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  • ""
    June 26, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    June 26, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    June 24, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields remain low as recession fears rise; the U.S. yield curve is flattening but nowhere near inverting; Fed Chair Powell broke no new ground in his testimony before the House; Mexico hiked rates 75 bp to 7.75%, as expected; June German IFO business climate came in soft; U.K. reported soft May retail sales; U.K. politics are heating up; Japan reported May national CPI readings
  • Glass jar with rolled-up euro bills
    June 23, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed Chair Powell finally acknowledged recession risks are building; Fed expectations are pretty much unchanged after Powell; yet U.S. yields are falling again as risk-off impulses build; Mexico is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 7.75%; eurozone reported weak preliminary June PMI readings; ECB tightening expectations have eased; Norway hiked rates 50 bp to 1.25%; Turkey kept rates steady at 14.0%, as expected; former head of FX policy at Japan’s Finance Ministry Takehiko Nakao said markets shouldn’t rule out unilateral intervention
  • ""
    June 22, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The recovery in U.S. yields has been halted by the return of risk-off impulses; Fed tightening expectations have fallen a bit; Powell delivers his semi-annual testimony before the Senate; Canada reports May CPI data; the ECB seems to be following a policy of strategic ambiguity regarding its planned crisis tool; Italy is back in the headlines due to rising political risks; U.K. reported May CPI data; South Africa reported May CPI; Czech National Bank is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 6.75%; the BOJ minutes are worth discussing;
  • ""
    June 21, 2022
    • Investor Services
    With recession fears rising, May Chicago Fed NAI takes center stage; housing data will remain in focus as weakness in that sector persists; Canada reports April retail sales; Brazil COPOM minutes will be released; ECB President Lagarde affirmed liftoff next month; Chief Economist Pill said the BOE is prepared to sacrifice growth in order to bring down inflation; RBA released the findings of its review of YCC; Korea reported trade data for the first 20 days of June
  • ""
    June 19, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    June 19, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Ten thousand Japanese Yen banknotes on wood table
    June 17, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are stabilizing; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; the euro has recovered on reports that the ECB anti-crisis tool is starting to take shape; BOE Chief Economist Pill identified some triggers that would require more forceful action; BOJ kept all policy settings unchanged, as expected; stresses in the JGB market are rising
  • Bank of England with UK flag, The historical building in London, UK
    June 16, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The Fed hiked rates 75 bp, as expected; Fed tightening expectations have picked up significantly; U.S. yields have recovered; BOE hiked rates 25 bp to 1.25%, as expected; the ECB emergency meeting yielded nothing but disappointment; SNB surprised markets with a 50 bp hike to -0.25% and signaled a shift in its FX intervention policy; BOJ began its two-day meeting today and is expected to keep all policy settings unchanged when it ends tomorrow
  • Federal Reserve Cloudy Day
    June 15, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The two-day FOMC ends today with a rate hike; new macro forecasts and Dot Plots will be released; we also note that QT announced at the May 3-4 FOMC meeting starts today; May retail sales will be reported ahead of the FOMC decision; Brazil COPOM is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 13.25%; the euro is higher after the ECB announced an emergency meeting today in response to growing concerns about fragmentation; we are shocked that the ECB wasn’t better prepared for the fallout
  • ""
    June 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields continue to rise; the rise in short-end U.S. yields reflects significantly higher Fed tightening expectations; portions of the U.S. yield curve have inverted again; monthly U.K. data dump started out very weak; Brexit remains in the headlines; we think the rising risks of fragmentation are a major factor behind subsequent euro weakness; BOJ bought JGBs to defend its Yield Curve Control target; China is reimposing some COVID restrictions as virus numbers rise
  • ""
    June 12, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    June 12, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Glass jar with rolled-up euro bills
    June 10, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields continue to rise; the rise in short-end U.S. yields reflects heightened Fed tightening expectations; May CPI data will be the main event; Canada highlight will be May jobs data; ECB kept rates steady but flagged a 25 bp hike in July; ECB tightening expectations have picked up; ECB simply did not seem overly concerned about the risks of rising peripheral yields; Brexit appears to be coming to a head once again; Japan officials have renewed their warnings about the weak yen
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    June 09, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Rates are moving in favor of the dollar; the rise in short-end U.S. yields reflects heightened Fed tightening expectations; the ECB is widely expected to keep rates steady whilst setting the table for July liftoff; the ECB could announce some details of a new emergency bond-buying program; Japan reported solid May machine tool orders; the RBNZ laid out details for planned QT; China reported firm May trade data
  • Yen Coins and Bills
    June 08, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are moving higher; consumer credit continues to surge; reports suggest Michael Barr’s confirmation as Fed Vice Chair for supervision will be smooth sailing; reports suggest the U.K. is pressing ahead with plans to unilaterally rewrite parts of the Brexit accord; ECB tightening expectations have picked up ahead of tomorrow’s decision; Germany reported weak April IP; Japan reported final Q1 GDP data; India hiked rates 50 bp to 4.90%, as expected; Thailand delivered a hawkish hold
  • ""
    June 07, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are moving higher; Chile is expected to hike rates from 8.25% currently; U.K. Prime Minister Johnson survived the no confidence vote; reports suggest ECB policymakers remain very concerned about peripheral spreads; Germany reported very weak data; Turkey President Erdogan is showing no inclination to let the central bank hike rates; Japan reported weak April household spending and cash earnings data; RBA delivered a hawkish surprise with a 50 bp hike to 0.85% vs. 25 bp expected
  • Houses of Parliament and Big Ben at sunset, London, UK
    June 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Data last week confirmed our view that concerns about a U.S. recession are overdone; U.S. yields are moving higher as a result; the Fed is likely to remain on its aggressive tightening path; U.K. Prime Minister Johnson will face a no confidence vote tonight; reports suggest the ECB will firm up plans for a new bond-buying program this week; the BOJ shows no signs of pivoting from its current ultra-loose policies
  • ""
    June 05, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    June 03, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets are marking time ahead of the U.S. jobs data; Fed Vice Chair Brainard remains hawkish; eurozone reported weak April retail sales; the ECB meets next week with an uncertain economic backdrop; Turkey reported May CPI and PPI data; Japan Prime Minister Kishida signaled steady policy ahead; incoming Australia Prime Minister Albanese is setting the table for higher wages; Korea reported May CPI
  • Silhouettes of Oil Pumps in Oil Field at Sunset
    June 02, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Data so far this week have helped dispel some of the U.S. recession fears; ADP private sector jobs data will be today’s data highlight; Bank of Canada hiked rates 50 bp to 1.50%, as expected; eurozone reported April PPI; the public ECB policy debate continues; Switzerland reported May CPI; Saudi Arabia is prepared to boost its oil output to make up for any sanctions-related loss from Russia
  • ""
    June 01, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields continue to recover; May ISM manufacturing PMI will be today’s data highlight; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the June 14-15 FOMC meeting; BOC is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.50%; Banco de Mexico releases its quarterly inflation report; ECB tightening expectations are rising; Germany reported weak April retail sales data; BOJ remains ultra-dovish;
  • Colorful stacked oil drums
    May 31, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are recovering as inflation concerns rise; Fed officials remain hawkish; ahead of the jobs report, important survey data will be reported; eurozone May CPI data continue to worsen; the public ECB policy debate is likely to continue; Japan reported mixed data; China reported firm official May PMI readings; oil prices are rallying after the EU reached a compromise to ban most Russian crude
  • ""
    May 29, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    May 29, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    May 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates markets are pricing in increasing odds of a U.S. recession; April core PCE will be the U.S. data highlight; the U.S. housing sector is softening and that's what rate hikes are supposed to do; Banco de Mexico minutes were hawkish; Chancellor Sunak bowed to pressure and announced an aid package for U.K. households; Japan reported softer May Tokyo CPI data
  • ""
    May 25, 2022
    • Investor Services
    FOMC minutes will be released; flash May PMI and Richmond Fed readings were softer than expected; Brazil mid-May IPCA inflation came in higher than expected at 12.20% y/y; Deputy Governor Heath said Banxico may need to hike another 2-3 percentage points; the U.S. has likely to pushed Russia into default; the ECB sounded some warnings in its twice-yearly Financial Stability Review; more ECB officials are lining up behind President Lagarde
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    May 24, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields have fallen sharply from the early May peaks; regional Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; Mexico reports mid-May CPI; Brazil reports mid-May IPCA inflation; reports suggest some ECB hawks were unhappy with President Lagarde’s forward guidance yesterday; Lagarde pushed back today; eurozone reported solid preliminary May PMI readings; U.K. reported weak preliminary May PMI readings; Russia eased key capital controls as the ruble continues to gain
  • Glass jar with rolled-up euro bills
    May 23, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Short-term rates continue to move against the dollar; we continue to believe that U.S. recession fears are overblown; ECB President Lagarde is validating recent hawkish comments from her colleagues; Israel is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.60%; President Biden announced the creation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework; Biden also said he will review existing tariffs on Chinese imports;
  • ""
    May 22, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    May 22, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • ""
    May 20, 2022
    • Investor Services
    We believe much of this week’s price action was driven by a short squeeze for the foreign currencies; we note more observers are getting concerned about U.S. recession risks; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May have so far been weak; U.K. reported better than expected April retail sales; U.K. GfK consumer confidence came in weaker than expected; BOE Chief Economist Pill sounded hawkish
  • US Dollar on financial screen
    May 19, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed officials remain hawkish; U.S. rates market is reflecting concerns about the economy; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May will continue rolling out; ECB releases its account of the April meeting
  • Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
    May 18, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Chair Powell said the Fed will continue hiking until inflation comes down; Fed tightening expectations picked up a bit; April retail sales data support our view that the U.S. economic outlook remains solid; U.S. yields are moving higher in response to the strong data and hawkish Powell comments; Canada highlight will be April CPI data; U.K. reported April CPI data
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    May 16, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are edging higher as risk off sentiment ebbs; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for May will start rolling out; the EC cut its growth forecasts for the eurozone; BOE officials will take questions from the Treasury Select Committee; HKD continues to trade at the weak end of its trading band; China reported weak April IP and retail sales data; new BOK Governor Rhee said he cannot rule out a 50 bp rate move
  • Upward trending line on green LED screen
    May 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed Chair Powell helped boost sentiment yesterday by downplaying risks of a 75 bp move; U.S. data calendar is light; the heavy slate of UST issuance ended on a strong note; Mexico hiked rates 50 bp to 7.0%, as expected, but hinted at larger moves ahead; reports suggest PM Minister Johnson has ordered his government to slash U.K. civil service jobs in order to offset possible tax cuts;
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    May 12, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The Hong Kong dollar is trading at the weak end of its trading band, leading the HKMA to intervene today for the first time since early 2019. While we see no threat to the peg, ongoing weakness in the mainland China economy is likely to keep HKD weak for the foreseeable future. This in turn will put downward pressure on the Hong Kong economy.
  • ""
    May 12, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are lower as risk off sentiment takes hold; April U.S. PPI data now takes center stage; Fed officials remain hawkish; the heavy slate of UST issuance concludes; both Mexico and Peru are expected to hike rates 50 bp; more ECB officials are on board with July liftoff; yet ECB tightening expectations remain subdued; U.K. monthly data dump was weaker than expected
  • Various blue and orange business trend graphs and charts on black screen
    May 11, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Market expectations for Fed tightening have cooled a bit; April U.S. CPI data takes center stage; the heavy slate of UST issuance continues; Brazil reports April IPCA inflation; ECB President Lagarde all but signed off on July liftoff; Brexit is back in the headlines; CZK is underperforming due to concerns about monetary policy; sentiment during the Asian session recovered as China’s virus numbers improved
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    May 10, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The rise in U.S. yields has stalled out; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers will spread the word this week; there is a heavy slate of UST issuance due to the quarterly refunding; German ZEW survey for May was mixed; BOE’s Saunders continues to push for front-loading its tightening cycle; BOJ is showing no signs of abandoning YCC; the Fed highlighted crypto risks in its most recent financial stability report
  • ""
    May 09, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields continue to rise; with the FOMC meeting out of the way, Fed speakers will spread the word this week; Mexico reports April CPI; ECB officials continue to sound hawkish; ECB tightening expectations have picked up modestly; one unfortunate by-product of ECB hawkishness is rising peripheral spreads
  • ""
    May 08, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    May 08, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    May 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets continue to reprice the Fed; U.S. yields are rising again; April jobs data will be the highlight; Canada also reports April jobs data; Chile delivered a hawkish surprise yesterday; markets are still digesting the BOE’s disastrous decision; updated macro forecasts contained the worst of all worlds; ECB officials continue to tilt hawkish;
  • Bank of England with UK flag, The historical building in London, UK
    May 05, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The Fed hiked rates 50 bp, as expected; more aggressive market pricing for rate hikes suggests the initial dovish take on Powell was wrong; U.S. yields are rising again; Chile is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 8.0%; BOE hiked rates 25 bp to 1.0%, as expected; eurozone data came in weak; Norges Bank kept rates steady at 0.75%, as expected; Czech Republic is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 5.5%; Poland is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 5.5%; Caixin reported weak April China services and composite PMI readings
  • White upward moving trend line with blue background
    May 02, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are rising again; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; April ISM manufacturing PMI will be the highlight; ECB tightening expectations remain subdued; eurozone reported mixed data; Japan reported some minor data overnight
  • ""
    May 01, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    May 01, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    April 29, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are edging higher as risk-off impulses ease; higher U.S. rates and periodic bouts of risk-off impulses are only part of the strong dollar narrative; March core PCE reading will be important; we believe the Q1 GDP reading was a quirk that will not impact Fed policy; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; Colombia is expected to hike rates 100 bp to 6.0%; eurozone inflation may be topping out
  • Ten thousand Japanese Yen banknotes on wood table
    April 28, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are edging higher as risk-off impulses ease; Fed tightening expectations remain robust; Germany said its companies will continue to pay for Russian gas in euros or dollars; Germany cut its 2022 growth forecast to 2.2% from 3.6% seen in January; eurozone April inflation readings have started to trickle out; ECB tightening expectations have fallen significantly; Riksbank delivered a surprise 25 bp rate hike; BOJ meeting ended with a dovish hold; updated macro forecasts suggest no tightening until FY25;
  • male hand squeezes a sponge for washing with water and drops fall down concept on a light blue background
    April 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key factors driving global economies.
  • Blue glowing arrows pointing diagonally up
    April 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are edging higher as risk-off impulses ease; DXY traded today at a new cycle high near 102.777; Fed tightening expectations remain robust; President Biden’s Fed nominations are falling into place; Brazil reports mid-April IPCA inflation; Russia announced it would halt natural gas flows to Poland and Bulgaria; eurozone consumer confidence measures continue to crumble
  • ""
    April 26, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are edging lower as risk-off impulses linger; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; ECB hawks remain vocal
  • ""
    April 24, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • British pounds sterling bills and coins
    April 22, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are rising again; Fed Chair Powell added to the hawkish Fed chorus; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; S&P Global (formerly Markit) preliminary April PMI readings will be the highlight; Canada highlight is February retail sales data; ECB President Lagarde offered a more nuanced view of the state of affairs than the hawks; U.K. reported weak March retail sales data
  • Scattered Euro bank notes
    April 21, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are starting to rise again; Fed Beige Book set the table for a 50 bp hike at the May 3-4 FOMC meeting; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April will continue to roll out; Canada March CPI data came in hot; more ECB officials are tilting hawkish
  • Japanese Yen and green up-arrow  on screen_cover
    April 20, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields have reversed lower today in what seems like a corrective phase across the rates markets; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the upcoming May 3-4 FOMC meeting; some Fed officials are sounding a bit more cautious; Canada highlight is March CPI data; ECB hawks continue to undermine Madame Lagarde’s message; BOJ reiterated its commitment to Yield Curve Control in response to rising yields
  • Various Japanese Yen bank notes
    April 19, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Inflation data and a hawkish Fed are keeping upward pressure on U.S. yields; Fed officials remain hawkish; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; ECB tightening expectations continue to adjust after the meeting; recent verbal intervention has done nothing for the yen
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    April 18, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Inflation data and a hawkish Fed are keeping upward pressure on U.S. yields; Fed tightening expectations remain relatively robust; markets are still digesting the dovish surprise from the ECB last week; ECB hawks continue to undermine Lagarde; official concern with the weak yen is intensifying
  • ""
    April 17, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    April 17, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Rolled up bank-notes from various countries
    April 15, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates have resumed their move higher; Fed officials remain hawkish; the Fed’s pivot to limiting demand is noteworthy; retail sales data are worth discussing; despite the holiday, some U.S. data will be reported; ECB delivered a dovish surprise
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    April 14, 2022
    • Investor Services
    March PPI data suggests price pressures are far from topping out; yet bonds continued to rally after the PPI data; Fed tightening expectations have fallen despite the inflation data; retail sales data will be important; BOC held a press conference and an FOMC meeting broke out; ECB is expected to keep policy steady but beware of a hawkish tilt
  • Floating blue currency symbols on black background
    April 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed officials remain hawkish; we think many are coming around to the notion that the Fed has to move into restrictive policy; March PPI will be reported; bonds rallied after the CPI data; bull steepening should continue near-term; Canada is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 1.0%; Chile central bank minutes will be released; U.K. March CPI data came in hot;
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    April 12, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to move higher; Fed officials remain hawkish; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; March CPI data will be reported; Brazil central bank President Roberto Campos Neto said he was surprised by recent inflation data; German April ZEW survey came in slightly better than expected
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    April 11, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to move higher; Fed officials are likely to remain hawkish; France held its presidential election Sunday; U.K. began its monthly data dump on a soft note
  • ""
    April 10, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    April 10, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    April 08, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed officials remain hawkish; U.S. yields continue moving in the dollar’s favor; Canada reports March jobs data; BOC tightening expectations are running hot; Chile reports March CPI; Brazil reports March IPCA inflation; account of the March ECB meeting tiled hawkish; ECB tightening expectations remain heightened; Russia delivered a surprise 300 bp rate cut to 17.0%.
  • ""
    April 07, 2022
    • Investor Services
    FOMC minutes tilted hawkish, as expected; the 2- to 10-year curve is no longer inverted; Mexico reports March CPI; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 4.5%; ECB minutes will be a major highlight;
  • Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
    April 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Hawkish Fed comments continue to roil the rates markets; Fed tightening expectations remain heightened; U.S. yields continue moving in the dollar’s favor; the 2- to 10-year curve is no longer inverted; FOMC minutes will be released; as we warned yesterday, default risk has risen for Russia
  • ""
    April 05, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields continue moving in the dollar’s favor; the U.S. 2- to 10-year curve remains inverted; March ISM services PMI is the main highlight; default risk has risen after the Treasury Department banned Russia from making any debt payments through U.S. banks
  • Arrows, lines, and dots moving upwards in blue
    April 04, 2022
    • Investor Services
    This is a very quiet week for the U.S. in terms of data; U.S. yields have resumed moving in the dollar’s favor; another portion of the U.S. yield curve has inverted; Colombia central bank minutes will be released; ECB tightening expectations remain heightened after last week’s CPI shocker
  • ""
    April 03, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Financial stock market trading graphs on screen in blue and red
    April 01, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates are on the rise again; March jobs data will be the highlight; ISM manufacturing PMI will be reported after the jobs data; Gazprom has sent new payment order to its customers with new payment requirements; eurozone CPI came in much higher than expected;
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    March 31, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Some risk-off sentiment is creeping back into the markets; February core PCE will be very important; March Chicago PMI will be closely watched; Canada January GDP will be reported; Colombia is expected to hike rates 150 bp to 5.5%; key eurozone CPI data continue to emerge; meanwhile, the real sector data remain weak
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    March 30, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The relentless rise in U.S. rates is taking a pause; another portion of the U.S. yield curve inverted briefly yesterday; ADP private sector jobs data will be the reported; Chile delivered a dovish surprise; some positive headlines regarding Ukraine have helped boost market sentiment; key eurozone CPI readings are starting to emerge; ECB tightening expectations have picked up further
  • Scattered Euro bank notes
    March 29, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to move in the dollar’s favor; demand weakened for the first leg of Treasury’s heavy coupon issuance this week; portions of the U.S. yield curve remain inverted; Chile is expected to hike rates 175 bp to 7.25%; ECB officials continue to tilt hawkish; ECB tightening expectations have picked up further
  • ""
    March 28, 2022
    • Investor Services
    A portion of the US yield curve has inverted. While this is not the typical 3-month to 10-year inversion that presages a recession, markets are nevertheless on heightened alert. This piece will discuss the predictive power of an inverted yield curve and will show why we are not yet concerned that one will materialize.
  • Yen Coins and Bills
    March 28, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The selloff in global bond markets continues; this is a big data week for the U.S. and yet the readings are unlikely to have much impact on markets or policy; U.S. rates continue to move in the dollar’s favor; BOJ underscored its dovishness by defending its Yield Curve Control target; the yen weakened sharply as a result; officials gave the first inkling of concern about yen weakness
  • ""
    March 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • ""
    March 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Descending graph with large USD symbol above it
    March 25, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed officials are clearly open to a 50 bp hike at the May 3-4 meeting; manufacturing data have come in largely firmer in March; weekly jobless claims point to a tight labor market; Brazil reports mid-March IPCA inflation; German IFO business climate survey came in soft; U.K. reported weak February retail sales
  • Glowing blue arrow sloping upwards
    March 24, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed messaging remains hawkish; market pricing for Fed tightening continues to adjust as one would expect; Mexico is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 6.5%; preliminary eurozone and U.K. March PMI readings were reported; Chancellor Sunak offered no surprises in his budget statement; Norges Bank hiked rates 25 bp to 0.75%, as expected; SNB kept rates steady at -0.75%, as expected; SARB is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 4.25%.
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    March 23, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed messaging remains as hawkish as ever; it wasn’t just Bullard, as Daly added to the hawkish chorus; market pricing for Fed tightening continues to adjust as one would expect; parts of the U.S. yield curve continue to flirt with inversion; U.K. Chancellor Sunak gives his budget statement shortly; U.K. reported higher than expected February CPI data; Hungary hiked the base rate 100 bp to 4.4% and signaled a longer cycle ahead
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    March 21, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Market pricing for Fed tightening continues to adjust after last week’s hawkish FOMC; U.S. rates continue to move in the dollar’s favor; ECB President Lagarde downplayed recession risks; Egypt’s central bank hiked rates unexpectedly
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    March 20, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    March 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    March 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    March 11, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to move higher; inflation data will remain in focus for the U.S.; the Fed is on track to start the tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike next week; the 30-year auction ended this week’s coupon issuance on a strong note; Canada reports February jobs data; Brazil reported February IPCA inflation; ECB delivered a hawkish hold; however, the bank dropped its pledge to end APP “shortly” before rates rise;
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    March 10, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Recent moves in 2-year yield differentials are mixed for the dollar; the Fed is on track to start the tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike next week; inflation data will come into focus for the U.S.; the heavy auction schedule for U.S. Treasury coupon paper concludes; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 4.0%; market sentiment has turned sour again after a Ukraine-Russia summit yielded no progress; ECB decision is due out shortly
  • Upward trending line on green LED screen
    March 09, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Market sentiment has improved modestly on some positive Ukraine headlines; yield differentials continue to favor the dollar; the heavy auction schedule for U.S. Treasury coupon paper continues; Mexico reports February CPI; the euro is enjoying a little bounce ahead of the ECB decision; we expect the ECB to deliver a balanced message tomorrow
  • The flags of the European Union at the European Commission's headquarters.
    March 08, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are higher as market sentiment improves; there is a heavy auction schedule for U.S. Treasury coupon paper this week; the market is starting to price in more Fed tightening; EU is working on a plan to issue joint debt to finance energy and defense spending
  • Colorful stacked oil drums
    March 07, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Risk-off sentiment remains in place as the new week begins; despite the Ukraine crisis, the Fed will begin hiking rates; German y reported firm January retail sales and factory orders
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    March 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    March 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Downward trending line on red LED screen
    March 04, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The week is ending on a risk-off note as the Ukraine crisis escalates; the jobs report has become a side show; Fed Chair Powell and other Fed officials continue to look through the Ukraine crisis; we still believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; Colombia reports February CPI data Saturday; the Ukraine crisis has entered a new phase as Russian shelling ignited a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; eurozone data came in weaker than expected today; data this week sharply underscore the dilemma facing the ECB when it meets next Thursday; CEE central banks are taking measures to support their plunging currencies
  • Stacked blue oil drums
    March 03, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed Chair Powell is the latest Fed official to look through the Ukraine crisis; we believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; ISM services PMI will be the data highlight; the Fed released its Beige Book report for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting; BOC hiked rates 25 bp to 0.50%, as expected; MSCI and FTSE Russell are both cutting Russia from their major equity indexes; Moody’s and Fitch both cut their sovereign rating for Russia two full steps; eurozone reported January PPI
  • Close-up of folded dollar-bills
    March 02, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields remain depressed as risk-off impulses continue; the euro is likely to continue weakening; ADP private sector employment will be the data highlight; the Fed releases its Beige Book report for the March 15-16 FOMC meeting; we believe the Fed will hike rate 25 bp; BOC is expected to hike rates 25 bp to 0.50%; February eurozone CPI continues to run even hotter; ECB policy is getting more complicated; China may play a large role in ending the Ukraine crisis; oil prices are trading at new highs due to a variety of factors
  • A pile of Euro symbols
    March 01, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets are back to risk off mode as Putin ramps up his attack on Ukraine; ISM manufacturing PMI is expected at 58.0 vs. 57.6 in January; more Fed officials are looking through the Ukraine crisis; we still believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; Canada reports Q4 GDP data; Russian forces continue to bear down on Kyiv despite the crippling sanctions response from the West; Russia banned all residents from transferring foreign currency abroad; Germany and Italy report February CPI
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    February 28, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets are back to risk off mode after ending last week on a decidedly risk-on note; Chicago PMI will be the data highlight; Fed officials continue to look through the Ukraine crisis; we believe the Fed hikes 25 bp at the March 15-16 FOMC; ECB warned that Sberbank's fully-owned subsidiary Sberbank Europe AG is likely to fail; Russia central bank hiked rates to 20% in an effort to support the ruble
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    February 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    February 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • European Union member states flags one next to another
    February 25, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. officials continue to debate potential ejection of Russia from Swift; the Western allies are focused on cutting off Russia’s access to technology; U.S. yields are edging higher; core PCE deflator will be the key focal point for U.S. data; Fed officials are trying to look through the Ukraine crisis; as things stand, we think the Fed goes ahead with a 25 bp hike March 16; data yesterday suggest the U.S. economy is entering the Ukraine crisis in good shape; noted ECB hawk Holzmann is hedging his bets a bit
  • Oil pumping unit in sun
    February 24, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields have collapsed after Russia invaded Ukraine; it will be very important to see how Fed officials view this current situation where there are even more upside inflation risks; Fed tightening expectations have fallen a bit; President Biden will have no choice but to expand sanctions against Russia once again; Mexico reports mid-February CPI; Putin is clearly aiming for regime change; BOE officials are pushing back against aggressive tightening expectations
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    February 23, 2022
    • Investor Services
    President Biden announced a new round of sanctions on Russian entities; Canada also announced sanctions; a diplomatic solution appears far off; U.S. yields are creeping higher despite ongoing Russian tensions; Brazil reports mid-February IPCA inflation; European nations also responded with sanctions on Russia
  • Black Oil Barrels Close Together
    February 22, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. yields are likely to remain depressed as Russian tensions persist; Fed tightening expectations have fallen a bit; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for February will continue to roll out; Russia President Putin signed a decree recognizing the two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine; the West is already moving to punish Russia
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    February 20, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
  • Glass jar with rolled-up euro bills
    February 18, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. bond yields remain depressed from ongoing risk off impulses; Fed officials remain hawkish; Canada reports December retail sales; scheduled talks between the U.S. and Russia have help market sentiment stabilize; ECB hawks remain vocal; U.K. reported firm January retail sales data; Sweden reported January CPI data
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    February 17, 2022
    • Investor Services
    FOMC minutes contained nothing surprising; we must stress that a lot has happened since the January 25-26 meeting; January retail sales and IP data came in strong; regional Fed manufacturing surveys will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be of interest; the situation in Ukraine remains tense as Russia’s claim to withdraw troops is being challenged; ECB hawks continue to get louder; Turkey kept rates steady at 14.0%, as expected
  • Various types of purple and blue financial graphs in front of global map
    February 16, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Risk is back on due to positive Russia headlines; FOMC minutes will be released; January PPI data came in hot; January retail sales data will be important; January IP will also be reported; Canada reports January CPI; Russia announced some troops are returning to base; eurozone reported firm December IP; ECB officials continue to tilt more hawkish
  • The EU flag printed on a textured fabric
    February 15, 2022
    • Investor Services
    St. Louis Fed Governor Bullard moved markets again; Bullard stuck to his well-worn script; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; U.S. inflation data will remain in focus with January PPI; regional Fed manufacturing surveys will start rolling out; Russia seems to be saying give peace a chance; Germany February ZEW survey came in weaker than expected; U.K. reported labor market data
  • A pile of Euro symbols
    February 14, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates remain depressed on safe haven demand; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; the economic impact of the Canadian trucker protests is likely to be limited; German Chancellor Scholz travels to Ukraine today while en route to Russia; there is no easy policy solution to stagflation; Europe would clearly be impacted the most by Russian hostilities;
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    February 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    February 13, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Facade on the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
    February 11, 2022
    • Investor Services
    St. Louis Fed President Bullard quickly changed the narrative yesterday; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; U.S. rates continue to rise; Bullard spoke after January CPI data came in higher than expected; heavy issuance of coupon debt this week has concluded; Mexico hiked rates 50 bp to 6.0%, as expected; ECB Chief Economist Lane defended the view that eurozone inflation will ease without aggressive policy tightening; ECB tightening expectations remain elevated; U.K. monthly data dump showed a modest slowdown was under way as the year ended
  • Orange Financial Graph on Black Background
    February 10, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates market is in a holding pattern ahead of CPI data; heavy issuance of coupon debt concludes; Fed speakers remain hawkish; Boston Fed has chosen Susan Collins to be its next President; BOC signaled rates may have go above neutral; Mexico is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 6.0%; Peru is expected to hike rates 50 bp to 3.5%; reports suggest more ECB officials distrust its own inflation forecasts; speaking of forecasts, the EC just released its latest; BOE is trying to manage market expectations; Riksbank delivered a dovish hold; BOJ announced an unlimited bond-buying operation to defend YCC;
  • U.S. Dollars and hourglass
    February 09, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S rates are taking a breather and that’s weighing on the dollar; a heavy week of coupon issuance continues; a handful of Fed speakers are scheduled; Mexico reports January CPI; Brazil reports January IPCA inflation; eurozone data remain mixed; U.K. National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned of rising recession risks; Bank of Japan remains ultra-dovish
  • Upward trending graph line moving up on a blue staircase
    February 08, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to march higher; Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; there will be heavy issuance of U.S. coupon debt this week; ECB is attempting damage control but the fissures are widening; its hawkish hold has pushed market tightening expectations higher
  • Floating blue currency symbols on black background
    February 07, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed tightening expectations remain elevated; U.S. rates should continue to move higher; Germany reported weak December IP data; the ECB ‘s hawkish hold has pushed market tightening expectations even higher; BOE tightening expectations have also risen; speculation of an emergency BOJ bond-buying operation is growing as JGB yields continue to climb
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    February 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    February 06, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Euro-Symbol Statue in Frankfurt
    February 04, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The hawkish Fed narrative has been pushed to the back burner by the ECB and BOE; highlight today is the jobs report; Canada also reports January jobs; Colombia reports January CPI Saturday; ECB delivered a hawkish hold; markets have reacted accordingly; eurozone data were mixed today; BOE hiked rates 25 bp to 0.50%, as expected; BOE tightening expectations have adjusted even higher; U.K. politics are heating up
  • The E.U. flag, Euro bank-note, and map of Britain overlapping each other to illustrate Brexit
    February 02, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Fed officials continue to hew to the hawkish message; at the same time, U.S. officials are doing some damage control ahead of the jobs data; ADP private sector jobs estimate will be the highlight; Brazil is expected to hike rates 150 bp to 10.75%; eurozone January CPI ran hotter than expected; data will make for a lively ECB meeting tomorrow; expectations for 2022 ECB liftoff continue to move higher
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    February 01, 2022
    • Investor Services
    After last week’s surge, U.S. rates are drifting lower; ISM manufacturing PMI will be the data highlight; Peru politics remain unsettled; it seems that “Partygate” was not limited to just a few gatherings; elsewhere, the U.K. data remain firm; France reported higher than expected January CPI
  • U.S. $100 banknotes closeup.
    January 31, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets are still digesting the Fed’s hawkish hold; Fed officials continue to hew to the hawkish message; key January survey data will help fill out the U.S. economic picture; reports suggest that the West will focus on tougher sanctions against Putin’s inner circle if Russia were to attack Ukraine; Spain and Germany report January CPI data; more eurozone Q4 GDP readings came out
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    January 30, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.
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    January 30, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Emerging Markets this week.
  • Various arrows pointing upwards with green and blue dots
    January 28, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. rates continue to rise and that’s helping the greenback; it is becoming clearer and clearer just how big a factor the easy money policy response globally was for Emerging Markets; we got our first look at Q1 GDP and it was a good look; December core PCE data will hold some interest; Colombia is expected to hike rates 75 bp to 3.75%; eurozone countries reported a slew of data; Q4 GDP data for France, Germany, and Spain were mixed; ECB meets next Thursday and we expect a dovish hold
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    January 27, 2022
    • Investor Services
    The Fed delivered a hawkish hold, as we expected; Chair Powell pretty much killed any notion of a Powell Put; U.S. rates market reacted as one would expect; these moves in rates support our strong dollar call; we get our first look at Q1 GDP; BOC delivered a hawkish hold, as we expected; on a day of hawkish central bank surprises, Chile delivered the biggest one of all; tensions between the West and Russia remain high
  • Tile for FXQ1 2022: Global Liquidity Taps are Closing
    January 26, 2022
    • Investor Services
    In the latest FX Quarterly, our strategists highlight the key factors driving global economies.
  • Federal Reserve Cloudy Day
    January 26, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets are slowly stabilizing even as Russia-Ukraine tensions remain high; two-day FOMC meeting ends with a decision this afternoon; Fed manufacturing surveys for January suggest weakness in that sector; BOC also meets; Chile is expected to hike rates 125 bp to 5.25%; ECB’s Simkus warned of major economic risks from the situation in Ukraine
  • Benjamin Franklin's eye close-up from one hundred dollar bill
    January 25, 2022
    • Investor Services
    U.S. stock markets had a wild ride yesterday; the two-day FOMC meeting starts today and ends tomorrow with a decision; we repeat, anyone looking for some sort of Powell Put this week will be sorely disappointed; all the major economies are feeling the pinch from omicron; tensions at the Russia-Ukraine border remain high; German IFO business climate for January was solid; the hits keep coming for U.K. Prime Minister Johnson;
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    January 24, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Markets are picking up this week where the left off on Friday, firmly in risk-off mode; the adjustment in U.S. yields have been delayed by these risk-off impulses; Mexico reports mid-January CPI data; tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain high; eurozone and UK reported weak preliminary January PMI readings; Italian lawmakers start the process of choosing the next president
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    January 23, 2022
    • Investor Services
    Here's a look at the main drivers in Developed Markets this week.