Strategy Insight: The End of the Beginning

April 14, 2020
BBH Chief Investment Strategist Scott Clemons discusses recent improvements in the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic implications, noting that there is still more work to be done before business resumes as usual.

Amidst a global health crisis where “good” has become a relative term, last week offered some relatively good news. Although new cases of COVID-19 continue to mount around the world – and, sadly, fatalities as well – the rate of increase appears to have slowed, as social distancing measures introduced weeks or even months ago reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus. Closer to home, U.S. states are reporting similar trends. The three-day moving average of new cases in every state in the nearby graph has fallen below 10%. It is possible that some of this apparent improvement is due to reporting gaps over the holiday weekend for Good Friday and Passover, but we expect that further data this week will confirm this welcome trend.


Chart illustrating the change in the three-day moving average of newly diagnosed cases by area in U.S., with a downward slope.

 

We are not yet out of the woods. Newly diagnosed cases are still increasing, albeit at a more moderate pace, and ICU admissions and fatalities continue to rise more rapidly than diagnoses as newly hospitalized patients go through treatment. It may still be weeks before the pace of deaths begins to wane, as fatalities are naturally a lagging indicator.

The economy will be a lagging indicator as well, although we are beginning to get a picture of how swiftly economic activity has ground to a virtual halt. In the past three weeks (March 14 through April 3), 16.6 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance, equivalent to 11% of the labor force and twice the total job losses incurred during the entirety of the global financial crisis. The reported unemployment rate for March was a modest 4.4%, but unemployment today is almost certainly closer to 15% and still rising.

Regular readers of our market and economic analysis will recall that personal consumption is of paramount importance to the U.S. economy. Sixty-eight percent of gross domestic product (GDP) consists of individual spending decisions, and when 15% of the labor force is out of work, and the other 85% is either anxious about their jobs, cutting back their spending or simply unable to spend as much because they are confined to their homes, the economic outlook is unarguably bleak. GDP is only calculated quarterly, and then released a month after the quarter-end, so we will not be able to quantify the economic damage of second quarter 2020 until July 30. By that point, we will hopefully be well along the twin paths to recovery in terms of both public health and economic activity, although at present neither of those paths are well defined.

Over the next few weeks, we will begin to get a clearer picture of the damage wrought at the corporate level, as public companies report their first quarter earnings and provide additional information on how they are faring in a radically and swiftly changing environment. Banks are historically among the first to report after the quarter ends, and we will hear from most of the larger financial institutions this week: JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Tuesday, Bank of America, U.S. Bancorp, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs on Wednesday, Bank of New York on Thursday and State Street on Friday. By the end of the week we should have better insight into commercial financial conditions.

Consensus expectations currently call for an overall decline of 9% in operating earnings for the S&P 500 for the first quarter, followed by a drop of 18% in the second quarter and 4% in the third quarter, before a modest recovery in profitability takes hold in the fourth quarter (see the circled data in the nearby bar graph). The quality and accuracy of these forecasts is questionable, given the severity of the economic downturn and the temptation for companies to write off as much as they can when there is such an easy culprit to blame.


Chart showing S&P 500 operating earnings growth from 2006 to 2020, with consensus expectations for 2020 (negative Q1-Q3, positive Q4).

 

Financial markets moved sharply higher last week in response to a decline in the pace of new COVID-19 cases and further action from the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, April 9 – just before the holiday weekend – the Fed launched a Municipal Liquidity Facility to support the municipal bond market, revealed the details of the Main Street Lending Program focused on supporting larger businesses with up to 10,000 employees, expanded the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities to include non-investment grade securities and created the Paycheck Protection Program Facility to fund loans to small businesses authorized by the Small Business Administration and implemented through commercial banks. The price tag for these new initiatives comes in somewhere around $2.3 trillion. Not bad for a Thursday morning.

The S&P 500 rose 12% in a shortened four-day trading week and is now up an impressive 25% from the recent low of March 23. As much as we would like to conclude that the market is rising in expectation of the end of this crisis, we fear that too much uncertainty lingers to confirm a market bottom, at least yet. The economic and corporate cost of the national response to COVID-19 is far from clear, as is the process and timing of restarting sections of the economy. As success in lowering the rate of new infections is confirmed over the days and weeks to come, we expect that policymakers and health officials at local, state and national levels will increasingly turn their attention to figuring out how to safely reopen parts of the economy. We will return to this theme in next week’s commentary.

After suffering a string of defeats in the early years of World War II, Great Britain finally achieved a decisive victory under the leadership of Field Marshal Lord Montgomery in the Second Battle of El Alamein in November 1942. Days later, Prime Minister Winston Churchill celebrated the victory in a speech at Mansion House in London, but at the same time warned that the war was far from over, despite victory in North Africa. “This is not the end,” Churchill warned his audience of parliament members. “It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Success in reducing the number of new COVID-19 cases, to be followed hopefully by a similar decline in other measures such as ICU admissions and fatalities, is a welcome win in the war against the novel coronavirus. It is, nevertheless, just the end of the beginning. There is much work to be done before America is once again open for business.

Opinions, forecasts, and discussions about investment strategies represent the author’s views as of the date of this commentary and are subject to change without notice. References to specific securities, asset classes, and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations. Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. (“BBH”) may be used as a generic term to reference the company as a whole and/or its various subsidiaries generally.  This material and any products or services may be issued or provided in multiple jurisdictions by duly authorized and regulated subsidiaries. This material is for general information and reference purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or investment advice and is not intended as an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy securities, services or investment products. Any reference to tax matters is not intended to be used, and may not be used, for purposes of avoiding penalties under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, or other applicable tax regimes, or for promotion, marketing or recommendation to third parties. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed, and reliance should not be placed on the information presented.  This material may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted, or any of the content disclosed to third parties, without the permission of BBH. All trademarks and service marks included are the property of BBH or their respective owners. © Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 2020.  All rights reserved PB-03492-2020-04-13

This browser is not fully supported by our public website and may not display or function as expected for this reason. Please note, the Infuse Portal and BBH client applications fully support the IE 11 browser.

Important Information for Non-U.S. Residents

You are required to read the following important information, which, in conjunction with the Terms and Conditions, governs your use of this website. Your use of this website and its contents constitute your acceptance of this information and those Terms and Conditions. If you do not agree with this information and the Terms and Conditions, you should immediately cease use of this website. The contents of this website have not been prepared for the benefit of investors outside of the United States. This website is not intended as a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument or any investment management services for any investor who resides in a jurisdiction other than the United States1. As a general matter, Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. and its subsidiaries (“BBH”) is not licensed or registered to solicit prospective investors and offer investment advisory services in jurisdictions outside of the United States. The information on this website is not intended to be distributed to, directed at or used by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not access the website.  Under certain circumstances, BBH may provide services to investors located outside of the United States in accordance with applicable law. The conditions under which such services may be provided will be analyzed on a case-by-case basis by BBH. BBH will only accept investors from such jurisdictions or countries where it has made a determination that such an arrangement or relationship is permissible under the laws of that jurisdiction or country. The existence of this website is not intended to be a substitute for the type of analysis described above and is not intended as a solicitation of or recommendation to any prospective investor, including those located outside of the United States. Certain BBH products or services may not be available in certain jurisdictions. By choosing to access this website from any location other than the United States, you accept full responsibility for compliance with all local laws. The website contains content that has been obtained from sources that BBH believes to be reliable as of the date presented; however, BBH cannot guarantee the accuracy of such content, assure its completeness, or warrant that such information will not be changed. The content contained herein is current as of the date of issuance and is subject to change without notice. The website’s content does not constitute investment advice and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. There is no guarantee that any investment objectives, expectations, targets described in this website or the  performance or profitability of any investment will be achieved. You understand that investing in securities and other financial instruments involves risks that may affect the value of the securities and may result in losses, including the potential loss of the principal invested, and you assume and are able to bear all such risks.  In no event shall BBH or any other affiliated party be liable for any direct, incidental, special, consequential, indirect, lost profits, loss of business or data, or punitive damages arising out of your use of this website. By clicking accept, you confirm that you accept  to the above Important Information along with Terms and Conditions.

 
1BBH sponsors UCITS Funds registered in Luxembourg, in certain jurisdictions. For information on those funds, please see bbhluxembourgfunds.com


captcha image

Type in the word seen on the picture

I am a current investor in another jurisdiction