Frontier Preview for the Week of July 13, 2025

July 13, 2025

Here's a look at the main drivers in Frontier Markets this week.

Frontier FX was mostly weaker last week as the dollar posted broad-based gains. BDT, VND, and CRC outperformed while UYU, KZT, and RSD underperformed. With little data last week, dollar strength carried over from the stronger than expected jobs report. This week brings major US data releases that are likely to underscore rising stagflation risks. On top of the data, expect more trade noise and threats to Fed independence, all of which make for a toxic brew for the greenback.

EUROPE/MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA

Nigeria reports June CPI data Tuesday. Headline is expected at 22.2% y/y vs. 23.0% in May. If so, it would be the third straight month of deceleration to the lowest since April 2023. At the last meeting May 20, the central bank kept rates steady at 27.5% for the second straight time. Next policy meeting is July 22. Since inflation remains elevated, another hold seems likely.

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