Good Times Roll

June 15, 2026

Elias Haddad

Peace dividend powers risk on rally. USD down across the board.

Second-tier US economic data in the pipeline today.

This week the spotlight shines on central banks led by the Fed. Check-out our Drivers for the Week Ahead for all the details.

You’re Invited! Thursday, June 18

Webinar: Fed watch: Warsh takes charge - Register Here

Join BBH's Scott Clemons and Elias Haddad as they unpack the June 17 FOMC decision, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, and the constraints that could disappoint markets expecting a more dovish Fed tilt.

Peace dividend powers risk on rally. The US and Iran agreed on memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz without charging fees for shipping for the duration of that period. A formal agreement is scheduled to be signed on Friday.

Brent crude oil prices slumped under $83/bbl, leaving them not far above their pre-war level of around $70/bbl. Global equity markets are surging with S&P500 futures melting up. Global bond yields continue to edge lower, and USD is down against all major currencies.

We are sticking to our view that USD can edge higher in the near-term. Resilient US economic activity in both absolute and relative terms outweigh the drag to USD from easing geopolitical fears. As of June 9, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimates above trend annualized US real GDP growth of 3.3% in Q2 vs. 1.6% in Q1 while the May PMI data points to a widening US growth edge over peers.

Second-tier US economic data in the pipeline today: June Empire manufacturing, May industrial production, and June NAHB housing market index.

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