US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; US inflation data will come into focus; weekly jobless claims were disappointing; Canada reports March jobs data; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; US inflation data will come into focus; weekly jobless claims were disappointing; Canada reports March jobs data; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation

Market expectations for Fed tightening continue to move the other way; FOMC minutes are worth a mention; Fed policymakers continue to stress the new outcome-based strategy; weekly jobless claims should show resumed improvement in the labor market; Mexico reports March CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%

Despite string US data, US yields continue to edge lower; FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports March Ivey PMI and February trade

President Biden’s path to the next round of stimulus just got easier; the US economy continues to roar; while US long yields have stabilized for now, market expectations for Fed tightening continue to adjust

Last week’s jobs data confirm our view that the US economy is gathering momentum; ISM services PMI will be today’s highlight; the US growth outlook remains very strong; Colombia reports March CPI

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Risk appetite is returning ahead of the Easter holidays. Equity markets are broadly higher, with gains of around 0.8% for EM Asian indices, the Nikkei adding 0.7%, and the EuroStoxx 600 up 0.5%. U.S. futures are pointing to a small positive open. Fixed income markets are stable after U.S. President Biden announced his fiscal plan, mostly as expected. The 10-year yield is at 1.72%. The dollar is mixed, weakening against EM currencies but slightly firmer against majors. Oil is bouncing back ahead of the OPEC meeting, with Brent up 1.5% to $63.7 per barrel.

Reports say that Biden new stimulus plan is around $2.25 tln; more details later today; Euro area inflation increased in March, but Laggard talks down any risk; Brazil's president Bolsonaro has reshuffled his cabinet towards a more centrist configuration, a short-term positive; Turkish central bank has a new deputy head; the lira remains under pressure; Indonesia's central bank now owns more bonds than offshore investors

The next fiscal package is shaping up to be quite large and focusing on infrastructure. The EU has hardened its position towards AstraZeneca vaccines. Oil prices were under pressure from favorable news regarding the Suez Canal ship blockage. Geopolitical tensions surrounding China are set to worsen but probably not leading to disruptive action. BOJ minutes reinforced the bank's pro-active yet accommodative mode.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Equities across the APAC region closed the week on the front foot, following the U.S. close higher on positive vaccine distribution news. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp were both +1.5%. Oil resumed its journey higher as the container stuck in the Suez Canal showed no sign of moving (Brent is back to $63). Treasury yields were higher following the poor 7-year note auction yesterday, leaving the 10-year yields at 1.65%. The dollar is mostly weaker, down about 0.5% against commodity currencies (NOK, AUD, MXN) but slightly stronger against the yen. TRY is underperforming, with USD/TRY back above the 8.0 mark.

APAC equities were mixed with the Nikkei closing 1%, Chinese indices little changed, and the India Sensex down 0.7%. EU and UK showed signs that vaccine sharing could be achieved while FED Powel was bullish on unemployment and growth, and still looking through inflation. This helped stabilize equity markets in Europe, which are little changed to slightly lower. U.S. futures are slightly higher. The dollar is mixed but mostly trading in narrow ranges, same for sovereign debt yields. Brent crude declined 1% in Asia Efforts to dislodge the Suez Canal blockage continued with it likely being days before trade can resume.

Risk sentiment remains fragile across markets. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are stable at just over 1.60% after a large downward move yesterday. Global equity markets are broadly weaker, especially in Asia, though U.S. equity futures are slightly higher. The dollar is mixed, weakening against commodity currencies (NOK, ZAR, MXN) but broadly weaker against most major currencies. Oil prices are staging a tentative rebound after the sharp drop over the last few sessions.

The same underlying risks continue to dominate market sentiment: concerns about rising yields, the threat of a third wave of the virus globally, the spat over the AstraZeneca vaccine, and US/Chinese tensions.

Turkish President Erdogan shocked the market by replacing the central bank governor, sending the lira on a tailspin; The virus dramas continue to deepen with some E.U. countries moving towards extending lockdowns and threatening to block vaccine exports to the U.K.; Market pricing for the first Fed hike continues to adjust towards earlier tightening; The increase in global yields has been a global phenomenon, but it has been happening faster and earlier in EM than in developed markets.; The PBoC kept its lending rates unchanged, as expected.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

US Treasury yields are off their recent highs but the situation remains tense; market pricing for the first Fed hike continues to adjust; strong US data should keep pressure on US rates to move higher; Canada reports January retail sales; BOE delivered a dovish hold, as expected; Reports suggest the UK and EU may reach an agreement on financial regulation by the end of this month; Russia opted to kick off the tightening cycle

The FOMC delivered exactly what was expected; Chair Powell stuck with the party line; US yields continue to climb in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC decision; Brazil delivered a stronger tightening in its first move of the cycle

The Bank of Japan starts a two-day meeting Thursday. Given the massive fiscal stimulus in the pipeline, no change in the major monetary policy settings is expected. However, the policy review may result in some cosmetic changes that are likely to have very little market significance.

The FOMC ends a two-day meeting with a likely dovish hold this afternoon; markets are clearly not on board with the Fed’s messaging on rates US rates are at the highs ahead of the decision; February retail sales data are worth discussing; Canada reports February CPI; Brazil is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 2.5%

The Bank of England wraps up its meeting with a decision Thursday. It is widely expected to remain on hold whilst acknowledging an improved economic outlook. Recent comments suggest little official concern yet about rising yields and so we believe gilt yields are likely to continue rising, lending sterling some support.

The FOMC begins a two-day meeting that ends with a decision tomorrow; February retail sales data will be the US data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for March have started to roll out; Brazil’s economy expanded faster than expected in January, which should embolden the central bank to validate the rate hikes priced in

The two-day FOMC meeting starts tomorrow and wraps up Wednesday afternoon. We expect another dovish hold, with Powell underscoring that Fed policy is going nowhere anytime soon. With the US economy surging, we suspect the Fed can do little to keep rates down and so the dollar is likely to continue benefitting from rising yields as a result.

Reports suggest President Biden is planning a major tax hike to help pay for the infrastructure bill; the US curve continues to steepen ahead of the FOMC meeting; Fed manufacturing surveys for March start to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

US Treasury yields are back on the upswing; US PPI data will be the highlight; Canada reports February jobs data

US inflation concerns have eased, at least for now; the 10-year Treasury auction yesterday saw enough demand not to rattle markets but was by no means strong; President Biden got his first major political victory with the stimulus bill passing the House; February budget statement is worth discussing; Brazil reports February IPCA inflation; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%

US inflation data take center stage; heavy US Treasury issuance continues; President Biden’s stimulus plan should be approved today in the House; February budget statement will draw some attention; Canada is expected to keep policy unchanged

The US fiscal stimulus narrative is by no means over; US 10-year yields are off their recent highs, now around 1.52%; volatility in the bond markets comes alongside US Treasury issuance this week; it was a perfect storm for Brazil; Mexico reports February CPI

The US curve continues to steepen to new highs; near-term inflation expecations in the US contiue to rise, but longer-dated measures have been lagging, which can be seen as a positive sign for the Fed; US bond market faces some serious challenges this week; President Biden’s stimulus plan enters the final stretch

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture

February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture

February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture

The US economy is gathering momentum in Q1; Democratic lawmakers are moving ahead with a relief package that does not contain a minimum wage provision; Senator Warren unveiled her proposal for a wealth tax

All eyes are on the US bond market this week; the dollar is the missing piece of the reflation trade as it builds on its Friday turnround; this week offers Fed officials a final opportunity to hone their message to the markets; February ISM manufacturing PMI will be the data highlight The ECB releases details of its bond-buying operations for last week; Germany reports February CPI; firm final eurozone February manufacturing PMI readings were reported BOJ stand ready to maintain YCC ahead of the policy meeting March 18-19; RBA announced a substantial increase of its YCC efforts by increasing the amounts and maturities of its purchases; the drama comes ahead of the RBA meeting tomorrow; Caixin reported softer China manufacturing PM; IHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is overhauling its weightings and composition; Korea reported firm February trade data; crypto currencies have had a wild ride over the last few sessions

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

The Fed’s nonchalance regarding rising yields is noteworthy; The ECB continues to jawbone rising yields; if actual bond purchases can’t stop yields from rising, mere jawboning will have little lasting impact; France and Spain gave us the first snapshots for February CPI; Japan data came in better than expected; BOJ Governor Kuroda stressed steady policy to parliament; Australia yields continued to rise despite RBA intervention; BOK also joined in the bond purchase action to stabilize rising yields; India reports Q4 GDP data

The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up

The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up

The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up

US Treasury yields continue to march higher, increasing concerns about the potential impact on other assets; we suspect the bond market is keeping a close eye in President Biden’s relief package; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

The global increase in longer-dated yields continues; US surveys for February will continue to roll out; Canada reports December retail sales

•January retail sales data may have been a game-changer; really, data this week have been pretty much everything a dollar bull could ask for; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; FOMC minutes are worth discussing

January retail sales data will be the US data highlight; January PPI data will also hold some interest; some cracks may be starting to appear; FOMC minutes will be released this afternoon; Canada reports January CPI

With the impeachment trial over, Congress turns its attention back to the stimulus package; the US curve continues to steepen to new highs; January retail sales data tomorrow will be key for the dollar’s near-term outlook; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will start to roll out

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

Weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing as they suggest labor market stress is ongoing; Treasury completed its sale of $126 bln in total coupon debt this week; the CBO forecasts a wider budget deficit for 2021

January CPI came in lower than expected; Treasury will sell $27 bln of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims data will be watched for signs of improvement

January CPI data will be the US data highlight; Treasury will sell $41 bln of 10-year notes; January budget statement will draw some attention;

Our take on the latest drives for EM Asian markets.

Reports suggest President Biden is likely to push through much of his aid proposal without Republican support; high yield corporate bonds are extending their rally; US Treasury will sell $58 bln of three-year notes

The U.S. curve continues to steepen to new highs; market appetite will be tested this week with heavy UST supply; inflation expectations continue to rise in the U.S.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.

Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key risks driving global economies, including the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and the transition to a new administration in the U.S. We also provide our outlook on developed and emerging markets in Q1 2021.

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists take a deep dive on the key risks driving global economies, including the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and the upcoming US election. We also provide our outlook on developed and emerging markets in Q4 2020.

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists take a deep dive on the key risks driving global economies, including the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and the upcoming US election. We also provide our outlook on developed and emerging markets in Q3 2020.

Forecasts for major and emerging market currencies through Q4 2020.

We created a simple 5-factor model to evaluate the restrictions imposed by different countries, how they compare in terms of severity of lockdown, and where they are heading in the spectrum of reopening. The scale we use measures grade restrictions from 1 (open) to 4 (closed) across the following factors: (a) schools, (b) non-essential businesses, (c) borders, (d) social distancing and (e) severity of penalties/prosecution.

We discuss the key economic developments for Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, and China.

As the coronavirus surges across the world, governments are taking unprecedented measures in order to protect their citizens and their economies and reduce its potential long-term effects on society as a whole.

This edition of our FX quarterly comes out a little later than usual. As March turned into April, there were simply too many uncertainties and unknown developments for us to make any sort of big picture calls with any degree of clarity or certainty. Those two months saw a flurry of policy responses around the globe that we will recount here.

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists recount the flurry of global policy responses around the world to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. We also provide our outlook on developed and emerging markets in Q2 2020.

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists provide their views on major events across developed and emerging markets in Q1 2020.

With the two biggest tail risks – the trade war and Brexit – seemingly addressed, markets are embracing the improved global outlook.

Emerging markets (EM) should enjoy a period of relative calm from external factors until the electoral cycle picks up in the US.

Forecasts for major and emerging market currencies through Q4 2020.

The global backdrop for emerging markets remains challenging.

Forecasts for major and emerging market currencies through Q3 2020.