With no Fed speakers nor major U.S. data, markets have shifted to consolidation mode after this past week’s big moves; we continue to focus on the expected terminal Fed Funds rate; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January will continue rolling out; weekly jobless claims will be of interest; Brazil presidential candidate Lula said he would like former Sao Paulo Governor Alckmin as his running mate; ECB President Lagarde continues to push back against market tightening expectations

U.S. rates market continues to adjust to the hawkish Fed; Fed tightening expectations continue to rise; the weak January Empire Survey is worth discussing; Canada reports December CPI; U.K. reported higher than expected December CPI data; BOE tightening expectations continue to rise; South Africa reported higher than expected December CPI data; TRY remains under pressure despite news of another swap deal

As the U.S. returns from holiday, markets are grappling with sharply higher yields and a stronger dollar; Fed tightening expectations continue to rise; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January will start rolling out; U.K. reported firm labor market data; BOE tightening expectations remain elevated; two-day BOJ meeting ended with a dovish hold

December retail sales data will be the data highlight; as things stand, the U.S. economy remains firm; monthly U.K. data dump came in firmer than expected; market sees full speed ahead for the BOE; reports suggest there is a growing sense of urgency on both sides regarding Brexit talks; RUB remains under pressure after talks with NATO hit a dead end

The Fed continues to flag potential March liftoff; Fed Beige Book report is worth discussing; Senate Banking Committee holds its hearing today on Lael Brainard’s nomination for Vice Chair; U.S. PPI data will be in focus today; the U.K. inflation outlook continues to worsen

The Fed is sending a clear hawkish signal to the markets; Powell, Mester and George made similarly hawkish comments; Fed Beige Book report will be closely watched; U.S. CPI data will be the main focus; eurozone reported firm November IP; U.K. Prime Minister Johnson continues to shed support; for now, sterling is shrugging off the political uncertainty

More Fed hawks are lining up; U.S. yields are mixed today; Senate Banking Committee holds its hearing today on Fed Chair Powell’s nomination for a second term; Vice Chair Clarida will step down two weeks early effective January 14; ECB has a new hawk, same as the old hawk

The Fed continues to tilt more hawkish; U.S. rates market continues to adjust to the new Fed messaging; the week starts off quietly ahead of key inflation and retail sales data later this week; Brexit tensions are back

Jobs data is the main event; it’s clear that the jobs data have taken on less importance to the Fed; U.S. rates market continues to adjust to the new Fed messaging; Canada reports December jobs data too; Argentina started the tightening cycle with a 200 bp hike to 40%; Peru delivered the expected 50 bp hike to 3.0%

Everything the market thought it knew about Fed policy this year was upended by the FOMC minutes; markets reacted as one would expect; ahead of the jobs data, we will get the last major clue; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 3.0%; Germany reported firm November factory orders

Yields at the long end of the U.S. continue to rise; the highlight will be ADP private sector jobs data; FOMC minutes will be important; eurozone reported final services and composite PMI readings; December eurozone inflation readings continue to roll out

Higher rates continue to underpin the dollar; December ISM manufacturing will be the data highlight; potential candidates for the Fed Board of Governors are starting to emerge; Ontario is locking down as virus numbers spike from omicron; BOC tightening expectations need to adjust lower as a result

Looking back to 2021, the dollar had a stellar year; we believe the strong dollar trend remains intact for 2022; with a busy U.S. data week ahead, there are only minor data today; eurozone final December manufacturing PMI readings were reported; U.K. markets are closed but Prime Minister Johnson will return tomorrow to some bad news

There are no central bank meetings, Fed speakers, or major data releases scheduled for the rest of the year; markets will be thin next week and we certainly can’t rule out some wild year-end swings; November core PCE came in higher than expected; weekly jobless claims are worth a mention; Brexit will come roaring back into the headlines in early January; TRY trading remains volatile

November core PCE is the key data point this week; weekly jobless claims will be of interest; Canada reports October GDP; BOC tightening expectations remain elevated; Mexico reported lower than expected mid-December CPI

U.S. rates are starting to normalize; market tightening expectations for the Fed still have room to adjust; 2-year yield differentials are moving back in the dollar’s favor; we get another revision to Q3 GDP; U.K. reported Q3 current account and final GDP data; 2022 brings greater headwinds to the U.K. economy; all is not well in Turkey; Czech National Bank is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 3.50%

Senator Manchin outlined possible changes to the Build Back Better package that might win his support; Democrats need to decide on the next steps; there are no Fed speakers scheduled for the rest of the year; Canada report October retail sales; BOC tightening expectations remain heightened; Germany reported weak January GfK consumer confidence; U.K. CBI reported a weak distributive trades survey for December

Markets are starting of the week in risk-off mode; the removal of accommodation by many of the major central banks will hit EM hard; there are no Fed speakers scheduled for this week; the market still does not believe the Fed in terms of the magnitude of the tightening cycle; Chilean assets are likely to come under pressure as leftist Boris won the presidential election

Markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish turn; U.S. data remain firm; President Biden’s Build Back Better package remains elusive; Colombia is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 3.0%; Mexico delivered a hawkish surprise yesterday; ECB delivered a hawkish hold;

Fed delivered a hawkish decision; Chair Powell was suitably hawkish in his press conference; November retail sales data were disappointing; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for December continue rolling out; Mexico is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 5.25%; ECB decision is due out shortly; eurozone reported weak preliminary December PMI readings; BOE started the tightening cycle with a 15 bp hike to 0.25%;

The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; if there were any doubts about a faster taper, yesterday’s November PPI readings have put those to rest; updated Dot Plots and macro forecasts are likely to support a more hawkish stance; data highlight is November retail sales; another debt ceiling crisis has been averted; Canada reports November CPI; U.K. reported higher than expected November CPI; reports suggest the upcoming ECB forecasts will show inflation remaining below the 2% target in both 2023 and 2024;

The two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends tomorrow with a decision; we continue to take issue with market pricing for a terminal Fed Funds rate of 1.5%; November PPI will be of interest; BOC added jobs to its mandate whilst renewing its 2% inflation target; Brazil central bank minutes will be released; Chile is expected to hike rates 125 bp to 4.0%; U.K. reported firm labor market data

To say this is an eventful week would be an understatement; we continue to take issue with market pricing for a terminal Fed Funds rate of 1.5%; today is a quiet day before the storm of central bank meetings hits; U.K. raised its Covid alert level from 3 to 4 as Prime Minister Johnson warned of a ‘tidal wave’ of omicron cases

November CPI will be the data highlight; we see upside risks to CPI and could impact Fed policy expectations further; as it is, short-term rates continue to support the greenback; weekly jobless claims are worth discussing; Peru delivered the expected 50 bp hike yesterday but the communication sounded dovish; eurozone data came in on the soft side; the ECB is clearly struggling to come up with a consensus for next week’s policy meeting; U.K. October data dump came in soft

The currency markets remain in a holding pattern; U.S. Treasury concludes its coupon issuance with a $22 bln sale of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims are worth watching; BOC kept policy on hold, as expected; Mexico reports November CPI; Brazil delivered the expected 150 bp hike yesterday; U.K. announced tighter restrictions in the hopes of preventing another spike in the virus numbers

Higher U.S. rates should continue to support the dollar; Treasury continues its coupon issuance with a $36 bln sale of 10-year notes; Canada is expected to keep policy on hold; Brazil is expected to hike rates 150 bp to 9.25%; headline inflation for Chile came in at 6.7% y/y in November; reports suggest imminent announcement of new Covid restrictions in the U.K.; Johnson and his party will continue to suffer a freefall in support

U.S. rates should continue to support the dollar; Treasury begins its slug of coupon issuance for this week with a $54 bln sale of 3-year notes today; Canada reports October trade and November Ivey PMI

Fed tightening expectations remain elevated despite the mixed jobs report; markets for now believe that the Fed has things under control; the German economy continues to soften; South African rand is outperforming as more positive evidence emerges that the omicron variant is less severe than first thought

More Fed officials are tilting hawkish; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; data highlight will be November jobs data; weekly jobless claims are worth discussing; Canada also reports November jobs data; Colombia reports November CPI Saturday; eurozone data came in soft; ECB President Lagarde again downplayed a 2022 hike

The clues are pointing to a strong jobs report tomorrow; Fed released its Beige Book report; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; Fed officials remain hawkish; Brexit tensions may be easing a bit; eurozone reported surging October PPI; some ECB officials are in favor of delaying a decision on extending QE Turkey has a new Finance Minister

Fed Chair Powell dropped a bombshell on the markets; Fed tightening expectations quickly adjusted and this is unequivocally dollar positive; Fed Beige Book report has been rendered moot; ADP private sector jobs estimate and ISM manufacturing PMI will be the data highlights; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report; final eurozone November manufacturing PMI readings came in softer; the pace of weekly ECB net asset purchases has been creeping higher

Market sentiment has reversed lower after a brief recovery yesterday; price action in the FX market is worth discussing; the omicron variant has weighed a bit on Fed tightening expectations and that’s hurting the dollar; Fed Chair Powell said yesterday that the omicron variant poses risks on both sides of the Fed’s mandate; November Chicago PMI will be the data highlight; Canada reports Q3 GDP data; eurozone November CPI data surprised to the upside; this will get the ECB hawks riled up

Market sentiment is recovering today after ending last week on a sour note; the omicron variant has done little to impact Fed tightening expectations so far; Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; some key eurozone November CPI data have started to emerge; ECB so far remains unfazed by omicron

The dollar is slightly weaker on the day, but moves have been modest ahead of the U.S. holiday. The biggest headline came from Germany, with Olaf Scholz is set to become the next German Chancellor. Also, the RBNZ continued its fight against inflation overnight and raised interest rates by 25bps while signaling there is more to come.

APAC equities were again mixed with Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng -1.1%, and Shanghai Comp +0.2%. Equity markets are broadly lower in Europe and U.S. future down 0.3%. In FX, USDJPY rose to a four-year high of 115.15. EUR received a minor bid from stronger PMI figures and hawkish comments by ECB’s Isabel Schnabel on inflation risks. Oil prices are down again, with Brent at $78.50 per barrel amid a battle over who will dominate the supply narrative. Several countries, including the U.S., India, and China, said they would start tapping their strategic reserves to alleviate the recent price pressures. OPEC+ has counterattacked by stating they could respond by reconsidering increasing production quotas, as originally planned. The backwardation of the crude curve is also being quickly removed as prices for shorter contracts fall faster than longer-dated ones.

The firming of expectations for the Fed to deliver the first hike of the cycle in mind-2020 remains as the key driver for currency markets. In Europe, Austria’s national lockdown came into effect on the weekend while the debate over compulsory vaccinations raged across the border in Germany.

More and more Fed officials are talking about 2022 liftoff; we believe the dollar’s next leg higher will be driven by market repricing of tightening in the rest of the world; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November have so far come in firm; Canada reports September retail sales; the virus news stream from Europe continues to deteriorate;

Despite heightened tightening expectations across DM, the Fed outlook has remained remarkably stable; weekly jobless claims will be of interest; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November will continue rolling out; markets are finally heeding the ECB’s dovish message

October U.S data remain strong; the U.S. economy is rebounding nicely in Q4; announcement of the next Fed Chair is not as imminent as previously advertised; Canada reports October CPI

October retail sales will be the data highlight; reports suggest President Biden has made his choice for Fed Chair; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November have started rolling out; BOC Governor Macklem is sounding more hawkish; U.K. reported solid labor market data

As per the November 2-3 FOMC meeting, tapering begins this week; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November will start rolling out; geopolitical tensions remain high in Europe as a result of the Belarus border crisis

U.S. yields are moving higher as the bond market reopens after holiday; President Biden is reportedly debating release of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; data today are limited; Mexico delivered a 25 bp hike to 5.0%, as most expected; Peru hiked rates by 50 bp to 2.0%, as expected; geopolitical tensions are back on the radar

U.S. October CPI data yesterday was a wake-up call for global markets; Fed lift-off expectations have reset higher and that's giving the dollar a big boost; Treasury sold $25 bln of 30-year bonds yesterday, completing the $120 bln quarterly refunding; ECB’s Holzmann said QE could end next fall; U.K. reported disappointing data

Fed officials continue to tilt hawkish; U.S, rates are reversing yesterday’s Brainard-related fall; U.S. inflation data will remain in the spotlight; Treasury will sell $25 bln of 30-year bonds; Brazil reports October IPCA inflation; Mexico October CPI came in above expectations; German officials are getting increasingly concerned about inflation

Fed officials are reinforcing last week’s decision to taper; U.S. inflation data will take center stage; U.S. 30-year TIPS yield is at an all-time low; Treasury will sell $39 bln of 10-year notes; Mexico reports October CPI; Germany reported weak September trade data and November ZEW survey;

The U.S. Treasury will sell $56 bln of 3-year notes today; U.S. rates have fallen since the FOMC decision; Chile reported higher than expected October CPI; the ECB debate about inflation continues to rage; markets are still digesting last week’s shock decision from the Bank of England

Rates remain under downward pressure around the world as a result of the Bank of England’s dovish surprise; October jobs data will be the highlight; Canada also reports October jobs data; Peru stepped away from the brink of another political drama yesterday as the cabinet won a confidence vote; eurozone reported weak data; BOE decision is worth discussing;

The FOMC announced tapering will begin this month, as widely expected; despite the pushback, the market is still pricing in 50% odds for liftoff in Q2; Treasury announced its first reduction in its quarterly refunding in more than five years; U.S. data continue to surprise to the upside; minutes from the last Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) meeting read on the hawkish side; BOE is expected to keep rates steady at 0.10%

The FOMC is expected to announced tapering when its two-day meeting ends this afternoon; ADP private sector jobs will be the data highlight; ISM services PMI for October will also be reported; ECB President Lagarde is pushing back harder against market tightening expectations

The two-day FOMC meeting begins today and is expected to end tomorrow with a tapering announcement; the market has taken that process a step further and is pricing in around 50% odds for liftoff in Q2; U.S. data remain strong; fiscal stimulus hit another roadblock; eurozone reported softer final October manufacturing PMI readings

As expected, a fiscal deal was announced by President Biden yesterday; September core PCE is the data highlight; October Chicago PMI will also be reported; we got our first look at Q3 GDP yesterday and it wasn’t pretty; weekly jobless claims are worth mentioning; Colombia is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 2.25%; ECB delivered a less dovish than expected hold

As expected, a fiscal deal was announced by President Biden yesterday; September core PCE is the data highlight; October Chicago PMI will also be reported; we got our first look at Q3 GDP yesterday and it wasn’t pretty; weekly jobless claims are worth mentioning; Colombia is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 2.25%; ECB delivered a less dovish than expected hold

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten; reports suggest a fiscal deal will be announced by President Biden today; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October will wrap up; we get our first look at Q3 GDP; weekly jobless claims will be watched closely; BOC delivered a hawkish hold; Brazil hiked rates 150 bp to 7.75%, as expected; ECB decision will be out shortly and a dovish hold is expected; the euro tends to weaken on recent ECB decision days

The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten; U.S. data remain strong; BOC is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; Brazil COPOM meets and median consensus sees a 150 bp hike to 7.75%; eurozone data were mixed today

Democrats may be nearing a compromise that could unlock trillions in fiscal stimulus; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-October IPCA inflation; U.K. Chancellor Sunak will reportedly unfreeze public sector salaries next April; BOE tightening expectations are getting trimmed;

U.S. yields are creeping higher; the Fed is ready to taper; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; Germany reported weak October IFO business climate survey

Higher U.S. rates should continue to support the dollar; Markit preliminary October PMI readings will be reported; weekly jobless claims are worth a mention; Canada reports August retail sales; there was a big shake-up in Brazil’s economic team; Mexico reports mid-October CPI

The Democrats may once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory; Fed’s Beige Book report is worth discussing; regional Fed surveys will continue to roll out with Philly Fed reporting today; weekly jobless claims will be watched closely; U.K. posted solid budget numbers ahead of Chancellor Sunak’s budget next week

The Fed releases its Beige Book report for the November 2-3 FOMC meeting; U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to get pared back; Canada reports September CPI; markets have accelerated tightening expectations for the BOC; U.K. reported softer September CPI data; market pricing of BOE tightening remains elevated;

Yesterday’s launch of the Bitcoin futures ETF marked an important milestone for the industry.

The bond market rout seems to have run its course, at least for now; we believe this is just a period of calm within a generalized move higher in global rates; yesterday’s TIC data is worth a mention; U.S. fiscal policy remains up in the air; market pricing of BOE tightening has cooled a bit

Global bond markets are finally waking up to the risks that inflation isn’t as transitory as most central banks insist; if inflation risks continue to rise, which central banks are best positioned to respond; is the market overreacting; U.S. September IP will be the data highlight; market pricing of BOE tightening has gone parabolic; surprisingly, sterling has yet to react

September inflation readings were worrisome; September retail sales will be very important; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for October will start rolling out

September inflation readings remain in focus; Treasury concluded its coupon issuance this week with a successful 30-year auction; FOMC minutes were released; initial claims data are expected to show continued improvement in the labor market; Chile surprised yesterday with a hefty 125 bp hike to 2.75%

U.S. short rates continue to rise; September inflation readings will be closely watched; Treasury concludes a heavy auction schedule; FOMC minutes will be released; Fed officials seem unfazed by the jobs report; Chile is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 2.50%; higher carry across Latin America has not been enough to shift the downdraft on local currencies

U.S. rates continue to rise; Treasury has a heavy auction schedule this week; Fed speakers are plentiful; the House is scheduled to vote on the short-term extension of the debt ceiling today

The Senate passed a short-term debt ceiling increase until December 3, as expected; higher US rates are helping the dollar; September jobs report will be the highlight; we believe that the bar to tapering has gotten pretty low; Canada also reports September jobs data; BOE warned of a potential correction in asset markets due to risk-taking at “elevated” levels

Reports suggest a deal has been struck to extend the debt ceiling; markets are looking for a solid September jobs report Friday; Mexico reports September CPI; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.5%; reports suggest the ECB is studying a new bond-buying program to help maintain orderly markets when PEPP ends next year

The hawkish wave continues to sweep more EM central banks, while isolating the remaining dovish few. In this report we elaborate on the recent changes in Poland, Colombia, Brazil, South Africa and South Korea.

ADP private sector jobs data will be the highlight; higher US rates are helping the dollar; reports suggest the Democrats are moving closer to a deal on fiscal stimulus; Colombia September CPI came in a tad above expectations at 4.51% y/y; eurozone data came in very weak

September ISM services PMI will be the highlight; chatter is rising that Powell's chances of remaining Fed Chair have fallen due to the trading scandals; higher U.S. yields are lending some support to the dollar; U.K.-EU tensions continue to rise

The U.S. 10-year yield is trading around 1.50% as the new week begins; Fed speakers are limited this week; press reports the U.K. will trigger the so-called ‘nuclear’ option and unilaterally suspend parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol

The U.S. fiscal drama continues; our base case remains that the Democrats will eventually agree on a compromise; ISM manufacturing PMI will be the highlight; August core PCE data could help determine whether U.S. yields will continue rising

U.S. government shutdown has been averted, at least until December 3; there is a busy slate of Fed speakers; some key September readings will start to emerge; weekly claims data will be very important; Mexico is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 4.75%; Colombia is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 2.0%

The U.S. rates story has become the biggest driver for all asset classes; the rise in rates is taking a bit of a pause today; Fed Chair Powell came under fire from Senator Warren yesterday; Yellen warned her department that it will run out of cash October 18

U.S. 10-year yield continues to move higher; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers become plentiful but changes at the Fed are afoot; fiscal brinksmanship continues; Fed regional manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; Brazil central bank minutes will be released; BOE continues to beat the hawkish drum;

U.S. 10-year yield traded today at the highest level since June 29 near 1.50%; the current move in U.S. rates and the dollar should perhaps be viewed through the lens of past tapering; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers become plentiful; Fed regional manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; U.K. is taking emergency measures to deal with the energy crisis

Markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish hold; U.S. 10-year yield traded today at the highest level since July 2 near 1.45%; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers become plentiful

We are approaching a major regulatory inflection point for digital assets in general, and decentralized finance (DeFi) may end up being the ultimate battleground.

The Fed delivered a hawkish hold, as we expected; we think if job growth improves to around 500k this month, the Fed will pull the trigger on tapering; Powell said that gradual tapering is likely to conclude around mid-2022; there was a hawkish shift in the Dot Plots; Fed regional manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; Brazil hiked rates by 100 bp to 6.25%, as we expected; Mexico reports mid-September CPI

The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; new macro forecasts and Dot Plots will be released; U.S. is inching towards another possible government shutdown; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 6.25%

Two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow afternoon; Democratic lawmakers submitted a stopgap spending bill that also includes the suspension of the debt ceiling until December 2022; Prime Minister Trudeau will once again head up a minority government in Canada; U.K. energy crisis is worsening

The dollar comes into this key week with strong upward momentum; the dollar is also benefitting from risk-off impulses emanating from China; Canada goes to the polls today; the Evergrande saga is leading to heightened concerns about the Chinese financial system and contagion to broader financial markets; we are firmly on the side of expecting strong government intervention

August retail sales data are worth discussing; University of Michigan consumer confidence ties into this question about consumption; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September are starting off strong; ECB denied hawkish comments attributed to Chief Economist Lane; new forecasts from last week’s ECB meeting are not consistent with the FT story

U.S. August retail sales data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims will also be reported; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September will continue rolling out; minutes from the Chilean central bank’s latest meeting were unambiguously hawkish

August CPI is worth discussing; elevated PPI inflation suggests price pressures remain in play; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for September will start rolling out; Canada data highlight will be August CPI; Brazil rates were sharply lower after BCB President Campos Neto signaled he won’t overreact to the latest inflation print

August CPI will be closely watched; from what we can tell, supply bottlenecks will remain in place far longer than the market or the Fed expects

After the post-jobs report sell-off, the dollar has come roaring back; due to the media embargo ahead of the September 21-22 FOMC meeting, there will be no Fed speakers this week; the only U.S. data today is the August budget statement

August PPI data will be the data highlight; Mester speaks today; Canada reports August jobs data; Brazil IPCA inflation surprised on the upside yesterday at 9.68% y/y; Peru hiked rates by 50 bp to 1.0%, as expected

Now that the dust is settling after Brazil’s pro-government demonstrations, a clearer picture starts to emerge; it doesn’t look good to our eyes, but we may have reached a local maximum in tensions.

The Fed Beige Book report painted a fairly upbeat picture for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting; speakers this week suggest the Fed is looking through the August jobs miss; July JOLTS job opening are worth discussing; weekly claims data should show continued improvement in the labor market; BOC delivered a dovish hold, as expected; Peru is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.75%

July JOLTS job opening will be reported; Fed releases its Beige Book report for the September 21-22 FOMC meeting; Fed speakers this week should reveal how the Fed is viewing the August jobs miss; BOC is expected to keep policy steady; yesterday’s large pro-government protests across Brazil were mostly peaceful

The U.S. returns from holiday facing higher yields and a firmer dollar; markets are still digesting the jobs data and the implications for Fed policy; Brazil’s political risk remains very elevated with protests scheduled for today (Independence Day)

Markets are predictably quiet ahead of today’s U.S. payrolls data. The dollar is mixed in narrow moves. The Aussie is outperforming, perhaps in part boosted by a deal with the UK to secure four million doses of Pfizer. European equities and U.S. futures are a touch higher, but the Nikkei rose 2% on the prospect of a new prime minister (see below). Yields are a little changed across G10. In the commodity space, oil is hovering around $70 a barrel as the U.S. Gulf Coast grapples with the impact of hurricane Ida while gold was largely unchanged.

• Ethereum broke violently higher with multiple drivers still looking supportive; Crude prices stabilized this morning after a 2% drop yesterday on news that OPEC plans to boost crude production; Brazil's Q2 growth figures disappointed, but inflation remains the focus for now; Moody's cut Peru's credit rating by one notch; Eurozone PPI surprised on the upside, but the doves are firmly in control

August ADP jobs data will be the highlight; August ISM manufacturing PMI will also be key; Canada Q2 GDP data could have significant repercussions; Chile delivered a vigorous start to the tightening cycle by hiking 75 bp instead of the 50 bp expected

The dollar remains under pressure as real yields fall; August Chicago PMI will be the data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for August wrapped up yesterday with Dallas reporting; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report; eurozone inflation readings for August came in higher than expected

Our broad U.S. macro calls will be tested this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for August wrap up with Dallas reporting today; all eyes are on Hurricane Ida after it made landfall last night

All eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium; some are looking for Powell to make an explicit tapering announcement this morning; yesterday, three FOMC hawks laid out the case for tapering sooner rather than later; July personal spending, income, and core PCE data will be the highlight; weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing

All eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium as it begins today; U.S. stocks continue to make new highs and now it's time for yields to play some catch-up; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be very important; Brazil August IPCA inflation accelerated by more than expected to 9.30% y/y

The U.S. 2-year auction yesterday saw very strong demand; Pelosi struck a deal with moderate Democrats that will allow the two infrastructure packages to move forward; Brazil reports mid-August IPCA inflation and July current account data

Many markets remain rangebound ahead of Jackson Hole; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will continue to roll out; Mexico reports mid-August CPI

All eyes are on the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium later this week; the September 21-22 FOMC meeting is a more likely venue to formally announce tapering; data this week are expected to show continued strength in the U.S. economy

The same themes and price action direction prevailed overnight: delta-virus triggered selloff continues across assets combined with China’s crackdown against the tech sector. The Australian and New Zeeland dollars are underperforming, hit by increasing concerns about infections and declining commodity prices.

FOMC minutes are worth discussing; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be very important

July retail sales data are worth discussing; the U.S. economy should continue to post strong growth in Q3; FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports July C

July retail sales data will be the highlight; the U.S. manufacturing sector remains strong; add Rosengren to the growing list of Fed officials calling for imminent tapering; CLP is testing its weakest levels for the year on the back of negative political headlines

Markets are starting the week with a modest risk-off tone; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for August will start rolling out.

July jobs report is the main event; data will have a direct near-term impact on Fed policy the U.S. economy should continue to post strong growth in Q3; Canada also reports July jobs data

We got further confirmation that the FOMC is tilting more hawkish; U.S. Treasury quarterly refunding announcement came in as expected; ISM reported strong July services PMI but ADP jobs report suggests some caution is warranted; Brazil COPOM hiked rates 100 bp to 5.25%, as expected; BOE decision is due out shortly

The wider implications of yesterday’s hawkish hold from the RBA are worth discussing; within EM, the picture is mixed; ADP private sector jobs data is today’s highlight; ISM reports July services PMI; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 5.25%

Markets should take note of the growing assertiveness of the Fed hawks; July ISM manufacturing PMI came slightly softer than expected; Colombia central bank minutes will be released

In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key factors driving global economies.

Markets are still trading off Powell’s dovish press conference rather than the hawkish insertion of tapering in the official statement; ISM July manufacturing PMI will be today’s highlight; the U.S. economy should continue to post strong growth in Q3