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  • Yellow downward trending recession arrow on black financial graphs in background
    October 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Higher U.S. rates should continue to support the dollar; Markit preliminary October PMI readings will be reported; weekly jobless claims are worth a mention; Canada reports August retail sales; there was a big shake-up in Brazil’s economic team; Mexico reports mid-October CPI
  • Descending graph with large USD symbol above it
    October 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The Democrats may once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory; Fed’s Beige Book report is worth discussing; regional Fed surveys will continue to roll out with Philly Fed reporting today; weekly jobless claims will be watched closely; U.K. posted solid budget numbers ahead of Chancellor Sunak’s budget next week
  • Blue glowing arrows pointing diagonally up
    October 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The Fed releases its Beige Book report for the November 2-3 FOMC meeting; U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to get pared back; Canada reports September CPI; markets have accelerated tightening expectations for the BOC; U.K. reported softer September CPI data; market pricing of BOE tightening remains elevated;
  • Floating blue currency symbols on black background
    October 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Yesterday’s launch of the Bitcoin futures ETF marked an important milestone for the industry.
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    October 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The bond market rout seems to have run its course, at least for now; we believe this is just a period of calm within a generalized move higher in global rates; yesterday’s TIC data is worth a mention; U.S. fiscal policy remains up in the air; market pricing of BOE tightening has cooled a bit
  • Dark earth glowing with blue lights
    October 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Global bond markets are finally waking up to the risks that inflation isn’t as transitory as most central banks insist; if inflation risks continue to rise, which central banks are best positioned to respond; is the market overreacting; U.S. September IP will be the data highlight; market pricing of BOE tightening has gone parabolic; surprisingly, sterling has yet to react
  • Yen Coins and Bills
    October 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    September inflation readings were worrisome; September retail sales will be very important; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October will start rolling out
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    October 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    September inflation readings remain in focus; Treasury concluded its coupon issuance this week with a successful 30-year auction; FOMC minutes were released; initial claims data are expected to show continued improvement in the labor market; Chile surprised yesterday with a hefty 125 bp hike to 2.75%
  • Various blue and orange business trend graphs and charts on black screen
    October 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. short rates continue to rise; September inflation readings will be closely watched; Treasury concludes a heavy auction schedule; FOMC minutes will be released; Fed officials seem unfazed by the jobs report; Chile is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 2.50%; higher carry across Latin America has not been enough to shift the downdraft on local currencies
  • Descending graph with large USD symbol above it
    October 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to rise; Treasury has a heavy auction schedule this week; Fed speakers are plentiful; the House is scheduled to vote on the short-term extension of the debt ceiling today
  • Stack of U.S. one hundred dollars notes
    October 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The Senate passed a short-term debt ceiling increase until December 3, as expected; higher US rates are helping the dollar; September jobs report will be the highlight; we believe that the bar to tapering has gotten pretty low; Canada also reports September jobs data; BOE warned of a potential correction in asset markets due to risk-taking at “elevated” levels
  • American flag waving with the Capitol Hill in the background
    October 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Reports suggest a deal has been struck to extend the debt ceiling; markets are looking for a solid September jobs report Friday; Mexico reports September CPI; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.5%; reports suggest the ECB is studying a new bond-buying program to help maintain orderly markets when PEPP ends next year
  • Blue and black globe with a glowing web of lines surrounding it
    October 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The hawkish wave continues to sweep more EM central banks, while isolating the remaining dovish few. In this report we elaborate on the recent changes in Poland, Colombia, Brazil, South Africa and South Korea.
  • Glowing blue arrow sloping upwards
    October 06, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ADP private sector jobs data will be the highlight; higher US rates are helping the dollar; reports suggest the Democrats are moving closer to a deal on fiscal stimulus; Colombia September CPI came in a tad above expectations at 4.51% y/y; eurozone data came in very weak
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    October 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    September ISM services PMI will be the highlight; chatter is rising that Powell's chances of remaining Fed Chair have fallen due to the trading scandals; higher U.S. yields are lending some support to the dollar; U.K.-EU tensions continue to rise
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    October 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. 10-year yield is trading around 1.50% as the new week begins; Fed speakers are limited this week; press reports the U.K. will trigger the so-called ‘nuclear’ option and unilaterally suspend parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    October 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. fiscal drama continues; our base case remains that the Democrats will eventually agree on a compromise; ISM manufacturing PMI will be the highlight; August core PCE data could help determine whether U.S. yields will continue rising
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    September 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. government shutdown has been averted, at least until December 3; there is a busy slate of Fed speakers; some key September readings will start to emerge; weekly claims data will be very important; Mexico is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 4.75%; Colombia is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 2.0%
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    September 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. rates story has become the biggest driver for all asset classes; the rise in rates is taking a bit of a pause today; Fed Chair Powell came under fire from Senator Warren yesterday; Yellen warned her department that it will run out of cash October 18
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    September 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year yield continues to move higher; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers become plentiful but changes at the Fed are afoot; fiscal brinksmanship continues; Fed regional manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; Brazil central bank minutes will be released; BOE continues to beat the hawkish drum;
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    September 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year yield traded today at the highest level since June 29 near 1.50%; the current move in U.S. rates and the dollar should perhaps be viewed through the lens of past tapering; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers become plentiful; Fed regional manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; U.K. is taking emergency measures to deal with the energy crisis
  • Blue glowing arrows pointing diagonally up
    September 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish hold; U.S. 10-year yield traded today at the highest level since July 2 near 1.45%; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers become plentiful
  • MOTM-Digital-Assets
    September 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We are approaching a major regulatory inflection point for digital assets in general, and decentralized finance (DeFi) may end up being the ultimate battleground.
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    September 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The Fed delivered a hawkish hold, as we expected; we think if job growth improves to around 500k this month, the Fed will pull the trigger on tapering; Powell said that gradual tapering is likely to conclude around mid-2022; there was a hawkish shift in the Dot Plots; Fed regional manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; Brazil hiked rates by 100 bp to 6.25%, as we expected; Mexico reports mid-September CPI
  • Federal Reserve Cloudy Day
    September 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; new macro forecasts and Dot Plots will be released; U.S. is inching towards another possible government shutdown; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 6.25%
  • Financial stock market trading graphs on screen in blue and red
    September 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow afternoon; Democratic lawmakers submitted a stopgap spending bill that also includes the suspension of the debt ceiling until December 2022; Prime Minister Trudeau will once again head up a minority government in Canada; U.K. energy crisis is worsening
  • Yuan, Dollar, and Euro overlapping banknotes
    September 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar comes into this key week with strong upward momentum; the dollar is also benefitting from risk-off impulses emanating from China; Canada goes to the polls today; the Evergrande saga is leading to heightened concerns about the Chinese financial system and contagion to broader financial markets; we are firmly on the side of expecting strong government intervention
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    September 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    August retail sales data are worth discussing; University of Michigan consumer confidence ties into this question about consumption; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September are starting off strong; ECB denied hawkish comments attributed to Chief Economist Lane; new forecasts from last week’s ECB meeting are not consistent with the FT story
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    September 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. August retail sales data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will also be reported; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September will continue rolling out; minutes from the Chilean central bank’s latest meeting were unambiguously hawkish
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    September 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    August CPI is worth discussing; elevated PPI inflation suggests price pressures remain in play; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September will start rolling out; Canada data highlight will be August CPI; Brazil rates were sharply lower after BCB President Campos Neto signaled he won’t overreact to the latest inflation print
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    September 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    August CPI will be closely watched; from what we can tell, supply bottlenecks will remain in place far longer than the market or the Fed expects
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    September 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    After the post-jobs report sell-off, the dollar has come roaring back; due to the media embargo ahead of the September 21-22 FOMC meeting, there will be no Fed speakers this week; the only U.S. data today is the August budget statement
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    September 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    August PPI data will be the data highlight; Mester speaks today; Canada reports August jobs data; Brazil IPCA inflation surprised on the upside yesterday at 9.68% y/y; Peru hiked rates by 50 bp to 1.0%, as expected
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    September 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Now that the dust is settling after Brazil’s pro-government demonstrations, a clearer picture starts to emerge; it doesn’t look good to our eyes, but we may have reached a local maximum in tensions.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    September 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The Fed Beige Book report painted a fairly upbeat picture for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting; speakers this week suggest the Fed is looking through the August jobs miss; July JOLTS job opening are worth discussing; weekly claims data should show continued improvement in the labor market; BOC delivered a dovish hold, as expected; Peru is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.75%
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    September 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    July JOLTS job opening will be reported; Fed releases its Beige Book report for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting; Fed speakers this week should reveal how the Fed is viewing the August jobs miss; BOC is expected to keep policy steady; yesterday’s large pro-government protests across Brazil were mostly peaceful
  • Blue charts and numbers for COVID-19 cases with 3d renderings of germs
    September 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. returns from holiday facing higher yields and a firmer dollar; markets are still digesting the jobs data and the implications for Fed policy; Brazil’s political risk remains very elevated with protests scheduled for today (Independence Day)
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    September 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are predictably quiet ahead of today’s U.S. payrolls data. The dollar is mixed in narrow moves. The Aussie is outperforming, perhaps in part boosted by a deal with the UK to secure four million doses of Pfizer. European equities and U.S. futures are a touch higher, but the Nikkei rose 2% on the prospect of a new prime minister (see below). Yields are a little changed across G10. In the commodity space, oil is hovering around $70 a barrel as the U.S. Gulf Coast grapples with the impact of hurricane Ida while gold was largely unchanged.
  • Blue line and bar graphs in front of a globe
    September 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    • Ethereum broke violently higher with multiple drivers still looking supportive; Crude prices stabilized this morning after a 2% drop yesterday on news that OPEC plans to boost crude production; Brazil's Q2 growth figures disappointed, but inflation remains the focus for now; Moody's cut Peru's credit rating by one notch; Eurozone PPI surprised on the upside, but the doves are firmly in control
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    September 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    August ADP jobs data will be the highlight; August ISM manufacturing PMI will also be key; Canada Q2 GDP data could have significant repercussions; Chile delivered a vigorous start to the tightening cycle by hiking 75 bp instead of the 50 bp expected
  • Euro bills placed on EU Flag
    August 31, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar remains under pressure as real yields fall; August Chicago PMI will be the data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for August wrapped up yesterday with Dallas reporting; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report; eurozone inflation readings for August came in higher than expected
  • Blue and black globe with a glowing web of lines surrounding it
    August 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Our broad U.S. macro calls will be tested this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for August wrap up with Dallas reporting today; all eyes are on Hurricane Ida after it made landfall last night
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    August 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium; some are looking for Powell to make an explicit tapering announcement this morning; yesterday, three FOMC hawks laid out the case for tapering sooner rather than later; July personal spending, income, and core PCE data will be the highlight; weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing
  • Large upward trending arrow in front of candle-stick graphs and bar graphs, blue and red
    August 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium as it begins today; U.S. stocks continue to make new highs and now it's time for yields to play some catch-up; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be very important; Brazil August IPCA inflation accelerated by more than expected to 9.30% y/y
  • Various blue and orange business trend graphs and charts on black screen
    August 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. 2-year auction yesterday saw very strong demand; Pelosi struck a deal with moderate Democrats that will allow the two infrastructure packages to move forward; Brazil reports mid-August IPCA inflation and July current account data
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    August 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Many markets remain rangebound ahead of Jackson Hole; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will continue to roll out; Mexico reports mid-August CPI
  • Financial stock market trading graphs on screen in blue and red
    August 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium later this week; the September 21-22 FOMC meeting is a more likely venue to formally announce tapering; data this week are expected to show continued strength in the U.S. economy
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    August 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The same themes and price action direction prevailed overnight: delta-virus triggered selloff continues across assets combined with China’s crackdown against the tech sector. The Australian and New Zeeland dollars are underperforming, hit by increasing concerns about infections and declining commodity prices.
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    August 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    FOMC minutes are worth discussing; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be very important
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    August 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    July retail sales data are worth discussing; the U.S. economy should continue to post strong growth in Q3; FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports July C
  • Blue glowing arrows pointing diagonally up
    August 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    July retail sales data will be the highlight; the U.S. manufacturing sector remains strong; add Rosengren to the growing list of Fed officials calling for imminent tapering; CLP is testing its weakest levels for the year on the back of negative political headlines
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    August 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are starting the week with a modest risk-off tone; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will start rolling out.
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    August 06, 2021
    • Investor Services
    July jobs report is the main event; data will have a direct near-term impact on Fed policy the U.S. economy should continue to post strong growth in Q3; Canada also reports July jobs data
  • Coins stacked with United kingdom flag in background
    August 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We got further confirmation that the FOMC is tilting more hawkish; U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement came in as expected; ISM reported strong July services PMI but ADP jobs report suggests some caution is warranted; Brazil COPOM hiked rates 100 bp to 5.25%, as expected; BOE decision is due out shortly
  • Green upward trending line in front of global map and various financial graphs
    August 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The wider implications of yesterday’s hawkish hold from the RBA are worth discussing; within EM, the picture is mixed; ADP private sector jobs data is today’s highlight; ISM reports July services PMI; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 5.25%
  • Floating blue currency symbols on black background
    August 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets should take note of the growing assertiveness of the Fed hawks; July ISM manufacturing PMI came slightly softer than expected; Colombia central bank minutes will be released
  • Walking in a moulin tunnel, just like walking in a crack.
    August 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key factors driving global economies.
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    August 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still trading off Powell’s dovish press conference rather than the hawkish insertion of tapering in the official statement; ISM July manufacturing PMI will be today’s highlight; the U.S. economy should continue to post strong growth in Q3
  • Blue and green financial line graph on black LED screen
    July 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Core PCE data for June will be the highlight; July Chicago PMI will also be reported; Q2 GDP was disappointing but still robust; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%; our cautious stance on Peru was warranted
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    July 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish hold; we believe that tapering and rate hikes will both happen sooner than the market expects; weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched; we also get our first look at Q2 GDP; a compromise was struck on the traditional infrastructure package but the $3.5 trln “human infrastructure” package will face difficulties; Peru finally has an official president, and he continues to sound appeasing of market fears
  • Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
    July 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; Powell and company face a delicate balancing act; U.S. data continue to come in firm; Canada reports June CPI
  • The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
    July 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year real yields fell to a new record low of -1.14%; two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow; market expectations for Fed policy are worth mentioning; Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    July 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year real yields fell to a record low of -1.13% before recovering to -1.10%; the conflicting narratives will make the Fed’s job even trickier as it meets this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    July 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar is ending a good week on a solid note. DXY is trading just below 93 and is up two straight days and six of the past seven. Further gains are expected and it should eventually test the March 31 high near 93.437. The euro remains heavy after the ECB decision (see below) and the clean break below $1.18 sets up a test of the March 31 low near $1.1705. Sterling is having trouble breaking back above $1.38 as economic uncertainty picks up.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    July 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year yield is trading around 1.30%; central bank divergence will be underscored today with the ECB decision; weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched; Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out; Republican Senators blocked debate on the infrastructure package; a battle over the debt ceiling is brewing; Mexico reports mid-July CPI data; Colombia announced a $4 bln tax plan to shore up public finances; the ECB decision should bring hints of further easing;
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    July 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Given the absence of any fresh drivers, markets are continuing with the recent recovery in risk appetite; U.S. fiscal policy remains highly uncertain ahead of a key Senate vote; Peru’s elected leftist president Pedro Castillo had his victory finally confirmed after weeks of dispute; U.K.-EU relations are set to flare up again
  • Blue line and bar graphs in front of a globe
    July 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Risk off impulses have quieted down, at least for now; U.S. stock futures are higher today after falling yesterday in sympathy with the general risk off mood; the U.S. fiscal outlook remains unclear
  • Yellow downward trending recession arrow on black financial graphs in background
    July 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar remains firm as the new week begins in risk off mode. DXY is up for the third straight day and is trading at the highest level since April 5 near 93. Further gains are expected as it moves toward a test of the March 31 high near 93.437. The euro remains heavy ahead of the ECB decision Thursday and the break below $1.18 sets up a test of the March 31 low near $1.1705. Sterling is also trading heavy as the government’s pandemic response comes under renewed scrutiny (see below). Cable is about to test the April 12 low near $1.3670 and further losses are likely. USD/JPY remains under pressure as risk off sentiment continues to take hold, though near-term support is seen around the July 8 low just above 109.50.
  • Green upward trending line in front of global map and various financial graphs
    July 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    • Powell stuck to the same tone on the second day of his testimony, while Bullard said it was time to end emergency measures. More hawkish comments out of the BoE yesterday, pressured short-end rates higher. Cases in the UK rose to the highest in six months. The BoJ policy meeting was uneventful, with no policy change and some headlines around the “green lending plan”; Higher CPI numbers validate the RBNZ’s hawkish stance
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    July 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still on board with Fed Powell’s reassuring message on inflation. The BoK kept rates unchanged while also tapering its bond purchases; Chile’s central bank joined Brazil and Mexico in their tightening cycle, while Turkey and Korea left rates unchanged, as expected. Crude continues its downward slide after U.S. supply data and signs that a supply deal on OPEC+ might be at hand
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    July 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The growing hawkishness of many central banks globally is fully on display this month; U.S. inflation readings will remain in focus; U.S. Treasury completed its note and bond issuance for the week; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming FOMC meeting; Chair Powell testifies before the House today and the Senate tomorrow; BOC is likely to taper again; Chile is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.75%
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    July 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. inflation readings will come into focus; we believe that the continued low rate environment will give the Fed more confidence to taper; U.S. Treasury issuance continues
  • Candle stick graphs and line graphs in front of purple and blue world map on a black background
    July 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The central bank divergence story is likely to come back into focus this week; U.S. Treasury note and bond issuance picks up again; the U.S. growth outlook for Q2 remains strong; Peru left rates unchanged Friday but the changes in forward guidance suggest officials are getting ready to hike soon; ECB asset purchases for the week ending July 9 will be reported; ECB President Lagarde is flagging further easing of some sort; U.K. will fully reopen July 19 even as Prime Minister Johnson urges caution
  • Stacked gray stones with pink sky in background
    July 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We are approaching the weekend with markets searching for direction; jobless claims yesterday were mixed; consumer credit continues to grow; Canada reports June jobs data; Mexico June headline inflation came in at 5.88% y/y, slightly higher than expected and definitely enough to justify Banxico’s hawkish turn; Brazil inflation for June came in slightly below forecast at 8.35% y/y; Brazil intervened in FX markets yesterday for the first time since March to stem the sharp reversal of the real
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    July 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The strong flattening trend in the U.S. yield curve that stated in mid-May has accelerated; FOMC minutes were released; some minor data will be reported; Mexico reports June CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; ECB will announce the results of its strategy review; it also releases its account of the June 10 meeting
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    July 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The divergence theme remains intact; FOMC minutes will be released; the bond market continues to confound; May JOLTS job openings will be reported; Canada reports June Ivey PMI; concerns about vaccine efficacy in Israel are giving global investors some trepidation
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    July 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We believe that the central bank divergence story will be one of the major drivers for FX in H2; US jobs data will be the highlight; other important snapshots for June point to underlying strength in the economy; Canada reports May building permits, trade, and June Markit manufacturing PMI; Fitch downgraded Colombia’s long-term foreign currency rating from investment grade (IG) to high yield (HY)
  • Rolled up bank-notes from various countries
    July 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    June ISM manufacturing PMI will be the highlight; weekly jobless claims data are expected to show continued improvement in the labor market; jobs data tomorrow are coming into focus; Fed speakers are likely to continue pushing the more hawkish narrative
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    June 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ADP reports June private sector jobs; Chicago PMI will also be reported; U.S. equities made another all-time high yesterday; Fed officials continue to tilt hawkish; NYT article today plays up a split on the FOMC; Canada reports April GDP
  • Blue and black globe with a glowing web of lines surrounding it
    June 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the jobs report Friday; some reports suggest ending enhanced unemployment benefits have not yet led to a boost in employment; Fed speakers are likely to continue pushing the more hawkish narrative this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will wrap up today; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%; Boris Johnson’s government is under the microscope during a key week
  • Glowing lines and financial graphs floating around a globe like rings
    June 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the jobs report Friday; some reports suggest ending enhanced unemployment benefits have not yet led to a boost in employment; Fed speakers are likely to continue pushing the more hawkish narrative this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will wrap up today; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%; Boris Johnson’s government is under the microscope during a key week
  • Candle stick graphs and line graphs in front of purple and blue world map on a black background
    June 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields and the dollar remain subdued; we are agreement with Bullard and Kaplan's comments yesterday and look for tapering by end-2021; core PCE for May will be reported; President Biden announced a tentative infrastructure deal with a group of ten centrist Senators from both parties; Mexico took the plunge into the hawkish camp with a surprise 25 bp rate hike yesterday to 4.25%; Brazil quarterly inflation report reinforced the trajectory of hikes from the statement
  • Bank of England with UK flag, The historical building in London, UK
    June 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Since the Fed’s hawkish hold last week, inflation expectations have fallen dramatically; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; we get another revision to Q1 GDP; Mexico is expected to keep rates steady at 4.0%; Chile central bank minutes were on the hawkish side, confirming a hike is coming in the next few meetings
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    June 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Fed Chair Powell delivered no surprises in his Congressional testimony yesterday; we believe tapering is closer than markets appreciate; Markit preliminary June PMI readings will be the highlight; minutes from Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) were decidedly hawkish
  • Upward trending line on green LED screen
    June 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields have rebounded sharply; Fed speakers will be plentiful; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; Brazil central bank minutes will be released; the remarkable divergence within Latin America continues as the Brazilian real bucks the regional trend
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    June 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten; cross market measures of implied volatility have reawakened from the recent doldrums; with the media embargo over, Fed speakers will be plentiful this week; the U.S. growth outlook for Q2 remains strong
  • Blue glowing arrows pointing diagonally up
    June 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Meetings this week underscore our long-standing call for widening central bank divergences; at the heart of the matter is that those economies that were in strong shape before the pandemic are seeing strong recoveries; markets seem to be especially fixated on the huge move in the 5- to 30-year part of the U.S. Treasury curve; weekly jobless claims data were disappointing
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    June 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The FOMC delivered a hawkish hold, as we expected; Chair Powell gave an upbeat outlook at the press conference; June Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data should show continued healing of the labor market; Brazil delivered a 75 bp hike to 4.25% and signaled another one August 4, both as expected but added a hawkish tilt
  • The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
    June 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; May PPI surprised to the upside; May retail sales data are worth discussing; Canada reports May CPI; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 4.25%
  • Various blue and orange business trend graphs and charts on black screen
    June 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates have rebounded a bit ahead of today’s key data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision; May PPI and retail sales will be reported; June Fed manufacturing surveys will start to roll out
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    June 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates remain low as we enter a crucial week for the bond market; first and foremost is the risk of a hawkish hold from the Fed; ahead of the FOMC decision Wednesday, the market will get some key U.S. data tomorrow
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    June 11, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The G-7 summit begins today in Cornwall; May CPI data surprised the upside; yet U.S. rates continue to fall; next week’s FOMC meeting is coming into focus; weekly jobless claims data show continued healing of the labor market; Peru left rates on hold at 0.25% last night, as expected
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    June 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Many emerging market (EM) economies are also facing near-term inflation shocks, but there has been a wide divergence between how central banks are facing it. Some have reacted by frontloading hikes, while others have stuck to a strategy of talking down inflation risks.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    June 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    May CPI data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; BOC kept policy steady, as expected; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; Brazil’s May IPCA inflation came in decidedly strong; the ECB is expected to extend its accelerated asset purchases into Q3
  • Yellow downward trending recession arrow on black financial graphs in background
    June 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. JOLTS job openings came in very strong in April; The U.S. growth outlook for Q2 also remains strong; BOC is expected to keep policy steady; last night, Chile delivered a hawkish hold and is yet another sign that the global liquidity story is at an inflection point; Brazil and Mexico report May inflation
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    June 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. fiscal policy remains a big unknown; today is a light day in North America; Chile is expected to keep rates steady at 0.50%; Peru’s electoral board has not yet announced an official winner for the presidential race; BRL continues to test the R$5.00 level even as fiscal headlines weigh on fixed income markets
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    June 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We do not believe that tapering discussions have been derailed by the jobs report; the other big unknown right now is fiscal policy; the ruling party in Mexico (Morena) suffered a notable defeat in the midterm elections and lost its super-majority in the lower house; initial tallies from Peru’s crucial presidential runoff elections show surprising gains for Keiko Fujimori
  • Dark earth glowing with blue lights
    June 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    May jobs data will be the highlight; ISM services PMI surprised to the upside; weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing; Chair Powell is the only Fed speaker today; Canada also reports May jobs data; Chilean assets were hit yesterday by a potential bill allowing investors to fully withdraw their pension savings
  • Financial stock market trading graphs on screen in blue and red
    June 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ADP reports private sector jobs data; ISM services PMI will be very important; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; the Fed was upbeat in its Beige Book report for the upcoming June 15-16 FOMC meeting
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    June 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming June 15-16 FOMC meeting; add St. Louis Fed President Bullard to the list of Fed officials that are tilting more hawkish; yesterday’s survey data points to ongoing strength in U.S. economy; USD/CAD traded at a new low for this move just above 1.20 yesterday before recovering; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report
  • Black Oil Barrels Close Together
    June 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ISM PMI readings will be watched to see if they mirror last week’s blockbuster survey readings; Fed manufacturing surveys for May will wind up with Dallas today; Canada reports Q1 GDP and Markit May PMI
  • Stack of U.S. one hundred dollars notes
    May 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. core PCE has taken on greater importance as the inflation debate rages; May Chicago PMI will be reported and there are upside risks to the consensus 68.0; weekly jobless claims data are worth a mention
  • Yuan, Dollar, and Euro overlapping banknotes
    May 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; we get the first revision to Q1 GDP; Banco de Mexico minutes will be released
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    May 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The drop in U.S. yields continues; more Fed officials are talking about talking about tapering; Hungary left rates on hold at 0.60% yesterday but confirmed its hawkish stance; RBNZ unexpectedly delivered a hawkish hold;
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    May 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets have to start pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed going forward; stronger U.S. data ahead should feed into further tapering talk at the June 15-16 FOMC meeting; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; the prospect of left turn in Brazil’s politics is rising
  • Red and yellow decreasing line graphs in front of blue sky scrapers
    May 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets have to start pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed going forward; stronger U.S. data ahead should feed into further tapering talk at the June 15-16 FOMC meeting; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; the prospect of left turn in Brazil’s politics is rising
  • The flags of the European Union at the European Commission's headquarters.
    May 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Higher U.S. real rates are not doing the dollar any favors; preliminary May Markit PMI readings will be the highlight; research by the SF Fed suggests anecdotes of enhanced unemployment benefits keeping workers home are overstated; Canada reports March retail sales; BOC Governor Macklem delivered a sobering message regarding the housing market
  • The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
    May 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    FOMC minutes show that the Fed is now talking about talking about tapering; Kaplan is the only Fed speaker today; the Dot Plots for the June 15-16 FOMC meeting will take on more significance; Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be closely watched
  • Black Oil Barrels Close Together
    May 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Key FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports April CPI; Banco de Mexico official signaled low likelihood of any more rate cuts
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    May 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    With Fed officials remaining dovish as data paint a mixed picture for the U.S., markets are taking the dollar lower; Kaplan speaks today; Fed manufacturing surveys for May have started to roll out; Chilean assets have come under heavy pressure with the strong performance of far-left parties in the Constitutional Assembly elections
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    May 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar remains under pressure as U.S. rates continue to fall.
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    May 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar is giving up some of its recent gains as U.S. rates fall. DXY is down after two straight up days and is trading soft after being unable to break above 91.
  • Industrial barrels stacks in waste yard
    May 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US inflation data will remain in focus; heavy US Treasury issuance this week concludes with a $27 bln sale of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims data may take on more importance after the big miss for April; Mexico, Chile, and Peru are all expected to keep rates steady
  • Silhouettes of Oil Pumps in Oil Field at Sunset
    May 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. inflation data come into focus; we think that risks to US yields lie to the upside; it’s worth taking a look at how U.S. core and headline inflation have behaved historically to supply shocks; the U.S. labor market remains in flux; more states are rejecting the enhanced unemployment benefits; U.S. Treasury issuance continues with a $41 bln sale of 10-year notes
  • Blue line and bar graphs in front of a globe
    May 11, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The debate about unemployment benefits is heating up after last week’s big miss on jobs; heavy US Treasury issuance this week starts off with a $58 bln sale of 3-year notes today; Fed speakers will remain plentiful; Brazil reports April IPCA inflation
  • Stacked gray stones with pink sky in background
    May 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The markets are still digesting the much weaker than expected jobs report from Friday; the debate between markets and the Fed has tilted more towards the latter; today is a quiet day in the U.S. before the upcoming flood of UST issuance and U.S. data
  • Upward trending line on green LED screen
    May 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    April jobs data will be the highlight; the U.S. growth outlook remains stronger than ever; the Fed’s financial stability report warned that rising risk appetite is stretching valuations and creating weakness in the US financial system; Canada also reports April jobs data; Mexico reports April CPI
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    May 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Comments by Treasury Secretary Yellen are worth discussing; ADP private sector jobs will be today’s highlight; ISM services PMI will also be reported; the U.S. growth outlook remains stronger than ever; Brazil is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 3.5%; Colombia central bank releases its quarterly inflation report
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    May 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The outlook for major Latin American markets continues to deteriorate, despite the favourable commodity cycle and relatively higher rates to support local currencies. Local politics and unfavourable pandemic outcomes are still our main reasons for concern, but external factors – strong dollar and higher U.S. yield – also create additional headwinds.
  • Stack of U.S. one hundred dollars notes
    May 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. data yesterday were mixed but still point to underlying strength in the economy; despite the PMI reading, the U.S. outlook remains stronger than ever; Fed speakers remain plentiful; COP is under heavy downward pressure on the back of negative political headlines
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    May 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. economy continues to sizzle; therein lies the crux of our strong dollar outlook; April ISM manufacturing PMI is the data highlight
  • Floating blue currency symbols on black background
    April 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We got our first look at Q1 GDP yesterday; therein lies the crux of our strong dollar outlook; keep an eye on two spreads that will support our bearishness on the euro; today’s data highlight is April Chicago PMI; Colombia is expected to keep rate steady at 1.75%
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    April 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are climbing as markets continue to digest the FOMC decision; the Fed delivered a dovish hold, as expected; markets are starting to look for signs of tapering and that was the first question for Powell; we get our first look at Q1 GDP; weekly jobless claims will be reported
  • Federal Reserve Cloudy Day
    April 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; we will be putting out a lengthy piece this week about the Fed’s likely roadmap for tapering; U.S. yields are rising ahead of the decision
  • Blue and green financial line graph on black LED screen
    April 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-April IPCA inflation.
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    April 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The latest Bloomberg survey shows growing expectations of Fed tapering in Q4; yields are picking a bit ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow and ends with a decision Wednesday afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    April 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Senate Republicans offered a $568 bln compromise spending package; President Biden will reportedly propose a hike in the capital gains tax; weekly jobless claims data point to a solid NFP reading; preliminary US Markit April PMI readings will be reported
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    April 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US bond yields remain depressed; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims are for the BLS survey week; BOC delivered a hawkish hold; other central banks may also be willing to start tapering QE before year-end; Mexico reports mid-April CPI; ECB is expected to keep all policy settings unchanged
  • Red and yellow decreasing line graphs in front of blue sky scrapers
    April 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US bond yields remain depressed ahead of a 20-year bond auction; BOC meeting ends with a decision this morning; ahead of the decision, Canada reports March CPI; BRL saw some relief yesterday after congress (finally) agreed on the budget
  • Yuan, Dollar, and Euro overlapping banknotes
    April 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Bitcoin saw a roughly 10% flash crash over the weekend; US Treasury yields continue to tumble; the Trudeau government releases its 2021 budget
  • Climber using pick axe to club up deep ice cavern
    April 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Bitcoin saw a roughly 10% flash crash over the weekend; US Treasury yields continue to tumble; the Trudeau government releases its 2021 budget