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Brexit – On to the Next Course

January 19, 2018 |

With “sufficient progress” made on initial Brexit negotiations, the next phase of talks between the EU and UK will focus on their future relationship. After months of deliberation, it’s still unclear whether we will ultimately see a soft, medium, or hard Brexit.


In the last few weeks of 2017, the EU and UK made welcome progress on red line Brexit issues such as citizens' rights, the financial settlement, and the Northern Ireland border issue. The next round of talks (Phase Two) will focus primarily on the transition period and framework for their future relationship. Phase Two is also likely to shape the terms of any reciprocal market access agreement, which will likely include an extended transition period in which the UK will continue to follow European regulations.

Despite months of negotiation, it is still difficult to predict what form of Brexit will ultimately come to be. However, there are some things that now appear clear. Moving to Phase Two dialogue indicates that “no deal” or “no Brexit” options are low probabilities. It also seems unlikely negotiations will lead to a bespoke financial services arrangement. We expect the outcome to look more like a single all-encompassing trade agreement and all three types of Brexit remain on the menu: soft, medium, and hard. Read more from

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IS-03614-2018-01-19   Expiration Date: 01/31/2020