High food and energy prices continue to squeeze households globally. Aggressive monetary policy responses and shrinking real incomes have increased global recession risks. Indeed, more and more signs of recession are piling up.
For much of the first half of this year, high interest rates and rising commodity prices helped these currencies outperform their emerging market peers. However, broad-based dollar strength has slowly but surely eaten away at those EM FX gains and this is likely to continue as the Fed remains on its aggressive tightening path.
In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key risks driving global economies, including the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and the transition to a new administration in the U.S. We also provide our outlook on developed and emerging markets in Q1 2021.
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