Blue Monday

April 07, 2025
6 min read
  • Sell-off in risk assets deepens. Trump administration vows to stay the course on tariffs while the Fed is in no hurry to resume easing.
  • Japan underlying wage pressures slowed sharply in February. JPY continues to gain from save haven flows.
  • Bank of Israel and National Bank of Romania expected to keep policy rates on hold today.

Please see our Drivers for the Week for an in-depth look at what markets are facing this week.

 

You’re Invited

Webinar: Moving Markets: what's shaping Q2? Register Here

Join Win Thin and Elias Haddad as they discuss: EU integration/disintegration, a possible tipping point for US economic exceptionalism, and a “Mar-a-Lago Accord”

30 Minutes, Thursday April 10th | 7:00 AM PDT | 10:00 AM EST | 15:00 GMT | 16:00 CET

Blue Monday

Global stock markets remain under heavy downside pressure and bonds continue to rally. S&P 500 futures are down over 4% and is on course for its worst three-day selloff since the Black Monday crash of October 1987.

USD is mixed, underperforming mostly against the safe haven JPY and CHF while outperforming versus risk-sensitive currencies. The trade war is a major blow to the global economy and can further weigh on risk assets in the near-term. US President Donald Trump and his economic team insist they will not backdown on reciprocal tariffs which are due to take effect Wednesday.

Don’t expect the Fed to come to the rescue with an emergency rate cut. This is an entirely policy-driven market meltdown and there is no reason for the Fed to bail out financial markets. In fact, Fed Chair Jay Powell reiterated last Friday “we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance.” Powell also acknowledged that the economic effects of tariffs “will include higher inflation and slower growth.” Heightened risk the US falls into stagflation is not USD supportive.

Nonetheless, interest rate futures have ramped-up odds of Fed funds rate cuts in the last week. Fed funds futures are pricing-in almost 150bps of easing in the next twelve months while the probability of a 25bps cut at the next May 7 FOMC meeting increased to 55% from 20% before the tariff announcement.

Today, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on inflation dynamics (3:30pm London). Last week, Kugler stuck to the Fed’s “no hurry to resume easing” script noting “I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable.”

CANADA

USD/CAD is holding on to Friday’s gains. The severe negative impact of the US tariffs on the Canadian economy and lower crude oil prices do not bode well for CAD. Bank of Canada (BOC) Q1 business outlook survey will be reported today (3:30pm London). Initial results from recent BOC surveys indicated that trade uncertainty was already prompting businesses to revise down their sales outlooks. Many businesses also reported scaling back their investment plans and hiring intentions. Markets are pricing in 70% odds of a follow-up 25bps BOC policy rate cut at the next meeting April 16 and 75bps of total easing over the next 12 months.

JAPAN

Japan underlying wage pressures slowed sharply in February. The policy-relevant scheduled pay growth for full-time workers unexpectedly eased to a 16-month low at 1.9% y/y (consensus: 3.0%) vs. 3.0% in January. However, the slowdown may have partly been due the leap-year effect. Regardless, the swaps market no longer price-in material odds of additional Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hikes over the next 12 months. Despite this repricing, JPY continues to gain from save haven flows.

ISRAEL

Bank of Israel is expected to keep rates steady at 4.50% (2:00pm London). At the last meeting February 24, Bank of Israel kept rates steady at 4.50% and stated that “In view of the continuing war, the Monetary Committee’s policy is focused on stabilizing markets and reducing uncertainty, alongside price stability and supporting economic activity.”

The bank added that “The interest rate path will be determined in accordance with the convergence of inflation to its target, continued stability in the financial markets, economic activity, and fiscal policy.” The swaps market is pricing in steady rates over the next three months followed by 25bps of easing over the subsequent three months, followed by another 50bps over the subsequent six months.

ROMANIA

National Bank of Romania is expected to keep rates at 6.50%. At the last meeting February 14, the bank kept rates steady and Governor Isarescu warned against a rate cut as it “might sound like an invitation to weaken the currency.”

Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (“BBH”) may be used to reference the company as a whole and/or its various subsidiaries generally. This material and any products or services may be issued or provided in multiple jurisdictions by duly authorized and regulated subsidiaries.This material is for general information and reference purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice and is not intended as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy securities, services or investment products. Any reference to tax matters is not intended to be used, and may not be used, for purposes of avoiding penalties under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, or other applicable tax regimes, or for promotion, marketing or recommendation to third parties. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed, and reliance should not be placed on the information presented. This material may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted, or any of the content disclosed to third parties, without the permission of BBH. All trademarks and service marks included are the property of BBH or their respective owners.© Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2024. All rights reserved.

As of June 15, 2022 Internet Explorer 11 is not supported by BBH.com.

Important Information for Non-U.S. Residents

You are required to read the following important information, which, in conjunction with the Terms and Conditions, governs your use of this website. Your use of this website and its contents constitute your acceptance of this information and those Terms and Conditions. If you do not agree with this information and the Terms and Conditions, you should immediately cease use of this website. The contents of this website have not been prepared for the benefit of investors outside of the United States. This website is not intended as a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services for any investor who resides in a jurisdiction other than the United States1. As a general matter, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. and its subsidiaries (“BBH”) is not licensed or registered to solicit prospective investors and offer investment advisory services in jurisdictions outside of the United States. The information on this website is not intended to be distributed to, directed at or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the website.  Under certain circumstances, BBH may provide services to investors located outside of the United States in accordance with applicable law. The conditions under which such services may be provided will be analyzed on a case-by-case basis by BBH. BBH will only accept investors from such jurisdictions or countries where it has made a determination that such an arrangement or relationship is permissible under the laws of that jurisdiction or country. The existence of this website is not intended to be a substitute for the type of analysis described above and is not intended as a solicitation of or recommendation to any prospective investor, including those located outside of the United States. Certain BBH products or services may not be available in certain jurisdictions. By choosing to access this website from any location other than the United States, you accept full responsibility for compliance with all local laws. The website contains content that has been obtained from sources that BBH believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, BBH cannot guarantee the accuracy of such content, assure its completeness, or warrant that such information will not be changed. The content contained herein is current as of the date of issuance and is subject to change without notice. The website’s content does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. There is no guarantee that any investment objectives, expectations, targets described in this website or the  performance or profitability of any investment will be achieved. You understand that investing in securities and other financial instruments involves risks that may affect the value of the securities and may result in losses, including the potential loss of the principal invested, and you assume and are able to bear all such risks.  In no event shall BBH or any other affiliated party be liable for any direct, incidental, special, consequential, indirect, lost profits, loss of business or data, or punitive damages arising out of your use of this website. By clicking accept, you confirm that you accept  to the above Important Information along with Terms and Conditions.

 
1BBH sponsors UCITS Funds registered in Luxembourg, in certain jurisdictions. For information on those funds, please see bbhluxembourgfunds.com



captcha image

Type in the word seen on the picture

I am a current investor in another jurisdiction