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  • US Dollar on financial screen
    July 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish hold; we believe that tapering and rate hikes will both happen sooner than the market expects; weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched; we also get our first look at Q2 GDP; a compromise was struck on the traditional infrastructure package but the $3.5 trln “human infrastructure” package will face difficulties; Peru finally has an official president, and he continues to sound appeasing of market fears
  • Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
    July 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; Powell and company face a delicate balancing act; U.S. data continue to come in firm; Canada reports June CPI
  • The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
    July 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year real yields fell to a new record low of -1.14%; two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow; market expectations for Fed policy are worth mentioning; Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    July 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year real yields fell to a record low of -1.13% before recovering to -1.10%; the conflicting narratives will make the Fed’s job even trickier as it meets this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    July 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar is ending a good week on a solid note. DXY is trading just below 93 and is up two straight days and six of the past seven. Further gains are expected and it should eventually test the March 31 high near 93.437. The euro remains heavy after the ECB decision (see below) and the clean break below $1.18 sets up a test of the March 31 low near $1.1705. Sterling is having trouble breaking back above $1.38 as economic uncertainty picks up.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    July 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. 10-year yield is trading around 1.30%; central bank divergence will be underscored today with the ECB decision; weekly initial jobless claims will be closely watched; Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out; Republican Senators blocked debate on the infrastructure package; a battle over the debt ceiling is brewing; Mexico reports mid-July CPI data; Colombia announced a $4 bln tax plan to shore up public finances; the ECB decision should bring hints of further easing;
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    July 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Given the absence of any fresh drivers, markets are continuing with the recent recovery in risk appetite; U.S. fiscal policy remains highly uncertain ahead of a key Senate vote; Peru’s elected leftist president Pedro Castillo had his victory finally confirmed after weeks of dispute; U.K.-EU relations are set to flare up again
  • Blue line and bar graphs in front of a globe
    July 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Risk off impulses have quieted down, at least for now; U.S. stock futures are higher today after falling yesterday in sympathy with the general risk off mood; the U.S. fiscal outlook remains unclear
  • Yellow downward trending recession arrow on black financial graphs in background
    July 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar remains firm as the new week begins in risk off mode. DXY is up for the third straight day and is trading at the highest level since April 5 near 93. Further gains are expected as it moves toward a test of the March 31 high near 93.437. The euro remains heavy ahead of the ECB decision Thursday and the break below $1.18 sets up a test of the March 31 low near $1.1705. Sterling is also trading heavy as the government’s pandemic response comes under renewed scrutiny (see below). Cable is about to test the April 12 low near $1.3670 and further losses are likely. USD/JPY remains under pressure as risk off sentiment continues to take hold, though near-term support is seen around the July 8 low just above 109.50.
  • Green upward trending line in front of global map and various financial graphs
    July 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    • Powell stuck to the same tone on the second day of his testimony, while Bullard said it was time to end emergency measures. More hawkish comments out of the BoE yesterday, pressured short-end rates higher. Cases in the UK rose to the highest in six months. The BoJ policy meeting was uneventful, with no policy change and some headlines around the “green lending plan”; Higher CPI numbers validate the RBNZ’s hawkish stance
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    July 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still on board with Fed Powell’s reassuring message on inflation. The BoK kept rates unchanged while also tapering its bond purchases; Chile’s central bank joined Brazil and Mexico in their tightening cycle, while Turkey and Korea left rates unchanged, as expected. Crude continues its downward slide after U.S. supply data and signs that a supply deal on OPEC+ might be at hand
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    July 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The growing hawkishness of many central banks globally is fully on display this month; U.S. inflation readings will remain in focus; U.S. Treasury completed its note and bond issuance for the week; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming FOMC meeting; Chair Powell testifies before the House today and the Senate tomorrow; BOC is likely to taper again; Chile is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.75%
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    July 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. inflation readings will come into focus; we believe that the continued low rate environment will give the Fed more confidence to taper; U.S. Treasury issuance continues
  • Candle stick graphs and line graphs in front of purple and blue world map on a black background
    July 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The central bank divergence story is likely to come back into focus this week; U.S. Treasury note and bond issuance picks up again; the U.S. growth outlook for Q2 remains strong; Peru left rates unchanged Friday but the changes in forward guidance suggest officials are getting ready to hike soon; ECB asset purchases for the week ending July 9 will be reported; ECB President Lagarde is flagging further easing of some sort; U.K. will fully reopen July 19 even as Prime Minister Johnson urges caution
  • Stacked gray stones with pink sky in background
    July 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We are approaching the weekend with markets searching for direction; jobless claims yesterday were mixed; consumer credit continues to grow; Canada reports June jobs data; Mexico June headline inflation came in at 5.88% y/y, slightly higher than expected and definitely enough to justify Banxico’s hawkish turn; Brazil inflation for June came in slightly below forecast at 8.35% y/y; Brazil intervened in FX markets yesterday for the first time since March to stem the sharp reversal of the real
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    July 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The strong flattening trend in the U.S. yield curve that stated in mid-May has accelerated; FOMC minutes were released; some minor data will be reported; Mexico reports June CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; ECB will announce the results of its strategy review; it also releases its account of the June 10 meeting
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    July 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The divergence theme remains intact; FOMC minutes will be released; the bond market continues to confound; May JOLTS job openings will be reported; Canada reports June Ivey PMI; concerns about vaccine efficacy in Israel are giving global investors some trepidation
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    July 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We believe that the central bank divergence story will be one of the major drivers for FX in H2; US jobs data will be the highlight; other important snapshots for June point to underlying strength in the economy; Canada reports May building permits, trade, and June Markit manufacturing PMI; Fitch downgraded Colombia’s long-term foreign currency rating from investment grade (IG) to high yield (HY)
  • Rolled up bank-notes from various countries
    July 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    June ISM manufacturing PMI will be the highlight; weekly jobless claims data are expected to show continued improvement in the labor market; jobs data tomorrow are coming into focus; Fed speakers are likely to continue pushing the more hawkish narrative
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    June 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ADP reports June private sector jobs; Chicago PMI will also be reported; U.S. equities made another all-time high yesterday; Fed officials continue to tilt hawkish; NYT article today plays up a split on the FOMC; Canada reports April GDP
  • Blue and black globe with a glowing web of lines surrounding it
    June 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the jobs report Friday; some reports suggest ending enhanced unemployment benefits have not yet led to a boost in employment; Fed speakers are likely to continue pushing the more hawkish narrative this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will wrap up today; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%; Boris Johnson’s government is under the microscope during a key week
  • Glowing lines and financial graphs floating around a globe like rings
    June 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the jobs report Friday; some reports suggest ending enhanced unemployment benefits have not yet led to a boost in employment; Fed speakers are likely to continue pushing the more hawkish narrative this week; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will wrap up today; Colombia is expected to keep rates steady at 1.75%; Boris Johnson’s government is under the microscope during a key week
  • Candle stick graphs and line graphs in front of purple and blue world map on a black background
    June 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields and the dollar remain subdued; we are agreement with Bullard and Kaplan's comments yesterday and look for tapering by end-2021; core PCE for May will be reported; President Biden announced a tentative infrastructure deal with a group of ten centrist Senators from both parties; Mexico took the plunge into the hawkish camp with a surprise 25 bp rate hike yesterday to 4.25%; Brazil quarterly inflation report reinforced the trajectory of hikes from the statement
  • Bank of England with UK flag, The historical building in London, UK
    June 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Since the Fed’s hawkish hold last week, inflation expectations have fallen dramatically; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; we get another revision to Q1 GDP; Mexico is expected to keep rates steady at 4.0%; Chile central bank minutes were on the hawkish side, confirming a hike is coming in the next few meetings
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    June 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Fed Chair Powell delivered no surprises in his Congressional testimony yesterday; we believe tapering is closer than markets appreciate; Markit preliminary June PMI readings will be the highlight; minutes from Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) were decidedly hawkish
  • Upward trending line on green LED screen
    June 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields have rebounded sharply; Fed speakers will be plentiful; Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; Brazil central bank minutes will be released; the remarkable divergence within Latin America continues as the Brazilian real bucks the regional trend
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    June 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. yield curve continues to flatten; cross market measures of implied volatility have reawakened from the recent doldrums; with the media embargo over, Fed speakers will be plentiful this week; the U.S. growth outlook for Q2 remains strong
  • Blue glowing arrows pointing diagonally up
    June 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Meetings this week underscore our long-standing call for widening central bank divergences; at the heart of the matter is that those economies that were in strong shape before the pandemic are seeing strong recoveries; markets seem to be especially fixated on the huge move in the 5- to 30-year part of the U.S. Treasury curve; weekly jobless claims data were disappointing
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    June 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The FOMC delivered a hawkish hold, as we expected; Chair Powell gave an upbeat outlook at the press conference; June Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data should show continued healing of the labor market; Brazil delivered a 75 bp hike to 4.25% and signaled another one August 4, both as expected but added a hawkish tilt
  • The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
    June 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; May PPI surprised to the upside; May retail sales data are worth discussing; Canada reports May CPI; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 4.25%
  • Various blue and orange business trend graphs and charts on black screen
    June 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates have rebounded a bit ahead of today’s key data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision; May PPI and retail sales will be reported; June Fed manufacturing surveys will start to roll out
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    June 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates remain low as we enter a crucial week for the bond market; first and foremost is the risk of a hawkish hold from the Fed; ahead of the FOMC decision Wednesday, the market will get some key U.S. data tomorrow
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    June 11, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The G-7 summit begins today in Cornwall; May CPI data surprised the upside; yet U.S. rates continue to fall; next week’s FOMC meeting is coming into focus; weekly jobless claims data show continued healing of the labor market; Peru left rates on hold at 0.25% last night, as expected
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    June 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Many emerging market (EM) economies are also facing near-term inflation shocks, but there has been a wide divergence between how central banks are facing it. Some have reacted by frontloading hikes, while others have stuck to a strategy of talking down inflation risks.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    June 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    May CPI data will be the data highlight; weekly jobless claims data will be reported; BOC kept policy steady, as expected; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%; Brazil’s May IPCA inflation came in decidedly strong; the ECB is expected to extend its accelerated asset purchases into Q3
  • Yellow downward trending recession arrow on black financial graphs in background
    June 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. JOLTS job openings came in very strong in April; The U.S. growth outlook for Q2 also remains strong; BOC is expected to keep policy steady; last night, Chile delivered a hawkish hold and is yet another sign that the global liquidity story is at an inflection point; Brazil and Mexico report May inflation
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    June 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. fiscal policy remains a big unknown; today is a light day in North America; Chile is expected to keep rates steady at 0.50%; Peru’s electoral board has not yet announced an official winner for the presidential race; BRL continues to test the R$5.00 level even as fiscal headlines weigh on fixed income markets
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    June 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We do not believe that tapering discussions have been derailed by the jobs report; the other big unknown right now is fiscal policy; the ruling party in Mexico (Morena) suffered a notable defeat in the midterm elections and lost its super-majority in the lower house; initial tallies from Peru’s crucial presidential runoff elections show surprising gains for Keiko Fujimori
  • Dark earth glowing with blue lights
    June 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    May jobs data will be the highlight; ISM services PMI surprised to the upside; weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing; Chair Powell is the only Fed speaker today; Canada also reports May jobs data; Chilean assets were hit yesterday by a potential bill allowing investors to fully withdraw their pension savings
  • Financial stock market trading graphs on screen in blue and red
    June 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ADP reports private sector jobs data; ISM services PMI will be very important; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; the Fed was upbeat in its Beige Book report for the upcoming June 15-16 FOMC meeting
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    June 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming June 15-16 FOMC meeting; add St. Louis Fed President Bullard to the list of Fed officials that are tilting more hawkish; yesterday’s survey data points to ongoing strength in U.S. economy; USD/CAD traded at a new low for this move just above 1.20 yesterday before recovering; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report
  • Black Oil Barrels Close Together
    June 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    ISM PMI readings will be watched to see if they mirror last week’s blockbuster survey readings; Fed manufacturing surveys for May will wind up with Dallas today; Canada reports Q1 GDP and Markit May PMI
  • Stack of U.S. one hundred dollars notes
    May 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. core PCE has taken on greater importance as the inflation debate rages; May Chicago PMI will be reported and there are upside risks to the consensus 68.0; weekly jobless claims data are worth a mention
  • Yuan, Dollar, and Euro overlapping banknotes
    May 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; we get the first revision to Q1 GDP; Banco de Mexico minutes will be released
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    May 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The drop in U.S. yields continues; more Fed officials are talking about talking about tapering; Hungary left rates on hold at 0.60% yesterday but confirmed its hawkish stance; RBNZ unexpectedly delivered a hawkish hold;
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    May 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets have to start pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed going forward; stronger U.S. data ahead should feed into further tapering talk at the June 15-16 FOMC meeting; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; the prospect of left turn in Brazil’s politics is rising
  • Red and yellow decreasing line graphs in front of blue sky scrapers
    May 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Markets have to start pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed going forward; stronger U.S. data ahead should feed into further tapering talk at the June 15-16 FOMC meeting; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; the prospect of left turn in Brazil’s politics is rising
  • The flags of the European Union at the European Commission's headquarters.
    May 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Higher U.S. real rates are not doing the dollar any favors; preliminary May Markit PMI readings will be the highlight; research by the SF Fed suggests anecdotes of enhanced unemployment benefits keeping workers home are overstated; Canada reports March retail sales; BOC Governor Macklem delivered a sobering message regarding the housing market
  • The Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC
    May 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    FOMC minutes show that the Fed is now talking about talking about tapering; Kaplan is the only Fed speaker today; the Dot Plots for the June 15-16 FOMC meeting will take on more significance; Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be closely watched
  • Black Oil Barrels Close Together
    May 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Key FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports April CPI; Banco de Mexico official signaled low likelihood of any more rate cuts
  • Large downward sloping arrow in front of candle-stick and bar graphs in red
    May 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    With Fed officials remaining dovish as data paint a mixed picture for the U.S., markets are taking the dollar lower; Kaplan speaks today; Fed manufacturing surveys for May have started to roll out; Chilean assets have come under heavy pressure with the strong performance of far-left parties in the Constitutional Assembly elections
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    May 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar remains under pressure as U.S. rates continue to fall.
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    May 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The dollar is giving up some of its recent gains as U.S. rates fall. DXY is down after two straight up days and is trading soft after being unable to break above 91.
  • Industrial barrels stacks in waste yard
    May 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US inflation data will remain in focus; heavy US Treasury issuance this week concludes with a $27 bln sale of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims data may take on more importance after the big miss for April; Mexico, Chile, and Peru are all expected to keep rates steady
  • Silhouettes of Oil Pumps in Oil Field at Sunset
    May 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. inflation data come into focus; we think that risks to US yields lie to the upside; it’s worth taking a look at how U.S. core and headline inflation have behaved historically to supply shocks; the U.S. labor market remains in flux; more states are rejecting the enhanced unemployment benefits; U.S. Treasury issuance continues with a $41 bln sale of 10-year notes
  • Blue line and bar graphs in front of a globe
    May 11, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The debate about unemployment benefits is heating up after last week’s big miss on jobs; heavy US Treasury issuance this week starts off with a $58 bln sale of 3-year notes today; Fed speakers will remain plentiful; Brazil reports April IPCA inflation
  • Stacked gray stones with pink sky in background
    May 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The markets are still digesting the much weaker than expected jobs report from Friday; the debate between markets and the Fed has tilted more towards the latter; today is a quiet day in the U.S. before the upcoming flood of UST issuance and U.S. data
  • Upward trending line on green LED screen
    May 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    April jobs data will be the highlight; the U.S. growth outlook remains stronger than ever; the Fed’s financial stability report warned that rising risk appetite is stretching valuations and creating weakness in the US financial system; Canada also reports April jobs data; Mexico reports April CPI
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    May 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Comments by Treasury Secretary Yellen are worth discussing; ADP private sector jobs will be today’s highlight; ISM services PMI will also be reported; the U.S. growth outlook remains stronger than ever; Brazil is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 3.5%; Colombia central bank releases its quarterly inflation report
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    May 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The outlook for major Latin American markets continues to deteriorate, despite the favourable commodity cycle and relatively higher rates to support local currencies. Local politics and unfavourable pandemic outcomes are still our main reasons for concern, but external factors – strong dollar and higher U.S. yield – also create additional headwinds.
  • Stack of U.S. one hundred dollars notes
    May 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. data yesterday were mixed but still point to underlying strength in the economy; despite the PMI reading, the U.S. outlook remains stronger than ever; Fed speakers remain plentiful; COP is under heavy downward pressure on the back of negative political headlines
  • Blue financial market graphs with red light at the graph's peak
    May 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. economy continues to sizzle; therein lies the crux of our strong dollar outlook; April ISM manufacturing PMI is the data highlight
  • Floating blue currency symbols on black background
    April 30, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We got our first look at Q1 GDP yesterday; therein lies the crux of our strong dollar outlook; keep an eye on two spreads that will support our bearishness on the euro; today’s data highlight is April Chicago PMI; Colombia is expected to keep rate steady at 1.75%
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    April 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are climbing as markets continue to digest the FOMC decision; the Fed delivered a dovish hold, as expected; markets are starting to look for signs of tapering and that was the first question for Powell; we get our first look at Q1 GDP; weekly jobless claims will be reported
  • Federal Reserve Cloudy Day
    April 28, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; we will be putting out a lengthy piece this week about the Fed’s likely roadmap for tapering; U.S. yields are rising ahead of the decision
  • Blue and green financial line graph on black LED screen
    April 27, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC meeting begins today and ends with a decision tomorrow afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; Brazil reports mid-April IPCA inflation.
  • Close-up of eagle on a wrinkled one dollar bill.
    April 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The latest Bloomberg survey shows growing expectations of Fed tapering in Q4; yields are picking a bit ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow and ends with a decision Wednesday afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    April 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Senate Republicans offered a $568 bln compromise spending package; President Biden will reportedly propose a hike in the capital gains tax; weekly jobless claims data point to a solid NFP reading; preliminary US Markit April PMI readings will be reported
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    April 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US bond yields remain depressed; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims are for the BLS survey week; BOC delivered a hawkish hold; other central banks may also be willing to start tapering QE before year-end; Mexico reports mid-April CPI; ECB is expected to keep all policy settings unchanged
  • Red and yellow decreasing line graphs in front of blue sky scrapers
    April 21, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US bond yields remain depressed ahead of a 20-year bond auction; BOC meeting ends with a decision this morning; ahead of the decision, Canada reports March CPI; BRL saw some relief yesterday after congress (finally) agreed on the budget
  • Yuan, Dollar, and Euro overlapping banknotes
    April 20, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Bitcoin saw a roughly 10% flash crash over the weekend; US Treasury yields continue to tumble; the Trudeau government releases its 2021 budget
  • Climber using pick axe to club up deep ice cavern
    April 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Bitcoin saw a roughly 10% flash crash over the weekend; US Treasury yields continue to tumble; the Trudeau government releases its 2021 budget
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    April 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Yesterday’s US data was simply stellar; the US growth outlook remains very strong; yet bond yields tumbled; data today are minor
  • Various blue and orange business trend graphs and charts on black screen
    April 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    We are likely to get signs today that the U.S. economy continues to roar; March retail sales data will be the highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will start to roll out; weekly jobless claims should show resumed improvement in the labor market; Fed Beige Book report is worth a mention
  • Puzzle that is missing a piece revealing dollar-bill in missing hole
    April 14, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US yields are crashing lower and removing some crucial support for the dollar; US CPI came in a tad higher than expected; heavy US Treasury issuance this week was easily absorbed; Fed Beige Book report will be released
  • Upward trending arrows, bar graphs, and line graphs
    April 13, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US inflation data will come back into focus; US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; all of this comes on top of heavy US Treasury issuance this week
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    April 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; US inflation data will come into focus; weekly jobless claims were disappointing; Canada reports March jobs data; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation
  • Blue charts and numbers for COVID-19 cases with 3d renderings of germs
    April 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US yields are creeping higher and giving the dollar some support; US inflation data will come into focus; weekly jobless claims were disappointing; Canada reports March jobs data; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation
  • Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
    April 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Market expectations for Fed tightening continue to move the other way; FOMC minutes are worth a mention; Fed policymakers continue to stress the new outcome-based strategy; weekly jobless claims should show resumed improvement in the labor market; Mexico reports March CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%
  • Yellow downward trending recession arrow on black financial graphs in background
    April 07, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Despite string US data, US yields continue to edge lower; FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports March Ivey PMI and February trade
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    April 06, 2021
    • Investor Services
    President Biden’s path to the next round of stimulus just got easier; the US economy continues to roar; while US long yields have stabilized for now, market expectations for Fed tightening continue to adjust
  • Blue and black globe with a glowing web of lines surrounding it
    April 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Last week’s jobs data confirm our view that the US economy is gathering momentum; ISM services PMI will be today’s highlight; the US growth outlook remains very strong; Colombia reports March CPI
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    April 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Risk appetite is returning ahead of the Easter holidays. Equity markets are broadly higher, with gains of around 0.8% for EM Asian indices, the Nikkei adding 0.7%, and the EuroStoxx 600 up 0.5%. U.S. futures are pointing to a small positive open. Fixed income markets are stable after U.S. President Biden announced his fiscal plan, mostly as expected. The 10-year yield is at 1.72%. The dollar is mixed, weakening against EM currencies but slightly firmer against majors. Oil is bouncing back ahead of the OPEC meeting, with Brent up 1.5% to $63.7 per barrel.
  • Colorful stacked oil drums
    March 29, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The next fiscal package is shaping up to be quite large and focusing on infrastructure. The EU has hardened its position towards AstraZeneca vaccines. Oil prices were under pressure from favorable news regarding the Suez Canal ship blockage. Geopolitical tensions surrounding China are set to worsen but probably not leading to disruptive action. BOJ minutes reinforced the bank's pro-active yet accommodative mode.
  • Green upward trending line in front of global map and various financial graphs
    March 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Equities across the APAC region closed the week on the front foot, following the U.S. close higher on positive vaccine distribution news. The Nikkei and Shanghai Comp were both +1.5%. Oil resumed its journey higher as the container stuck in the Suez Canal showed no sign of moving (Brent is back to $63). Treasury yields were higher following the poor 7-year note auction yesterday, leaving the 10-year yields at 1.65%. The dollar is mostly weaker, down about 0.5% against commodity currencies (NOK, AUD, MXN) but slightly stronger against the yen. TRY is underperforming, with USD/TRY back above the 8.0 mark.
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    March 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    APAC equities were mixed with the Nikkei closing 1%, Chinese indices little changed, and the India Sensex down 0.7%. EU and UK showed signs that vaccine sharing could be achieved while FED Powel was bullish on unemployment and growth, and still looking through inflation. This helped stabilize equity markets in Europe, which are little changed to slightly lower. U.S. futures are slightly higher. The dollar is mixed but mostly trading in narrow ranges, same for sovereign debt yields. Brent crude declined 1% in Asia Efforts to dislodge the Suez Canal blockage continued with it likely being days before trade can resume.
  • Colorful stacked oil drums
    March 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Risk sentiment remains fragile across markets. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are stable at just over 1.60% after a large downward move yesterday. Global equity markets are broadly weaker, especially in Asia, though U.S. equity futures are slightly higher. The dollar is mixed, weakening against commodity currencies (NOK, ZAR, MXN) but broadly weaker against most major currencies. Oil prices are staging a tentative rebound after the sharp drop over the last few sessions.
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The same underlying risks continue to dominate market sentiment: concerns about rising yields, the threat of a third wave of the virus globally, the spat over the AstraZeneca vaccine, and US/Chinese tensions.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    March 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Turkish President Erdogan shocked the market by replacing the central bank governor, sending the lira on a tailspin; The virus dramas continue to deepen with some E.U. countries moving towards extending lockdowns and threatening to block vaccine exports to the U.K.; Market pricing for the first Fed hike continues to adjust towards earlier tightening; The increase in global yields has been a global phenomenon, but it has been happening faster and earlier in EM than in developed markets.; The PBoC kept its lending rates unchanged, as expected.
  • Colorful stacked oil drums
    March 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US Treasury yields are off their recent highs but the situation remains tense; market pricing for the first Fed hike continues to adjust; strong US data should keep pressure on US rates to move higher; Canada reports January retail sales; BOE delivered a dovish hold, as expected; Reports suggest the UK and EU may reach an agreement on financial regulation by the end of this month; Russia opted to kick off the tightening cycle
  • Green upward trending line in front of global map and various financial graphs
    March 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The FOMC delivered exactly what was expected; Chair Powell stuck with the party line; US yields continue to climb in the wake of yesterday’s FOMC decision; Brazil delivered a stronger tightening in its first move of the cycle
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    March 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The FOMC ends a two-day meeting with a likely dovish hold this afternoon; markets are clearly not on board with the Fed’s messaging on rates US rates are at the highs ahead of the decision; February retail sales data are worth discussing; Canada reports February CPI; Brazil is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 2.5%
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The FOMC begins a two-day meeting that ends with a decision tomorrow; February retail sales data will be the US data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for March have started to roll out; Brazil’s economy expanded faster than expected in January, which should embolden the central bank to validate the rate hikes priced in
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 15, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Reports suggest President Biden is planning a major tax hike to help pay for the infrastructure bill; the US curve continues to steepen ahead of the FOMC meeting; Fed manufacturing surveys for March start to roll out
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US Treasury yields are back on the upswing; US PPI data will be the highlight; Canada reports February jobs data
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 11, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US inflation concerns have eased, at least for now; the 10-year Treasury auction yesterday saw enough demand not to rattle markets but was by no means strong; President Biden got his first major political victory with the stimulus bill passing the House; February budget statement is worth discussing; Brazil reports February IPCA inflation; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 0.25%
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US inflation data take center stage; heavy US Treasury issuance continues; President Biden’s stimulus plan should be approved today in the House; February budget statement will draw some attention; Canada is expected to keep policy unchanged
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The US fiscal stimulus narrative is by no means over; US 10-year yields are off their recent highs, now around 1.52%; volatility in the bond markets comes alongside US Treasury issuance this week; it was a perfect storm for Brazil; Mexico reports February CPI
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The US curve continues to steepen to new highs; near-term inflation expecations in the US contiue to rise, but longer-dated measures have been lagging, which can be seen as a positive sign for the Fed; US bond market faces some serious challenges this week; President Biden’s stimulus plan enters the final stretch
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 05, 2021
    • Investor Services
    February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 04, 2021
    • Investor Services
    February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 03, 2021
    • Investor Services
    February ADP private sector jobs report will be the highlight; the US growth outlook remains strong; Fed releases its Beige Book report; measures of inflation expectations in the US are showing a mixed picture
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 02, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The US economy is gathering momentum in Q1; Democratic lawmakers are moving ahead with a relief package that does not contain a minimum wage provision; Senator Warren unveiled her proposal for a wealth tax
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 01, 2021
    • Investor Services
    All eyes are on the US bond market this week; the dollar is the missing piece of the reflation trade as it builds on its Friday turnround; this week offers Fed officials a final opportunity to hone their message to the markets; February ISM manufacturing PMI will be the data highlight The ECB releases details of its bond-buying operations for last week; Germany reports February CPI; firm final eurozone February manufacturing PMI readings were reported BOJ stand ready to maintain YCC ahead of the policy meeting March 18-19; RBA announced a substantial increase of its YCC efforts by increasing the amounts and maturities of its purchases; the drama comes ahead of the RBA meeting tomorrow; Caixin reported softer China manufacturing PM; IHong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is overhauling its weightings and composition; Korea reported firm February trade data; crypto currencies have had a wild ride over the last few sessions
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 26, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The Fed’s nonchalance regarding rising yields is noteworthy; The ECB continues to jawbone rising yields; if actual bond purchases can’t stop yields from rising, mere jawboning will have little lasting impact; France and Spain gave us the first snapshots for February CPI; Japan data came in better than expected; BOJ Governor Kuroda stressed steady policy to parliament; Australia yields continued to rise despite RBA intervention; BOK also joined in the bond purchase action to stabilize rising yields; India reports Q4 GDP data
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 25, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 24, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 23, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The main event will be Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; the rise in US yields hasn’t yet had a significant impact on the corporate bond market, but outflows from high-yield ETFs are picking up
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 22, 2021
    • Investor Services
    US Treasury yields continue to march higher, increasing concerns about the potential impact on other assets; we suspect the bond market is keeping a close eye in President Biden’s relief package; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 19, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The global increase in longer-dated yields continues; US surveys for February will continue to roll out; Canada reports December retail sales
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 18, 2021
    • Investor Services
    •January retail sales data may have been a game-changer; really, data this week have been pretty much everything a dollar bull could ask for; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims data will be watched closely; FOMC minutes are worth discussing
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 17, 2021
    • Investor Services
    January retail sales data will be the US data highlight; January PPI data will also hold some interest; some cracks may be starting to appear; FOMC minutes will be released this afternoon; Canada reports January CPI
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 16, 2021
    • Investor Services
    With the impeachment trial over, Congress turns its attention back to the stimulus package; the US curve continues to steepen to new highs; January retail sales data tomorrow will be key for the dollar’s near-term outlook; Fed manufacturing surveys for February will start to roll out
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 12, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Weekly jobless claims data are worth discussing as they suggest labor market stress is ongoing; Treasury completed its sale of $126 bln in total coupon debt this week; the CBO forecasts a wider budget deficit for 2021
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 11, 2021
    • Investor Services
    January CPI came in lower than expected; Treasury will sell $27 bln of 30-year bonds; weekly jobless claims data will be watched for signs of improvement
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 10, 2021
    • Investor Services
    January CPI data will be the US data highlight; Treasury will sell $41 bln of 10-year notes; January budget statement will draw some attention;
  • planet earth from space with sun rising
    February 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Our take on the latest drives for EM Asian markets.
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    February 09, 2021
    • Investor Services
    Reports suggest President Biden is likely to push through much of his aid proposal without Republican support; high yield corporate bonds are extending their rally; US Treasury will sell $58 bln of three-year notes
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    February 08, 2021
    • Investor Services
    The U.S. curve continues to steepen to new highs; market appetite will be tested this week with heavy UST supply; inflation expectations continue to rise in the U.S.

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