U.S. yields remain depressed on recession fears; the U.S. yield curve is flattening but nowhere near inverting; ISM manufacturing PMI will be today’s data highlight; June eurozone CPI came in hot; yet ECB tightening expectations have softened; Japan reported June Tokyo CPI; Q2 Tankan survey was mixed; the Antipodean currencies remain under pressure; Caixin reported its June manufacturing PMI

Fed Chair Powell made some rare comments about the dollar; Chicago PMI will be today’s highlight; May core PCE will be closely watched; Colombia is expected to hike rates 150 bp to 7.5%; BOE Governor Bailey did sterling no favors; the Riksbank hiked rates 50 bp to 0.75%, as expected; Japan reported weak May IP and housing starts data; China reported strong official June PMI readings

Fed officials remains hawkish; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June were uniformly weak; reports suggest the internal debate about the ECB crisis tool continues; June eurozone CPI readings take center stage; Hungary delivered a hawkish surprise; Japan reported May retail sales and June consumer confidence; Australia reported strong May retail sales

Fed tightening expectations have steadied but remain off the recent highs; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June will wrap up; ECB President Lagarde affirmed plans to hike rates July 20; Brexit tensions are picking up; Hungary is expected to hike the base rate 50 bp to 6.40%; China cut the required quarantine times for international arrivals; PBOC Governor Yi pledged to maintain stimulus

Fed tightening expectations have steadied but remain off the recent highs; most ECB speakers this week are centered around the ECB forum that begins tonight in Sintra; while the ECB has a single mandate of price stability, it has an unofficial second mandate of fighting so-called fragmentation; Brexit remains in the headlines; the summary of discussions from the June 16-17 BOJ meeting suggests there is no rush to remove accommodation

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. yields remain low as recession fears rise; the U.S. yield curve is flattening but nowhere near inverting; Fed Chair Powell broke no new ground in his testimony before the House; Mexico hiked rates 75 bp to 7.75%, as expected; June German IFO business climate came in soft; U.K. reported soft May retail sales; U.K. politics are heating up; Japan reported May national CPI readings

Fed Chair Powell finally acknowledged recession risks are building; Fed expectations are pretty much unchanged after Powell; yet U.S. yields are falling again as risk-off impulses build; Mexico is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 7.75%; eurozone reported weak preliminary June PMI readings; ECB tightening expectations have eased; Norway hiked rates 50 bp to 1.25%; Turkey kept rates steady at 14.0%, as expected; former head of FX policy at Japan’s Finance Ministry Takehiko Nakao said markets shouldn’t rule out unilateral intervention

The recovery in U.S. yields has been halted by the return of risk-off impulses; Fed tightening expectations have fallen a bit; Powell delivers his semi-annual testimony before the Senate; Canada reports May CPI data; the ECB seems to be following a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding its planned crisis tool; Italy is back in the headlines due to rising political risks; U.K. reported May CPI data; South Africa reported May CPI; Czech National Bank is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 6.75%; the BOJ minutes are worth discussing;

With recession fears rising, May Chicago Fed NAI takes center stage; housing data will remain in focus as weakness in that sector persists; Canada reports April retail sales; Brazil COPOM minutes will be released; ECB President Lagarde affirmed liftoff next month; Chief Economist Pill said the BOE is prepared to sacrifice growth in order to bring down inflation; RBA released the findings of its review of YCC; Korea reported trade data for the first 20 days of June

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. yields are stabilizing; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; the euro has recovered on reports that the ECB anti-crisis tool is starting to take shape; BOE Chief Economist Pill identified some triggers that would require more forceful action; BOJ kept all policy settings unchanged, as expected; stresses in the JGB market are rising

The Fed hiked rates 75 bp, as expected; Fed tightening expectations have picked up significantly; U.S. yields have recovered; BOE hiked rates 25 bp to 1.25%, as expected; the ECB emergency meeting yielded nothing but disappointment; SNB surprised markets with a 50 bp hike to -0.25% and signaled a shift in its FX intervention policy; BOJ began its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep all policy settings unchanged when it ends tomorrow

The two-day FOMC ends today with a rate hike; new macro forecasts and Dot Plots will be released; we also note that QT announced at the May 3-4 FOMC meeting starts today; May retail sales will be reported ahead of the FOMC decision; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 13.25%; the euro is higher after the ECB announced an emergency meeting today in response to growing concerns about fragmentation; we are shocked that the ECB wasn’t better prepared for the fallout

U.S. yields continue to rise; the rise in short-end U.S. yields reflects significantly higher Fed tightening expectations; portions of the U.S. yield curve have inverted again; monthly U.K. data dump started out very weak; Brexit remains in the headlines; we think the rising risks of fragmentation are a major factor behind subsequent euro weakness; BOJ bought JGBs to defend its Yield Curve Control target; China is reimposing some COVID restrictions as virus numbers rise

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. yields continue to rise; the rise in short-end U.S. yields reflects heightened Fed tightening expectations; May CPI data will be the main event; Canada highlight will be May jobs data; ECB kept rates steady but flagged a 25 bp hike in July; ECB tightening expectations have picked up; ECB simply did not seem overly concerned about the risks of rising peripheral yields; Brexit appears to be coming to a head once again; Japan officials have renewed their warnings about the weak yen

Rates are moving in favor of the dollar; the rise in short-end U.S. yields reflects heightened Fed tightening expectations; the ECB is widely expected to keep rates steady whilst setting the table for July liftoff; the ECB could announce some details of a new emergency bond-buying program; Japan reported solid May machine tool orders; the RBNZ laid out details for planned QT; China reported firm May trade data

U.S. yields are moving higher; consumer credit continues to surge; reports suggest Michael Barr’s confirmation as Fed Vice Chair for supervision will be smooth sailing; reports suggest the U.K. is pressing ahead with plans to unilaterally rewrite parts of the Brexit accord; ECB tightening expectations have picked up ahead of tomorrow’s decision; Germany reported weak April IP; Japan reported final Q1 GDP data; India hiked rates 50 bp to 4.90%, as expected; Thailand delivered a hawkish hold

U.S. yields are moving higher; Chile is expected to hike rates from 8.25% currently; U.K. Prime Minister Johnson survived the no confidence vote; reports suggest ECB policymakers remain very concerned about peripheral spreads; Germany reported very weak data; Turkey President Erdogan is showing no inclination to let the central bank hike rates; Japan reported weak April household spending and cash earnings data; RBA delivered a hawkish surprise with a 50 bp hike to 0.85% vs. 25 bp expected

Data last week confirmed our view that concerns about a U.S. recession are overdone; U.S. yields are moving higher as a result; the Fed is likely to remain on its aggressive tightening path; U.K. Prime Minister Johnson will face a no confidence vote tonight; reports suggest the ECB will firm up plans for a new bond-buying program this week; the BOJ shows no signs of pivoting from its current ultra-loose policies

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Markets are marking time ahead of the U.S. jobs data; Fed Vice Chair Brainard remains hawkish; eurozone reported weak April retail sales; the ECB meets next week with an uncertain economic backdrop; Turkey reported May CPI and PPI data; Japan Prime Minister Kishida signaled steady policy ahead; incoming Australia Prime Minister Albanese is setting the table for higher wages; Korea reported May CPI

Data so far this week have helped dispel some of the U.S. recession fears; ADP private sector jobs data will be today’s data highlight; Bank of Canada hiked rates 50 bp to 1.50%, as expected; eurozone reported April PPI; the public ECB policy debate continues; Switzerland reported May CPI; Saudi Arabia is prepared to boost its oil output to make up for any sanctions-related loss from Russia

U.S. yields continue to recover; May ISM manufacturing PMI will be today’s data highlight; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the June 14-15 FOMC meeting; BOC is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.50%; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report; ECB tightening expectations are rising; Germany reported weak April retail sales data; BOJ remains ultra-dovish;

U.S. yields are recovering as inflation concerns rise; Fed officials remain hawkish; ahead of the jobs report, important survey data will be reported; eurozone May CPI data continue to worsen; the public ECB policy debate is likely to continue; Japan reported mixed data; China reported firm official May PMI readings; oil prices are rallying after the EU reached a compromise to ban most Russian crude

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. rates markets are pricing in increasing odds of a U.S. recession; April core PCE will be the U.S. data highlight; the U.S. housing sector is softening and that's what rate hikes are supposed to do; Banco de Mexico minutes were hawkish; Chancellor Sunak bowed to pressure and announced an aid package for U.K. households; Japan reported softer May Tokyo CPI data

U.S. yields continue to fall from the early May peaks; FOMC minutes are worth discussing; we disagree with the markets’ dovish take; the ECB signaled it is in no hurry to begin QT; it seems to be following the Fed’s old playbook, stretching out the sequential steps of tightening; China’s Premier Li Keqiang continues to sound the alarm about the slowing economy

FOMC minutes will be released; flash May PMI and Richmond Fed readings were softer than expected; Brazil mid-May IPCA inflation came in higher than expected at 12.20% y/y; Deputy Governor Heath said Banxico may need to hike another 2-3 percentage points; the U.S. has likely to pushed Russia into default; the ECB sounded some warnings in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review; more ECB officials are lining up behind President Lagarde

U.S. yields have fallen sharply from the early May peaks; regional Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; Brazil reports mid-May IPCA inflation; reports suggest some ECB hawks were unhappy with President Lagarde’s forward guidance yesterday; Lagarde pushed back today; eurozone reported solid preliminary May PMI readings; U.K. reported weak preliminary May PMI readings; Russia eased key capital controls as the ruble continues to gain

Short-term rates continue to move against the dollar; we continue to believe that U.S. recession fears are overblown; ECB President Lagarde is validating recent hawkish comments from her colleagues; Israel is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.60%; President Biden announced the creation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework; Biden also said he will review existing tariffs on Chinese imports;

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

We believe much of this week’s price action was driven by a short squeeze for the foreign currencies; we note more observers are getting concerned about U.S. recession risks; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May have so far been weak; U.K. reported better than expected April retail sales; U.K. GfK consumer confidence came in weaker than expected; BOE Chief Economist Pill sounded hawkish

Fed officials remain hawkish; U.S. rates market is reflecting concerns about the economy; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue rolling out; ECB releases its account of the April meeting

Chair Powell said the Fed will continue hiking until inflation comes down; Fed tightening expectations picked up a bit; April retail sales data support our view that the U.S. economic outlook remains solid; U.S. yields are moving higher in response to the strong data and hawkish Powell comments; Canada highlight will be April CPI data; U.K. reported April CPI data

April retail sales data will be the highlight; Fed tightening expectations remain steady; the euro is rallying on hawkish ECB comments; eurozone data came in slightly better than expected; reports suggest the U.K. will lay out its plans to unilaterally change the Brexit trade deal; U.K. reported firm labor market data

U.S. yields are edging higher as risk off sentiment ebbs; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May will start rolling out; the EC cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone; BOE officials will take questions from the Treasury Select Committee; HKD continues to trade at the weak end of its trading band; China reported weak April IP and retail sales data; new BOK Governor Rhee said he cannot rule out a 50 bp rate move

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Fed Chair Powell helped boost sentiment yesterday by downplaying risks of a 75 bp move; U.S. data calendar is light; the heavy slate of UST issuance ended on a strong note; Mexico hiked rates 50 bp to 7.0%, as expected, but hinted at larger moves ahead; reports suggest PM Minister Johnson has ordered his government to slash U.K. civil service jobs in order to offset possible tax cuts;

The Hong Kong dollar is trading at the weak end of its trading band, leading the HKMA to intervene today for the first time since early 2019. While we see no threat to the peg, ongoing weakness in the mainland China economy is likely to keep HKD weak for the foreseeable future. This in turn will put downward pressure on the Hong Kong economy.

U.S. yields are lower as risk off sentiment takes hold; April U.S. PPI data now takes center stage; Fed officials remain hawkish; the heavy slate of UST issuance concludes; both Mexico and Peru are expected to hike rates 50 bp; more ECB officials are on board with July liftoff; yet ECB tightening expectations remain subdued; U.K. monthly data dump was weaker than expected

Market expectations for Fed tightening have cooled a bit; April U.S. CPI data takes center stage; the heavy slate of UST issuance continues; Brazil reports April IPCA inflation; ECB President Lagarde all but signed off on July liftoff; Brexit is back in the headlines; CZK is underperforming due to concerns about monetary policy; sentiment during the Asian session recovered as China’s virus numbers improved

The rise in U.S. yields has stalled out; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers will spread the word this week; there is a heavy slate of UST issuance due to the quarterly refunding; German ZEW survey for May was mixed; BOE’s Saunders continues to push for front-loading its tightening cycle; BOJ is showing no signs of abandoning YCC; the Fed highlighted crypto risks in its most recent financial stability report

U.S. yields continue to rise; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers will spread the word this week; Mexico reports April CPI; ECB officials continue to sound hawkish; ECB tightening expectations have picked up modestly; one unfortunate by-product of ECB hawkishness is rising peripheral spreads

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Markets continue to reprice the Fed; U.S. yields are rising again; April jobs data will be the highlight; Canada also reports April jobs data; Chile delivered a hawkish surprise yesterday; markets are still digesting the BOE’s disastrous decision; updated macro forecasts contained the worst of all worlds; ECB officials continue to tilt hawkish;

The Fed hiked rates 50 bp, as expected; more aggressive market pricing for rate hikes suggests the initial dovish take on Powell was wrong; U.S. yields are rising again; Chile is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 8.0%; BOE hiked rates 25 bp to 1.0%, as expected; eurozone data came in weak; Norges Bank kept rates steady at 0.75%, as expected; Czech Republic is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 5.5%; Poland is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 5.5%; Caixin reported weak April China services and composite PMI readings

U.S. yields remain elevated ahead of the FOMC decision; the Fed is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.0% and announce QT; April ISM services PMI will be the data highlight; ADP reports its private sector jobs data; Treasury makes its quarterly refunding announcement; Brazil is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 12.75%; the EU will announce another round of Russian sanctions

U.S. yields are rising again; the two-day FOMC meeting starts today and is expected to end tomorrow with a 50 bp hike to 1.0%; the Fed is also likely to announce Quantitative Tightening; ECB tightening expectations remain subdued; Russia has avoided a technical default; RBA surprised markets with a 25 bp hike to 0.35%; RBA tightening expectations jumped

U.S. yields are rising again; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; April ISM manufacturing PMI will be the highlight; ECB tightening expectations remain subdued; eurozone reported mixed data; Japan reported some minor data overnight

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. yields are edging higher as risk-off impulses ease; higher U.S. rates and periodic bouts of risk-off impulses are only part of the strong dollar narrative; March core PCE reading will be important; we believe the Q1 GDP reading was a quirk that will not impact Fed policy; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; Colombia is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 6.0%; eurozone inflation may be topping out

U.S. yields are edging higher as risk-off impulses ease; Fed tightening expectations remain robust; Germany said its companies will continue to pay for Russian gas in euros or dollars; Germany cut its 2022 growth forecast to 2.2% from 3.6% seen in January; eurozone April inflation readings have started to trickle out; ECB tightening expectations have fallen significantly; Riksbank delivered a surprise 25 bp rate hike; BOJ meeting ended with a dovish hold; updated macro forecasts suggest no tightening until FY25;

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key factors driving global economies.

U.S. yields are edging higher as risk-off impulses ease; DXY traded today at a new cycle high near 102.777; Fed tightening expectations remain robust; President Biden’s Fed nominations are falling into place; Brazil reports mid-April IPCA inflation; Russia announced it would halt natural gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria; eurozone consumer confidence measures continue to crumble

U.S. yields are edging lower as risk-off impulses linger; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; ECB hawks remain vocal

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. yields are rising again; Fed Chair Powell added to the hawkish Fed chorus; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; S&P Global (formerly Markit) preliminary April PMI readings will be the highlight; Canada highlight is February retail sales data; ECB President Lagarde offered a more nuanced view of the state of affairs than the hawks; U.K. reported weak March retail sales data

U.S. yields are starting to rise again; Fed Beige Book set the table for a 50 bp hike at the May 3-4 FOMC meeting; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; Canada March CPI data came in hot; more ECB officials are tilting hawkish

U.S. yields have reversed lower today in what seems like a corrective phase across the rates markets; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming May 3-4 FOMC meeting; some Fed officials are sounding a bit more cautious; Canada highlight is March CPI data; ECB hawks continue to undermine Madame Lagarde’s message; BOJ reiterated its commitment to Yield Curve Control in response to rising yields

Inflation data and a hawkish Fed are keeping upward pressure on U.S. yields; Fed officials remain hawkish; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; ECB tightening expectations continue to adjust after the meeting; recent verbal intervention has done nothing for the yen

Inflation data and a hawkish Fed are keeping upward pressure on U.S. yields; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; markets are still digesting the dovish surprise from the ECB last week; ECB hawks continue to undermine Lagarde; official concern with the weak yen is intensifying

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. rates have resumed their move higher; Fed officials remain hawkish; the Fed’s pivot to limiting demand is noteworthy; retail sales data are worth discussing; despite the holiday, some U.S. data will be reported; ECB delivered a dovish surprise

March PPI data suggests price pressures are far from topping out; yet bonds continued to rally after the PPI data; Fed tightening expectations have fallen despite the inflation data; retail sales data will be important; BOC held a press conference and an FOMC meeting broke out; ECB is expected to keep policy steady but beware of a hawkish tilt

Fed officials remain hawkish; we think many are coming around to the notion that the Fed has to move into restrictive policy; March PPI will be reported; bonds rallied after the CPI data; bull steepening should continue near-term; Canada is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.0%; Chile central bank minutes will be released; U.K. March CPI data came in hot;

U.S. rates continue to move higher; Fed officials remain hawkish; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; March CPI data will be reported; Brazil central bank President Roberto Campos Neto said he was surprised by recent inflation data; German April ZEW survey came in slightly better than expected

U.S. rates continue to move higher; Fed officials are likely to remain hawkish; France held its presidential election Sunday; U.K. began its monthly data dump on a soft note

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Fed officials remain hawkish; U.S. yields continue moving in the dollar’s favor; Canada reports March jobs data; BOC tightening expectations are running hot; Chile reports March CPI; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation; account of the March ECB meeting tiled hawkish; ECB tightening expectations remain heightened; Russia delivered a surprise 300 bp rate cut to 17.0%.

FOMC minutes tilted hawkish, as expected; the 2- to 10-year curve is no longer inverted; Mexico reports March CPI; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 4.5%; ECB minutes will be a major highlight;

Hawkish Fed comments continue to roil the rates markets; Fed tightening expectations remain heightened; U.S. yields continue moving in the dollar’s favor; the 2- to 10-year curve is no longer inverted; FOMC minutes will be released; as we warned yesterday, default risk has risen for Russia

U.S. yields continue moving in the dollar’s favor; the U.S. 2- to 10-year curve remains inverted; March ISM services PMI is the main highlight; default risk has risen after the Treasury Department banned Russia from making any debt payments through U.S. banks

This is a very quiet week for the U.S. in terms of data; U.S. yields have resumed moving in the dollar’s favor; another portion of the U.S. yield curve has inverted; Colombia central bank minutes will be released; ECB tightening expectations remain heightened after last week’s CPI shocker

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. rates are on the rise again; March jobs data will be the highlight; ISM manufacturing PMI will be reported after the jobs data; Gazprom has sent new payment order to its customers with new payment requirements; eurozone CPI came in much higher than expected;

Some risk-off sentiment is creeping back into the markets; February core PCE will be very important; March Chicago PMI will be closely watched; Canada January GDP will be reported; Colombia is expected to hike rates 150 bp to 5.5%; key eurozone CPI data continue to emerge; meanwhile, the real sector data remain weak

The relentless rise in U.S. rates is taking a pause; another portion of the U.S. yield curve inverted briefly yesterday; ADP private sector jobs data will be the reported; Chile delivered a dovish surprise; some positive headlines regarding Ukraine have helped boost market sentiment; key eurozone CPI readings are starting to emerge; ECB tightening expectations have picked up further

U.S. rates continue to move in the dollar’s favor; demand weakened for the first leg of Treasury’s heavy coupon issuance this week; portions of the U.S. yield curve remain inverted; Chile is expected to hike rates 175 bp to 7.25%; ECB officials continue to tilt hawkish; ECB tightening expectations have picked up further

A portion of the US yield curve has inverted. While this is not the typical 3-month to 10-year inversion that presages a recession, markets are nevertheless on heightened alert. This piece will discuss the predictive power of an inverted yield curve and will show why we are not yet concerned that one will materialize.

The selloff in global bond markets continues; this is a big data week for the U.S. and yet the readings are unlikely to have much impact on markets or policy; U.S. rates continue to move in the dollar’s favor; BOJ underscored its dovishness by defending its Yield Curve Control target; the yen weakened sharply as a result; officials gave the first inkling of concern about yen weakness

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Fed officials are clearly open to a 50 bp hike at the May 3-4 meeting; manufacturing data have come in largely firmer in March; weekly jobless claims point to a tight labor market; Brazil reports mid-March IPCA inflation; German IFO business climate survey came in soft; U.K. reported weak February retail sales

Fed messaging remains hawkish; market pricing for Fed tightening continues to adjust as one would expect; Mexico is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 6.5%; preliminary eurozone and U.K. March PMI readings were reported; Chancellor Sunak offered no surprises in his budget statement; Norges Bank hiked rates 25 bp to 0.75%, as expected; SNB kept rates steady at -0.75%, as expected; SARB is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 4.25%.

Fed messaging remains as hawkish as ever; it wasn’t just Bullard, as Daly added to the hawkish chorus; market pricing for Fed tightening continues to adjust as one would expect; parts of the U.S. yield curve continue to flirt with inversion; U.K. Chancellor Sunak gives his budget statement shortly; U.K. reported higher than expected February CPI data; Hungary hiked the base rate 100 bp to 4.4% and signaled a longer cycle ahead

Market pricing for Fed tightening continues to adjust after last week’s hawkish FOMC; U.S. rates continue to move in the dollar’s favor; ECB President Lagarde downplayed recession risks; Egypt’s central bank hiked rates unexpectedly

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. rates continue to move higher; inflation data will remain in focus for the U.S.; the Fed is on track to start the tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike next week; the 30-year auction ended this week’s coupon issuance on a strong note; Canada reports February jobs data; Brazil reported February IPCA inflation; ECB delivered a hawkish hold; however, the bank dropped its pledge to end APP “shortly” before rates rise;

Recent moves in 2-year yield differentials are mixed for the dollar; the Fed is on track to start the tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike next week; inflation data will come into focus for the U.S.; the heavy auction schedule for U.S. Treasury coupon paper concludes; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 4.0%; market sentiment has turned sour again after a Ukraine-Russia summit yielded no progress; ECB decision is due out shortly

Market sentiment has improved modestly on some positive Ukraine headlines; yield differentials continue to favor the dollar; the heavy auction schedule for U.S. Treasury coupon paper continues; Mexico reports February CPI; the euro is enjoying a little bounce ahead of the ECB decision; we expect the ECB to deliver a balanced message tomorrow

U.S. yields are higher as market sentiment improves; there is a heavy auction schedule for U.S. Treasury coupon paper this week; the market is starting to price in more Fed tightening; EU is working on a plan to issue joint debt to finance energy and defense spending

Risk-off sentiment remains in place as the new week begins; despite the Ukraine crisis, the Fed will begin hiking rates; German y reported firm January retail sales and factory orders

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

The week is ending on a risk-off note as the Ukraine crisis escalates; the jobs report has become a side show; Fed Chair Powell and other Fed officials continue to look through the Ukraine crisis; we still believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; Colombia reports February CPI data Saturday; the Ukraine crisis has entered a new phase as Russian shelling ignited a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; eurozone data came in weaker than expected today; data this week sharply underscore the dilemma facing the ECB when it meets next Thursday; CEE central banks are taking measures to support their plunging currencies

Fed Chair Powell is the latest Fed official to look through the Ukraine crisis; we believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; ISM services PMI will be the data highlight; the Fed released its Beige Book report for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting; BOC hiked rates 25 bp to 0.50%, as expected; MSCI and FTSE Russell are both cutting Russia from their major equity indexes; Moody’s and Fitch both cut their sovereign rating for Russia two full steps; eurozone reported January PPI

U.S. yields remain depressed as risk-off impulses continue; the euro is likely to continue weakening; ADP private sector employment will be the data highlight; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting; we believe the Fed will hike rate 25 bp; BOC is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.50%; February eurozone CPI continues to run even hotter; ECB policy is getting more complicated; China may play a large role in ending the Ukraine crisis; oil prices are trading at new highs due to a variety of factors

Markets are back to risk off mode as Putin ramps up his attack on Ukraine; ISM manufacturing PMI is expected at 58.0 vs. 57.6 in January; more Fed officials are looking through the Ukraine crisis; we still believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; Canada reports Q4 GDP data; Russian forces continue to bear down on Kyiv despite the crippling sanctions response from the West; Russia banned all residents from transferring foreign currency abroad; Germany and Italy report February CPI

Markets are back to risk off mode after ending last week on a decidedly risk-on note; Chicago PMI will be the data highlight; Fed officials continue to look through the Ukraine crisis; we believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; ECB warned that Sberbank's fully-owned subsidiary Sberbank Europe AG is likely to fail; Russia central bank hiked rates to 20% in an effort to support the ruble

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. officials continue to debate potential ejection of Russia from Swift; the Western allies are focused on cutting off Russia’s access to technology; U.S. yields are edging higher; core PCE deflator will be the key focal point for U.S. data; Fed officials are trying to look through the Ukraine crisis; as things stand, we think the Fed goes ahead with a 25 bp hike March 16; data yesterday suggest the U.S. economy is entering the Ukraine crisis in good shape; noted ECB hawk Holzmann is hedging his bets a bit

U.S. yields have collapsed after Russia invaded Ukraine; it will be very important to see how Fed officials view this current situation where there are even more upside inflation risks; Fed tightening expectations have fallen a bit; President Biden will have no choice but to expand sanctions against Russia once again; Mexico reports mid-February CPI; Putin is clearly aiming for regime change; BOE officials are pushing back against aggressive tightening expectations

President Biden announced a new round of sanctions on Russian entities; Canada also announced sanctions; a diplomatic solution appears far off; U.S. yields are creeping higher despite ongoing Russian tensions; Brazil reports mid-February IPCA inflation; European nations also responded with sanctions on Russia

U.S. yields are likely to remain depressed as Russian tensions persist; Fed tightening expectations have fallen a bit; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; Russia President Putin signed a decree recognizing the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine; the West is already moving to punish Russia

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

U.S. bond yields remain depressed from ongoing risk off impulses; Fed officials remain hawkish; Canada reports December retail sales; scheduled talks between the U.S. and Russia have help market sentiment stabilize; ECB hawks remain vocal; U.K. reported firm January retail sales data; Sweden reported January CPI data

FOMC minutes contained nothing surprising; we must stress that a lot has happened since the January 25-26 meeting; January retail sales and IP data came in strong; regional Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be of interest; the situation in Ukraine remains tense as Russia’s claim to withdraw troops is being challenged; ECB hawks continue to get louder; Turkey kept rates steady at 14.0%, as expected

Risk is back on due to positive Russia headlines; FOMC minutes will be released; January PPI data came in hot; January retail sales data will be important; January IP will also be reported; Canada reports January CPI; Russia announced some troops are returning to base; eurozone reported firm December IP; ECB officials continue to tilt more hawkish

St. Louis Fed Governor Bullard moved markets again; Bullard stuck to his well-worn script; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; U.S. inflation data will remain in focus with January PPI; regional Fed manufacturing surveys will start rolling out; Russia seems to be saying give peace a chance; Germany February ZEW survey came in weaker than expected; U.K. reported labor market data

U.S. rates remain depressed on safe haven demand; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; the economic impact of the Canadian trucker protests is likely to be limited; German Chancellor Scholz travels to Ukraine today while en route to Russia; there is no easy policy solution to stagflation; Europe would clearly be impacted the most by Russian hostilities;

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

St. Louis Fed President Bullard quickly changed the narrative yesterday; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; U.S. rates continue to rise; Bullard spoke after January CPI data came in higher than expected; heavy issuance of coupon debt this week has concluded; Mexico hiked rates 50 bp to 6.0%, as expected; ECB Chief Economist Lane defended the view that eurozone inflation will ease without aggressive policy tightening; ECB tightening expectations remain elevated; U.K. monthly data dump showed a modest slowdown was under way as the year ended

U.S. rates market is in a holding pattern ahead of CPI data; heavy issuance of coupon debt concludes; Fed speakers remain hawkish; Boston Fed has chosen Susan Collins to be its next President; BOC signaled rates may have go above neutral; Mexico is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 6.0%; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 3.5%; reports suggest more ECB officials distrust its own inflation forecasts; speaking of forecasts, the EC just released its latest; BOE is trying to manage market expectations; Riksbank delivered a dovish hold; BOJ announced an unlimited bond-buying operation to defend YCC;

U.S rates are taking a breather and that’s weighing on the dollar; a heavy week of coupon issuance continues; a handful of Fed speakers are scheduled; Mexico reports January CPI; Brazil reports January IPCA inflation; eurozone data remain mixed; U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned of rising recession risks; Bank of Japan remains ultra-dovish

U.S. rates continue to march higher; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; there will be heavy issuance of U.S. coupon debt this week; ECB is attempting damage control but the fissures are widening; its hawkish hold has pushed market tightening expectations higher