US Large Cap Equity - Core Select Quarterly Strategy Update - Q4 2025

December 31, 2025
  • Capital Partners
Portfolio Manager, Scott Hill, provides an analysis of the investment environment and most recent quarter-end results of the BBH U.S. Large Cap Equity - Core Select strategy.
Highlights
  • During fourth quarter 2025, most portfolio companies in the Core Select Strategy (the Strategy) reported third quarter 2025 results and provided near- and longer-term guidance.

    o Overall results were mixed, with strong growth in earnings contrasting with downward revisions to expectations. The financial results of the portfolio companies in the Strategy were strong on an absolute basis and compared favorably to the benchmark S&P 500 Index (the Index).

    o We would characterize forward guidance by the portfolio companies in the Strategy as cautious near term and highly confident medium to longer term.

  • The absolute stock price-driven total returns of the Strategy have been solid, in line with expected economic profit growth and current income generation levels we model at normalized levels. On a total return basis, the Strategy increased 1.54% gross and 1.29% net of fee for the quarter, bringing the year-to-date return to 12.48% gross and 11.38% net. The Index increased 2.66% for the quarter and 17.88% for the year, reaching an all-time high.
  • We have experienced very different market dynamics in the last 18 months, characterized by periods of large-cap technology dominance and two separate and historic low-quality rallies that worked to bookend policy-induced growth and economic risk scares in the early part of this year. However, we took advantage of market volatility to engage in several rebalancing trades and initiated a position in a company whose fundamental characteristics are attractive on both an absolute and relative basis, operates in an industry structure that remains intact, and where the valuation was compelling.
  • We remain pleased with the year-to-date fundamental performance of the Strategy, continuing trends we have seen for some time. Fundamental performance driving economic value creation remains very favorable for the Fund on an absolute basis and relative to the Index, as does relative valuation, against a backdrop of very full absolute valuation level.

Market overview

We entered calendar year 2025 with a high degree of caution. The Index had just come off its second consecutive year of approximate 25% returns, while earnings and free cash flow per share growth were essentially flat over the two-year period. Valuations were full and expectations for earnings growth were high, both on an absolute basis and relative to near- and longer-term history, while internal market structure was undergoing a period of dramatic change.

While stock price volatility has been very significant, in the context of history we have seen far greater extremes. Shifts in sentiment have worked to benefit both ends of the quality and risk spectrum over time, but continued near-term enthusiasm for low-quality and profitless businesses has caused valuations to detach from underlying fundamentals, creating a frothy environment. While the shifts in sentiment have worked to benefit both ends of the quality and risk spectrum, the policy-induced growth and economic risk scare in the early part of this year rewarded quality companies and those that possess the highest levels of financial stability. But the very powerful low-quality rallies bookending that brief mid-February through early-April period have proven to be overwhelming in terms of what’s driving relative stock price returns in the U.S. large cap universe, at least during this relatively brief 18-month period.

With first quarter 2025 experiencing a decline of almost 5% and the threat of widespread tariffs dampening the growth outlook, the remainder of the year saw the Index increase ~23%. With price momentum and higher volatility companies powering the continued rise in market prices against a resilient, albeit cautionary, macro backdrop, we argue for maintaining patience until we observe a correction in either market prices or future expectations for growth.

Healthcare (+11.68%), communication services (+7.26%), and financials (+2.02%) performed best in the quarter, contributing almost 200 basis points (bps)1 to the market’s total return. Real estate (-2.86%), utilities (-1.40%), and consumer staples (+0.01%) were the worst performers. Healthcare and communication services were the only two sectors to beat the Index in the quarter, with the former benefiting from reduced uncertainty regarding U.S. pharmaceutical pricing and trade policies.

Strategy Commentary

Performance of the Index was heavily influenced by the outsized stock price performance of a small number of large index constituent companies, four of which we own in the Fund. Two separate rallies of low-quality and higher beta companies that are a poor fit with our investment criteria and companies we seek to avoid – both by the strategic design of our investment criteria and its diligent implementation – also played a significant role. This approach is part of our effort to produce durable absolute and relative returns over the long-term and fundamentally outperform during periods of economic or market stress.

The financial results of our portfolio companies were strong, with our recipe for economic value creation – reported returns on invested capital plus implied free cash flow per share growth – attractive on both an absolute and relative basis. Compared to the extreme uncertainty that accompanies the price other market participants are willing to pay for our portfolio companies and those we choose not to own, we feel more in control of the fundamental performance and superior valuation of our portfolio companies. Net earnings and free cash flow per share grew 11% and 10%, respectively, for the Strategy over the three-year trailing period vs. 7% and -2%, respectively, for the Index over the same time period.


Exhibit I: Table depicting net earnings, free cash flow, return on invested capital, and net debt/EBITDA over a three- and five-year period for the Fund vs. the Index. Net earnings and free cash flow per share grew 11% and 10%, respectively, for the Fund over the three-year trailing period vs. 7% and -2%, respectively, for the Index over the same time period.

To that end, our portfolio companies have executed well and have produced solid growth and fundamental economic performance while maintaining appropriately conservative capital structures. These achievements are evident at the aggregate portfolio level, where we have observed attractive growth in revenue, cash flow, and earnings; superior profit margins; returns on capital; and healthy balance sheets. While the Fund is more fully valued than we have historically observed given the strong equity markets we experienced over the past several years, the valuation remains supportive on an absolute basis and is attractive relative to the Index.

For the quarter, the Strategy’s largest detractor to total return was Oracle (ORCL).

ORCL was the largest detractor to performance, returning -30.6% for the quarter, which represented a 119-bp detraction from the Strategy’s total return. The decline in share price was largely a result of the company missing revenue and profit expectations, even though artificial intelligence (AI) cloud services grew 68%.

Furthermore, concerns were raised around both the timeline for completion and source of funding for AI data center growth, with capital expenditures increasingly being funded by taking on debt. On the technical side, short interest for Oracle has increased more than 30% since June. This is weighing on the share price, but Oracle remains a good candidate for hedge funds to express skepticism of the AI infrastructure build-out or OpenAI directly because of its high liquidity, low borrowing costs to short shares, and the large size of the company protects short sellers from a buyout. While we appreciate these risks, we continue to maintain a high level of conviction both in the business fundamentals as well as the company’s stock and see opportunity over a longer time horizon.

For the quarter, the Strategy’s largest contributor to total return was Alphabet (GOOG).

GOOG has been the top contributor for two successive quarters, returning +28.9% for the fourth quarter, which represented a 202-bp contribution to the Strategy’s total return. GOOG reported results that exceeded expectations on most key metrics and showcased improving execution along its AI initiatives. Strong performance in the Search segment helped to dispel concerns about potential disruption by generative AI-focused competitors. In addition, the Google Cloud segment continued to demonstrate accelerated usage and progress in gaining share relative to its hyperscaler competitors. From a product perspective, GOOG saw rapid uptake of its key AI offerings during the quarter, with continued momentum in their Gemini ecosystem.

Over any period, stock prices reflect the confluence of many factors as well as the perspectives of myriad other investors, both active and passive, that do not share our perspectives on risk, fundamental economic value creation, or how to properly measure it. Regardless of these other views, over the long term, we believe that it is a reasonable and an economically sound premise that the price of stocks should follow their growth in free cash flow per share and that attractive valuations support economic upside and mitigate risk. This will remain our focus as we seek to deliver both strong absolute and relative after-tax returns over the long term.

While this work will continue and is a constant focus of our analytical and portfolio management activities, we expect it to slow in the near term given the sharp recovery in market prices and still-elevated levels of policy-induced risk. While we remain focused on finding new investments that meet our investment criteria and are attractively valued, we do so in the context of a market environment we view as challenged, with risks evident on many fronts.

HOLDINGS (AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2025)

Holding

Sector

Weight

 

Holding

Sector

Weight

Alphabet Inc

Communication Services

7.8%

 

S&P Global Inc

Financials

1.8%

Microsoft Corp

Information Technology

6.9%

 

Linde PLC

Materials

1.8%

NVIDIA Corp

Information Technology

6.1%

 

Alcon AG

Health Care

1.7%

Apple Inc

Information Technology

5.9%

 

Johnson & Johnson

Health Care

1.7%

Amazon.com Inc

Consumer Discretionary

4.7%

 

Costco Wholesale Corp

Consumer Staples

1.6%

Applied Materials Inc

Information Technology

3.2%

 

Progressive Corp

Financials

1.6%

Visa Inc

Financials

3.1%

 

Abbott Laboratories

Health Care

1.5%

Waste Management Inc

Industrials

3.1%

 

Otis Worldwide Corp

Industrials

1.4%

KLA Corp

Information Technology

3.0%

 

ServiceNow Inc

Information Technology

1.4%

Mastercard Inc

Financials

2.9%

 

Texas Instruments Inc

Information Technology

1.4%

Oracle Corp

Information Technology

2.7%

 

Moody's Corp

Financials

1.4%

Cadence Design Systems Inc

Information Technology

2.4%

 

Procter & Gamble Co

Consumer Staples

1.4%

Automatic Data Processing Inc

Industrials

2.3%

 

Zoetis Inc

Health Care

1.4%

NIKE Inc

Consumer Discretionary

2.3%

 

Adobe Inc

Information Technology

1.3%

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc

Health Care

2.3%

 

Arthur J Gallagher & Co

Financials

1.2%

Walmart Inc

Consumer Staples

2.3%

 

Blackrock Inc

Financials

1.0%

McDonald's Corp

Consumer Discretionary

2.1%

 

Coca-Cola Co

Consumer Staples

0.7%

Analog Devices Inc

Information Technology

2.1%

 

Ecolab Inc

Materials

0.5%

Booking Holdings Inc

Consumer Discretionary

2.0%

 

Deere & Co

Industrials

0.5%

Berkshire Hathaway Inc

Financials

2.0%

 

Lockheed Martin Corp

Industrials

0.5%

Eli Lilly & Co

Health Care

1.9%

 

Novo Nordisk A/S

Health Care

0.3%

 

 

 

 

Cash and Cash Equivalents

 

3.2%

Holdings are subject to change.

Strategy Activity

During the period of recent market volatility and uncertainty, we have been acting with an aim to improve an already high-quality portfolio to one possessing higher expected levels of economic profit growth and better valuation support. Specifically, we have and will continue to trim and sell portfolio companies when valuations increase to levels we believe to be in excess of the range of reasonable economic outcomes implied by current stock prices. Conversely, we may add new portfolio companies that meet our investment criteria and may add to existing portfolio company positions when valuations are at levels we believe to be attractive to that same range of reasonable economic outcomes.

During the quarter, we made several portfolio rebalancing trades reflective of relative valuation opportunities, risk, and fit with our investment criteria. Turnover during the quarter was modest, at 3.0%. While low relative to recent activity, this represents the select opportunity with pockets of valuation support.

We trimmed positions in Otis, Oracle, KLA, Apple, Adobe, ServiceNow, Thermo Fisher, and Alphabet, based on strength in performance and to manage overall portfolio balance and weightings. We deployed some of proceeds into Nike, Cadence, Coca-Cola, Visa, Mastercard, Microsoft and Progressive, names that we have a high degree of conviction in, as well as where we felt like the share price performance provided valuation support.

Outlook

At the end of fourth quarter 2025, we held positions in 42 companies, with the 10 largest holdings accounting for 47% of total assets. As of October 1, 2025, the Fund was trading at ~94% of our underlying base estimate of intrinsic value, which compares to ~122% for the Index. We ended the quarter with a cash position of 3.2%.

In our view, momentum and high beta continue to drive market performance, at the expense of growth, quality, and positive fundamental factors. After making opportunistic adjustments, we remain focused on finding new investments and rebalancing existing portfolio companies in the context of a market environment we view as challenged.

Specifically, with a backdrop of decelerating economic growth, extreme policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk, and still-high market expectations relative to history, we remain focused and committed to investing in companies that meet our qualitative criteria, have the fundamental financial characteristics in place that allow for durability in times of economic and market stress, and offer valuation support.

To conclude, our portfolio companies have executed well and produced solid growth and fundamental economic performance while maintaining appropriately conservative capital structures. Given the near- and longer-term outlooks provided by the companies in the Fund, we are optimistic that these strong trends will continue and that the differentiated financial attributes will be better recognized by other investors in the future, improving the stock price performance of the Fund relative to the Index over time.

Thank you for your interest in the BBH U.S. Large Cap, Core Select Strategy. Please reach out if you have any questions.

 

 

Total Returns

Average annual total returns

Composite/benchmark

3 mo.

YTD

1 yr.

3 yr.

5 yr.

10 yr.

Since inception

BBH U.S. Large Cap Equity -
Core Select Composite (gross of fees)

1.54%

12.48%

12.48%

18.94%

11.49%

12.11%

10.91%

BBH U.S. Large Cap Equity -
Core Select Composite (net of fees)

1.29%

11.38%

11.38%

17.78%

10.39%

11.01%

9.82%

S&P 500 Total Return Index

2.66%

17.88%

17.88%

23.01%

14.42%

14.82%

10.97%

Inception date: 10/01/2005

Returns of less than one year are not annualized.

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged weighted index of 500 stocks providing a broad indicator of stock price movements. The composition of the index is materially different than the Fund’s holdings. The index is not available for direct investment.

Sources: BBH & Co. and S&P

BBH Large Cap Equity Team

 

One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%.

RISKS

Investors should be able to withstand short-term fluctuations in the equity markets and fixed income marketsin return for potentially higher returns over the long term. The value of portfolios changes every day and can beaffected by changes in interest rates, general market conditions and other political, social and economic developments.

The Strategy and may assume large positions in a small number of issuers which can increase the potential forgreater price fluctuation.

International investing involves special risks including currency risk, increased volatility, political risks, and differencesin auditing and other financial standards.

Gross of fee performance does not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees. Net of fees performanceresults reflect the deduction of the maximum investment advisory fees. Returns include all dividends and interest,other income, realized and unrealized gain, are net of all brokerage commissions and execution costs. Performancecalculated in U.S. dollars.

Portfolio Characteristics are of the Representative Account. The Representative Account is managed with the same investment objectives and employs substantially the same investment philosophy and processes as the strategy.

Contribution and other performance related information are presented gross of fees. See the performance table for the effect of investment advisory fees on returns.

References to specific securities, asset classes, and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be and should not be interpreted as recommendations.

The objective of the US Large Cap Equity-Core Select Strategy is to provide investors with long-term growth of capital and generate attractive returns over full economic cycles. The Strategy invest in a portfolio of approximately 25-35 companies with market capitalizations greater than $5 billion that are headquartered in North America, as well as in certain global firms located in other developed regions. There can be no assurance the Strategy will achieve its investment objectives.

Brown Brothers Harriman Investment Management (“IM”) claims compliance with the Global Investment PerformanceStandards (GIPS®). GIPS® is a registered trademark of CFA Institute. CFA Institute does not endorse orpromote this organization, nor does it warrant the accuracy or quality of the content contained herein. To receiveadditional information regarding IM, including a GIPS Composite Report for the strategy, contact John Ackler at 212-493-8247 or via email at john.ackler@bbh.com.

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