BBH Structured Fixed Income Quarterly Strategy Update – 3Q 2022

September 30, 2022
Portfolio Managers, Neil Hohmann, Andrew Hofer, and Chris Ling provide an analysis of the investment environment and most recent quarter-end results of the Structured Fixed Income strategy.

3Q Highlights

  • Today is arguably the best entry point into shorter duration structured credit we have seen in decades given the partly inverted Treasury yield curve and credit spread levels at the upper end of their historical range.
  • We believe the environment of 2022 offers another proof point for the pronounced durability of most segments of structured credit. Fundamental credit metrics have remained strong amid turbulence.
  • New issue bond markets were quieter this quarter as some issuers took a pause in the face of the rate rise, but we expect an uptick in activity during the fourth quarter.

We enter the final quarter of 2022 amid unprecedented bond market price declines propelled by persistently high inflation, aggressive central bank tightening, and geopolitical instability. After a brief, healthier start to the third quarter, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued interest rate hikes with a back-to-back 75 basis points1 (bps) increase in August and September that accelerated selling pressures. By quarter end, bond and equity prices were down sharply, with the latter entering historic “bear market” territory.

As Exhibit I shows, aggregate bond, corporate bond, and agency mortgage-backed security (MBS) indices were all down about 5% in the quarter. In stark contrast, the actively managed, diversified Structured Fixed Income Composite returned -0.81% gross (-0.89% net), effectively outperforming many fixed income alternatives. Through the course of the year, the BBH-managed structured credit Composite has returned -5.02% gross (-5.27% net) versus double-digit declines in other fixed income sectors.

 

Exhibit I: BBH Structured Composite vs. Structured Fixed Income Indexes

  Returns (bps) OAS to Tsy (bp)
  3 Mo Return (bps) YTD Return
(bp)
OAS 3 Mo Change  Option-Adj Yield Duration
(Years)
WAL
(Years)
Average
Rating
BBH Structured Fixed Income Composite* -81 -502 421 -5 8.14% 2.26 2.64 A/BBB
Bloomberg ABS Index -134 -506 53 -22 4.84% 2.16 2.32 AAA/AA
Blooomberg Non-Agency CMBS Index -317 -1130 153 1 5.72% 4.09 4.70 AAA/AA
JPM Other ABS Index -229 -875 203 -30 6.31% 3.46 4.01 AAA/AA
JPM CLO Index** -11 -273 307 19 7.16% 0.25 4.39 AA
Bloomberg MBS Index -535 -1366 69 23 4.83% 5.94 8.10 AAA
Bloomberg Agg Index -475 -1461 62 7 4.75% 6.20 8.52 AAA/AA
Bloomberg Corp (IG) Index -506 -1872 159 4 5.69% 7.09 11.03 A/BBB
Past performance is no guarantee of future results
* Gross of fees, ** Opon cost for CLO index is set to 20 bps
The representave index is the Bloomberg Asset Backed Securies (ABS) Index, which is the ABS component of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index. The ABS Index has
three subsectors: credit and charge cards, autos and ulity. The index includes pass-through, bullet, and controlled amorzaon structures. The ABS Index includes
only the senior class of each ABS issue and the ERISA-eligible B and C tranche.
OAS = Opon-Adjusted Spread; WAL = Weighted Average Life
Data as of September 30, 2022
Sources: Bloomberg, JP Morgan, and BBH Analysis

The forward outlook for structured credit is very encouraging as well. Today is arguably the best entry point into shorter duration structured credit we have seen in decades given the partly inverted Treasury yield curve and credit spread levels at the upper end of their historical range.

A representative account in the BBH Structured Fixed Income strategy now offers an 8.1% yield on a high-quality, short duration, investment-grade portfolio that is well-diversified across more than 20 underlying asset types.2 The hefty compensation derives from a heavy new issue supply coupled to a more limited pool of investors familiar with structured securities. The short maturity characteristics of asset-backed securities (ABS), collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and single-asset, single-borrower (SASB) commercial MBS continue to limit price downside while their high-quality collateral pools and structural protections minimize downgrade risk. With the risk of a U.S. downturn, the structured credits we own today demonstrate solid credit fundamentals and are stress tested against depression-like conditions.

In the rest of this quarterly update, we demonstrate how even amid the macroeconomic challenges investors face today, we are finding remarkable security level opportunities in which to invest.

Great Values on Offer

With a partly inverted yield curve that tops out at 2-to-3-year tenors, expectations of significantly greater Fed policy tightening, and credit spreads towards the upper end of their historical range, short duration off-the-run credit sectors (e.g., ABS, SASB CMBS, CLOs, and more niche corporate sectors) offer remarkable value today - in both absolute terms and relative to other fixed income sectors. For instance, it is not often that 2-year AA rated and A rated traditional ABS (prime auto and credit card) offer a sizable yield pickup over the Intermediate Corp index. Similarly non-traditional A rated and BBB rated ABS,3 CLOs and CMBS offer higher returns of 6% to 8% in this unusual curve and spread environment. In addition, given the longer-term nature of one driver (a tightening Fed), it is more likely these compensation advantages may persist over a few quarters versus the reversals we saw after 2008 and 2020. In these compelling asset types and sectors, BBH has a particularly strong presence and access to the broad opportunity set.

Valuations in the structured credit market are unusually compelling, as wide credit spreads coincide with the 2- to 3-year maturities where today’s Treasury yields are highest. As Exhibit II shows, the yields in structured credit indices substantially exceed much of the high-grade corporate market, yet their rate duration is shorter; even yields on more traditional securitized segments where we typically pass (such as the mostly AAA rated prime auto and credit card ABS in the mainstream indexes) are now above the Intermediate Corporate Bond Index.

As Exhibit III shows, yields like these are rare. In recent history, yields on an investment-grade (IG) structured credit portfolio only briefly topped 8% during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic amidst systemic concerns over loan defaults and deteriorating fundamentals. Notably, we are now achieving similar yields when fundamentals seem strong – and our holdings are stress-tested against a depression-like scenario far worse than any economic slowdown or recession looming today.

 


Exhibit II - Scatter plot of various fixed income indexes, positioned by their respective durations on the x-axis and their respective yield-to-worsts on the y -axis. The chart also includes the BBH Structured Fixed Income strategy and the U.S. Treasury yield curve at key durations. Data as of September 30, 2022.


Exhibit III – Line graphs showing the month-end yields to worst of the BBH Structured Fixed Income strategy, the Bloomberg ABS Index, and the Bloomberg Non-Agency CMBS Index from December 31, 2012 through September 30, 2022.


Solid Credit Fundamentals Support the Resilience of Structured Credit Markets

We believe the environment of 2022 offers another proof point for the pronounced durability of most segments of structured credit. A multitude of factors could have conceivably unsettled structured credit: concerns over the Russia/Ukraine conflict, energy markets, natural disasters, Fed tightening, bond fund outflows, and elevated issuance. Yet, structured credit markets have remained orderly amid such turbulence with spreads on many segments marginally higher in sympathy with broader markets. We continue to experience market liquidity like that of corporate bonds.

Meanwhile, the fundamentals of ABS, CLOs, and CMBS remain strong. U.S. consumer and commercial borrower balance sheets show evidence of strength and health at this point in the cycle. CMBS loan delinquencies continue to decline and valuations have been supported by capitalization rates on commercial properties that have only partially reflected rising Treasury rates. Pockets of weakness remain in retail and office properties, but we manage those risks through focusing on high-quality, SASB transactions.

High quality collateral, low delinquency rates, and hefty credit enhancement beneath notes have provided tailwinds to strong underlying credit performance. We have seen scant ratings watch or downgrade activity in ABS, CLOs, and CMBS this year.

A couple of events during the quarter impacted securitizations, neither of them had any detrimental impact to our holdings. First, the U.S. government’s student loan forgiveness plan was announced. Student loans held by the Department of Education are eligible for forgiveness, while federal loans held privately, including in ABS trusts, are not. Student loan forgiveness should be a positive to the U.S. consumer, as it should ease consumer debt burdens and provide more capacity in budgets for credit card, auto, and home spending. We do not carry any meaningful positions in student loan ABS in our client portfolios. Second, Hurricane Ian damaged parts of Florida, South Carolina, and Cuba, tragically impacting the lives of many. Positions in SASB CMBS in our portfolios avoided direct path damages from the hurricane, although it is important to note that proper insurance coverage is a key requirement of our investment research criteria.

Issuance: Volatility Creates a Respite from Robust Pace

New issue bond markets were quieter this quarter as some issuers took a pause in the face of the rate rise, while investors wrestled somewhat with mutual fund outflows and price markdowns in a softer economy. Nonetheless, as Exhibit IV shows, year-to-date volumes remain only slightly behind the record paces observed over the past few years. We are already seeing issuance rebound in the fourth quarter as issuers catch up after a recent pause.
 


Exhibit IV – Stacked bar charts showing the quarterly issuance volumes of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), asset-backed securities (ABS), and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) from the first quarter of 2019 through the third quarter of 2022.

Our Activity

Despite a slowdown in issuance, we maintained a high level of activity and found several attractive opportunities during the quarter.

We participated in a triple net lease deal issued by CF Hippolyta Investor LLC, a subsidiary of funds managed by Fortress Investment Group. The deal is backed by mortgages on Amazon fulfillment and last-mile delivery centers that are operationally essential in their respective areas. We invested in the AA rated tranche at a spread of +300 basis points to Treasuries.

We invested in a small business loan deal issued by National Funding, where we found the AA and A-rated notes appealing at spreads of +325 and +400 basis points, respectively, over Treasuries. National Funding returned to the ABS market for the first time since their successful 2020 early amortization (wind-down) of their last securitization, a demonstration of the underlying durability of the collateral’s performance.

Pawnee Equipment Receivables sponsored a small ticket equipment securitization and we purchased the AAA rated notes at a spread of 220 basis points over Treasuries.

We purchased bonds from a small business loan securitization brought by Newtek Small Business Finance Inc. (Newtek). Newtek makes U.S. Small Business Administration 7(a) loans for equipment, machinery, commercial real estate, and to refinance debt and fund franchises. We purchased the A- rated and BBB- rated floating-rate notes at spreads of +280 and +375 basis points, respectively, over the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR).4

We participated in Golub Capital Partners recurring revenue ABS deal. Recurring revenue loans are underwritten based on contracted recurring revenue for companies that are past early-stage startup and approaching free cash flow breakeven. Golub has had a pristine recurring revenue loan history since 2013. We purchased A- and BBB rated bonds at spreads of +328 and +453 basis points, respectively, to Treasuries.

In the CMBS market, we purchased bonds from two floating-rate, single-borrower securitizations sponsored by Blackstone that enjoyed thick equity cushions beneath the debt. BX 2022-PSB is secured by 138 primarily industrial properties that were 96% leased and benefits from low loan-to-value based on deep sponsor equity and further credit enhancements. We participated in the AA- rated notes at a spread of +310 basis points over SOFR. BX 2022-GPA is secured by 51 student housing properties, consisting of 10,461 units and 32,837 beds, spread across 15 states and 28 universities. We purchased the Aa3/AA- rated notes at a spread of +275 basis points to SOFR and the A3/A- rated notes at a spread of +330 basis points to SOFR.

We also purchased bonds of floating-rate, single borrower CMBS deal secured by 196 InTown Suites extended stay hotel properties rated A- at a spread of +380 basis points over SOFR and BBB- at a spread of +425 basis points over SOFR.

We purchased A rated bonds issued by Stratus CLO, a CLO managed by Blackstone Credit, at a spread of +400 basis points over SOFR.

Finally, we identified compelling value in debt issued by business development companies (BDCs), including bonds of leading BDC managers Ares Capital Corp rated Baa3/BBB-/BBB at a spread of +375 basis points over Treasuries and Owl Rock Capital Corp rated Baa3/BBB- at a spread of +436 basis points over Treasuries.

Active Management Remains Key to Investing in Attractive Credits Amid Macroeconomic Challenges

We are finding a particularly rich array of security-level opportunities in the structured credit markets, allowing investors to achieve remarkable yields in today’s bond market. As we prepare for a potential Fed-driven recession, we believe active management is key to parse a plethora of attractive opportunities against suspect credit fundamentals or valuations. Our approach mandates owning only credits that are likely to perform through dire economic environments. We are pleased to partner with you through this challenging environment and we welcome your dialogue and questions in the months ahead.

Performance As of September 30, 2022

  Total Returns
Average Annual Total Returns

Composite/Benchmark

3 Mo.*

YTD*

1 Yr.

3 Yr.

5 Yr.

Since Inception

BBH Structured Fixed Income Composite (Gross of Fees)

-0.81%

-5.02%

-4.72%

1.20%

2.82%

3.47%

BBH Structured Fixed Income Composite (Net of Fees)

-0.89%

-5.27%

-5.05%

0.84%

2.47%

3.11%

Bloomberg US ABS Index

-1.34%

-5.06%

-5.61%

-0.24%

1.02%

1.29%

*Returns are not annualized. BBH Structured Fixed Income Composite inception date is 01/01/2016.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Bloomberg ABS Index is the ABS component of the Bloomberg US Aggregate index and is comprised of credit and charge card receivables, autos loan receivables, and utility receivables with at least an average life of one year, $500 million deal size and $25 million tranche size and an investment grade rating (Baa3/BBB- or higher) by at least two NRSROs. The index is not available for direct investment.

1 A unit that is equal to 1/100th of 1% and is used to denote the change in a financial instrument.
2
The Representative Account is managed with the same investment objectives and employs substantially the same investment philosophy and processes as the Structured Fixed Income strategy.
3
Traditional ABS include prime auto backed loans, credit cards and student loans (FFELP). Non-traditional ABS include ABS backed by other collateral types
4 SOFR = Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which is a broad measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight collateralized by Treasury securities.

Risks

Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks including market, interest-rate, issuer, credit, and inflation risk; investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities have prepayment and extension risks.

Single-Asset, Single-Borrower (SASB) lacks the diversification of a transaction backed by multiple loans since performance is concentrated in one commercial property. SASBs may be less liquid in the secondary market than loans backed by multiple commercial properties.

Asset-Backed Securities (“ABS”) are subject to risks due to defaults by the borrowers; failure of the issuer or servicer to perform; the variability in cash flows due to amortization or acceleration features; changes in interest rates which may influence the prepayments of the underlying securities; misrepresentation of asset quality, value or inadequate controls over disbursements and receipts; and the ABS being structured in ways that give certain investors less credit risk protection than others.

Below investment grade bonds, commonly known as junk bonds, are subject to a high level of credit and market risks.

Foreign investing involves special risks including currency risk, increased volatility, political risks, and differences in auditing and other financial standards.
The Structured Fixed Income Strategy Representative Account is managed with the same investment objectives and employs substantially the same investment philosophy and processes as the strategy.

The securities discussed do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for advisory clients and you should not assume that investments in the securities were or will be profitable.

Opinions, forecasts, and discussions about investment strategies represent the author’s views as of the date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice.
Issuers with credit ratings of AA or better are considered to be of high credit quality, with little risk of issuer failure. Issuers with credit ratings of BBB or better are considered to be of good credit quality, with adequate capacity to meet financial commitments. Issuers with credit ratings below BBB are considered to be of good credit quality, with adequate capacity to meet financial commitments. Issuers with credit ratings below BBB are considered speculative in nature and are vulnerable to the possibility of issuer failure or business interruption. The Not Rated category applies to Non-Government related securities that could be rated but have no rating from Standard and Poor’s or Moody’s. Not Rated securities may have ratings from other nationally recognized statistical recognized statistical rating organizations.

Brown Brothers Harriman Investment Management (“IM”), a division of Brown Brothers Harriman & Co (“BBH”), claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse or promote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein.

To receive additional information regarding IM, including a GIPS Composite Report for the strategy, contact John Ackler at 212 493-8247 or via email at john.ackler@ bbh.com.

Gross of fee performance results for this composite do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Actual returns will be reduced by such fees. “Net” of fees performance results reflect the deduction of the maximum investment advisory fees. Returns include all dividends and interest, other income, realized and unrealized gain, are net of all brokerage commissions, execution costs, and without provision for federal or state income taxes. Results will vary among client accounts. Perfor­mance calculated in U.S. dollars.

The objective of our Structured Fixed Income Strategy is to deliver excellent returns in excess of industry benchmarks through market cycles. The Composite includes all fully discretionary fee-paying accounts with an initial investment equal to or greater than $10 million that are managed to the Structured Fixed Income strategy. The target duration may range from 2 to 6 years. Investments are focused on asset-backed and related structured fixed income securities. Holdings are primarily investment grade but non-investment grade securities may be held. Investments may include non-dollar fixed income.

Standard deviation measures the historical volatility of a returns. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the volatility. The Sharpe ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate (the Fed Funds rate).

Definitions

DC Corporate is computed as an equal-weighted index of corporate bonds issued by business development companies (BDCs) that BBH holds with at least one year until legal, final maturity.

The BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market.

JP Morgan CLO Index (JPM CLO) is a market value weighted benchmark tracking U.S. dollar denominated broadly-syndicated, arbitrage CLOs. The index is comprised solely of cash, arbitrage CLOs backed by broadly syndicated leveraged loans. All CLOs included in the index must have a closing date that is on or after January 1, 2004. There are no weighted average life (WAL) limitations. There are no minimum tranche size restrictions.

JP Morgan Other ABS Index (Non-Tradional ABS), is an index that represents ABS backed by consumer loans, timeshare, containers, franchise, settlement, stranded assets, tax liens, insurance premium, railcar leases, servicing advances and miscellaneous esoteric assets of the The J.P. Morgan Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Index. The JP Morgan Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Index is a benchmark that represents the market of US dollar denominated, tradable ABS instruments. The ABS Index contains 20 different sub-indices separated by industry sector and fixed and floating bond type. The aggregate index represents over 2000 instruments at a total market value close to $500 trillion dollars; an estimated 70% of the entire $680 billion outstanding in the US ABS market.

Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index is a market value-weighted index that tracks the daily price, coupon, pay-downs, and total return performance of fixed-rate, publicly placed, dollar-denominated, and non-convertible investment grade debt issues with at least $300 million par amount outstanding and with at least one year to final maturity.

Intermediate Aggregate (AA) represents securities in the intermediate maturity range of the Bloomberg Aggregate Index.

Bloomberg US 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Index is an index of fixed rate obligations of the U.S. Treasury with maturities ranging from 1 to 3 years.

Bloomberg 1-10 Year Municipal Bond Index is a component of the Bloomberg Municipal Bond index, including bonds with maturity dates between one and 17 years. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index is considered representative of the broad market for investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year.

Bloomberg Intermediate Gov/Credit Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the non-securitized component of the US Aggregate Index with less than 10 years to maturity. The index includes investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate treasuries, government-related, and corporate securities.

Bloomberg US Intermediate Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes USD denominated securities publicly issued by U.S. and non-U.S. industrial, utility and financial issuers that have between 1 and up to, but not including, 10 years to maturity.

Bloomberg US TIPS Index includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities that have at least one year remaining to maturity, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value.

Bloomberg US ABS Index is the asset backed securities component of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. The index includes pass-through, bullet, and controlled amortization structures. The ABS Index includes only the senior class of each ABS issue and the ERISA-eligible B and C tranche.

The Bloomberg Non-AAA ABS Index (Non-AAA Traditional ABS) is non-AAA ABS components of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, a market value-weighted index that tracks the daily price, coupon, pay-downs, and total return performance of fixed-rate, publicly placed, dollar-denominated, and non-convertible investment grade debt issues with at least $300 million par amount outstanding and with at least one year to final maturity.

Bloomberg US MBS Index tracks fixed-rate agency mortgage backed pass-through securities guaranteed by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The index is constructed by grouping individual TBA-deliverable MBS pools into aggregates or generics based on program, coupon and vintage.

Bloomberg Non-Agency CMBS Index (Non-Agency CMBS) is the Non-Agency CMBS components of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, a market value-weighted index that tracks the daily price, coupon, pay-downs, and total return performance of fixed-rate, publicly placed, dollar-denominated, and non-convertible investment grade debt issues with at least $300 million par amount outstanding and with at least one year to final maturity.

“Bloomberg®” and the Bloomberg indexes are service marks of Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, including Bloomberg Index Services Limited (“BISL”), the administrator of the index (collectively, “Bloomberg”) and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by Brown Brothers Harriman & Co (BBH). Bloomberg is not affiliated with BBH, and Bloomberg does not approve, endorse, review, or recommend the BBH Structured Fixed Income Strategy. Bloomberg does not guarantee the timeliness, accurateness, or completeness of any data or information relating to the strategy.

The Indexes are not available for direct investment.

Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (“BBH”) may be used as a generic term to reference the company as a whole and/or its various subsidiaries generally. This material and any products or services may be issued or provided in multiple jurisdictions by duly authorized and regulated subsidiaries. This material is for general information and reference purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice and is not intended as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy securities, services or investment products. Any reference to tax matters is not intended to be used, and may not be used, for purposes of avoiding penalties under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, or other applicable tax regimes, or for promotion, marketing or recommendation to third parties. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed, and reliance should not be placed on the information presented. This material may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted, or any of the content disclosed to third parties, without the permission of BBH. All trademarks and service marks included are the property of BBH or their respective owners. © Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2022. All rights reserved.

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IM-11892-2022-10-25    Exp. Date 01/31/2023

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