign for the Fed; US bond market faces some serious challenges this week; President Biden’s stimulus plan enters the final stretch

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture

February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture

February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture

The US economy is gathering momentum in Q1; Democratic lawmakers are moving ahead with a relief package that does not contain a minimum wage provision; Senator Warren unveiled her proposal for a wealth tax

All eyes are on the US bond market this week; the dollar is the missing piece of the reflation trade as it builds on its Friday turnround; this week offers Fed officials a final opportunity to hone their message to the markets; February ISM manufacturing PMI will be the data highlight The ECB releases details of its bond-buying operations for last week; Germany reports February CPI; firm final eurozone February manufacturing PMI readings were reported BOJ stand ready to maintain YCC ahead of the policy meeting March 18-19; RBA announced a substantial increase of its YCC efforts by increasing the amounts and maturities of its purchases; the drama comes ahead of the RBA meeting tomorrow; Caixin reported softer China manufacturing PM; IHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is overhauling its weightings and composition; Korea reported firm February trade data; crypto currencies have had a wild ride over the last few sessions

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

The Fed’s nonchalance regarding rising yields is noteworthy; The ECB continues to jawbone rising yields; if actual bond purchases can’t stop yields from rising, mere jawboning will have little lasting impact; France and Spain gave us the first snapshots for February CPI; Japan data came in better than expected; BOJ Governor Kuroda stressed steady policy to parliament; Australia yields continued to rise despite RBA intervention; BOK also joined in the bond purchase action to stabilize rising yields; India reports Q4 GDP data

The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up

The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up

The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up

US Treasury yields continue to march higher, increasing concerns about the potential impact on other assets; we suspect the bond market is keeping a close eye in President Biden’s relief package; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

The global increase in longer-dated yields continues; US surveys for February will continue to roll out; Canada reports December retail sales

•January retail sales data may have been a game-changer; really, data this week have been pretty much everything a dollar bull could ask for; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; FOMC minutes are worth discussing

January retail sales data will be the US data highlight; January PPI data will also hold some interest; some cracks may be starting to appear; FOMC minutes will be released this afternoon; Canada reports January CPI

With the impeachment trial over, Congress turns its attention back to the stimulus package; the US curve continues to steepen to new highs; January retail sales data tomorrow will be key for the dollar’s near-term outlook; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will start to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing as they suggest labor market stress is ongoing; Treasury completed its sale of $126 bln in total coupon debt this week; the CBO forecasts a wider budget deficit for 2021

January CPI came in lower than expected; Treasury will sell $27 bln of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims data will be watched for signs of improvement

January CPI data will be the US data highlight; Treasury will sell $41 bln of 10-year notes; January budget statement will draw some attention;

Our take on the latest drives for EM Asian markets.

Reports suggest President Biden is likely to push through much of his aid proposal without Republican support; high yield corporate bonds are extending their rally; US Treasury will sell $58 bln of three-year notes